ISW: Ukraine must seize initiative on battlefield to counter Russian advantages

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 5 May that Ukraine should contest the theater-wide initiative as soon as possible, as ceding it to Russia for the entirety of 2024 would present Russia with several benefits. According to the Financial Times, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that Ukraine will look to conduct a counteroffensive operation to recapture Russian-occupied territory in 2025 after using US military assistance to blunt further Russian advances in 2024. Sullivan said that US aid will not "instantly flip the switch" on the battlefield situation and expects Russian forces to continue making marginal advances for an unspecified time. According to the ISW, a Ukrainian "active defense" into 2025 would cede the theater-wide initiative to Russian forces for over a year, allowing the Russian command to shape preferable conditions by determining the timing, location, and intensity of attacks, and controlling the resources Ukrainian forces expend over this protracted period. A Russian milblogger also said that Russian forces can conduct glide bomb air strikes against Ukrainian positions for the remainder of 2024 if Ukraine does not launch a counteroffensive operation that pressures Russian forces this year. The ISW assesses that tactically significant Russian advances northwest of Avdiivka and the potential threat of a Russian offensive operation against Kharkiv Oblast are directly linked to Russia's control over the theater-wide initiative and its ability to indiscriminately conduct glide bomb strikes along the frontline, constrained and degraded Ukrainian defensive operations. The ISw reported that Ukraine's ability to liberate its territory and conduct counteroffensive operations rests on the decisions in the West, Russia, and Ukraine, and any external efforts to impose a timeline on Ukrainian counteroffensive operations ignore the reality of the battlefield situation. Other takeaways from the report:

• The Russian military reportedly redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast as part of a larger ongoing Russian effort to gather an operationally significant force for a possible future Russian offensive operation against northeastern Ukraine and Kharkiv City.
• The Russian military is reportedly preparing and forming the Northern Grouping of Forces from elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) to primarily operate in the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction.
• European intelligence agencies reportedly warned their governments that Russia is planning to conduct “violent acts of sabotage” across Europe as part of a “more aggressive and concerted effort” against the West.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk and Robotyne.

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