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British Intel: Avdiivka likely to remain in Ukrainian control over coming weeks

Russian forces are trying to bypass Ukrainian defenses and enter Avdiivka. However, Ukrainian forces would remain in control over Avdiivka in the near future, as the main supply route remains undamaged and Ukrainian forces make local counter-attacks in the area.
Assessed control of terrain around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast. Credit: ISW
British Intel: Avdiivka likely to remain in Ukrainian control over coming weeks

Ukrainian counter-attacks are holding Russian forces from progressing further within Avdiivka, Donetsk oblast, the UK Defense Ministry reported on 27 January.

According to the British Defense Ministry, Avdiivka will likely remain in Ukrainian control over the coming weeks, as “the main supply route remains intact and Ukrainian forces make local counter-attacks.”

Russian forces continue attempting to bypass Ukrainian fortifications by entering the city edges via service tunnels. The UK intel said that this is a method of infiltration they have been trying since October 2023, the time Russian forces started their offensive operation on Avdiivka.

The UK intel said that Avdiivka is still the main priority for Russian forces.

“The Russians are mounting a three-pronged attack to encircle the city from the south and north, and also fighting on the outskirts of the eastern quarter of Avdiivka city itself,” they tweeted.

Russian forces have suffered heavy personnel and armoured vehicle losses, frequently caused by Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicle munitions.

The British intel also reported that Russia continues its offensive across multiple axes, aligning with its strategic objective to capture the Donbas.

Russian forces captured the village of Krokhmalne in Kharkiv Oblast on 21 January and Vesele near Bakhmut on 18 January. However, the UK intel reported that these are “strategically insignificant.”

Vesele had a pre-war population of 102, and Krokhmalne had 45.

“This represents a continuation of Russia’s minor incremental gains whilst Ukraine focuses on active defense,” British Ministry reported.

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