ISW: Russia uses Yenakiyeve bus strike claim to legitimize devastating campaign against Ukrainian cities
Pushilin reports 8 killed; Kyiv has not commented as Moscow accelerates retaliation rhetoric and threatens punishment.
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ISW
162 posts
ISW: a Belarus ground invasion is very unlikely, but Russia may use Belarusian airspace to hit western Ukraine
Belarus has neither massed forces on the Ukrainian border nor would Russia have the reserves to support a Belarusian ground push, per the assessment.
Russia’s new Kyiv strike threat is posturing for the Victory Day humiliation, not retaliation—ISW
EU, France, Poland, and Ukraine answered Moscow's evacuation demand in lockstep. The diplomats are staying.
Ukraine did math on Tuapse — and Russian reaction tells rest
Ukraine's drones hit Tuapse four times in a single month. Each strike deepening the wound on Russia's only Black Sea oil refinery.
Russia hit a record oil revenue month—yet the federal budget still came up short
Sberbank’s CFO forecasts the ruble will fall to 90 per dollar. Three ports already show 13–43% drops.
Moscow’s offensive has lost ground since it started — yet Russia’s top brass declared Luhansk Oblast fully seized for the fourth time
Gerasimov claimed Russia seized 1,700 km² in 2026 and controls 70% of Lyman, but ISW’s evidence shows gains of only about one fifth of that area, none of the city, and territorial losses since 1 March.
ISW: Russia likely plans to exploit European telecom loopholes for Shahed guidance — as it already does near Poland, Romania, Belarus
Ukraine's MoD adviser said Russia orders SIM cards from T2, a Rostelecom subsidiary, for Shahed drones, which then switch to neighboring countries’ networks when Ukraine blocks them.
Russia claims full capture of Luhansk Oblast for the third time — Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade notes it’s still holding the line there
ISW confirms Ukrainian forces control the last 0.16% of the oblast, including the settlements of Nadiya and Novoyehorivka, which Russia's military grouping Zapad claimed to have "liberated" on 1 April.
Kyiv offered Easter ceasefire. Moscow dismissed it. ISW says don’t be surprised.
ISW assesses Ukraine continues to demonstrate genuine readiness to negotiate, while Russia's response indicates it remains unwilling to engage in good faith.
Russia’s spring offensive has stalled at Ukraine’s Fortress Belt — ISW says it won’t break through in 2026
The 3rd Combined Arms Army, the only Russian force positioned to push directly on Sloviansk, hasn't gained ground in a week after a month of tactically significant advances east of the city.
ISW: Russia has likely begun its anticipated spring-summer 2026 offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast
ISW assessed on 21 March, adding that Russian forces are unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026 but will likely make some tactical gains at significant cost.
Ukraine’s counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are burning Russia’s operational reserves — ISW says Russia’s spring offensive may be spoiled
In the Oleksandrivka direction Russian forces have switched from offense to active defense.
Russia cuts Duma internet, moves to block Telegram through VPNs ahead of 2026 elections, ISW says
Russian authorities have cut mobile data across Moscow City since 5 March and severed internet access inside the…
ISW: Ukraine’s two-drive advance in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was designed to push Russia out and pre-empt its spring offensive — and has liberated over 400 km²
Ukraine's gains were enabled by a specific combination of factors: infantry infiltrated through dispersed Russian lines under snow and fog that grounded Russian drones, while Ukrainian forces simultaneously suppressed drone-based defenses.
Lights on, economy limping: Ukraine’s real energy reckoning in March 2026
Russia failed to freeze Ukraine this winter. All 15 thermal plants are still destroyed. And Russia has already moved on to trains.
ISW: Russia appears to have seized Pokrovsk after two-year battle – but gains stall beyond the ruins
Ukrainian forces not observed in the town since late January, ISW says.
ISW: Battlefield realities disprove Russia’s claim that Ukrainian defeat is inevitable
The fifth year of the invasion begins with Ukrainian forces making their most significant gains since the Kursk incursion while Russia faces mounting setbacks.
Defending a city that no longer exists — Ukraine’s impossible fight in Vovchansk
With every building destroyed, there's no infrastructure to anchor a defensive line, yet Ukrainian troops in the south refuse to withdraw as Russian forces attempt flanking operations from both sides, the military says.
Bilateral deals for Washington, maximalist war aims for Moscow — ISW maps the Kremlin’s two-track play
While Lavrov blamed Ukraine and the EU and railed against Western security guarantees, Kremlin officials were at the same time calling on Washington to lift “illegal” sanctions and calculate the price of frozen US–Russian commerce.
Russia’s election demand for Ukraine comes with a catch — only a pro-Kremlin result will do, ISW says
Moscow uses the "illegitimate government" claim to insist on controlling Ukraine's politics. ISW warns the US must lock in security guarantees before any territory deal to prevent Russia from rejecting them after Ukraine has already committed to concessions.