Russia is likely going to claim that Donetsk’s Bakhmut has been captured to “align with the anniversary, regardless of the reality on the ground,” according to the British Ministry of Defense’s intelligence update.
Meanwhile, the ministry says, tensions within the Russian leadership will likely increase unless Russia’s spring offensive succeeds.
The ministry tweeted:
- “Russia continues to pursue several offensive axes in eastern Ukraine: Vuhledar, Kremina, and Bakhmut. Casualties reportedly remain high, particularly in Bakhmut and Vuhledar. Specifically, the ‘elite’ 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigades have sustained very high losses in Vuhledar and are likely combat ineffective.”
- “Russian forces are likely under increasing political pressure as the anniversary of the invasion draws near. It is likely that Russia will claim that Bakhmut has been captured to align with the anniversary, regardless of the reality on the ground.”
- “If Russia’s spring offensive fails to achieve anything then tensions within the Russian leadership will likely increase.”
Russo-Ukrainian War. Day 361: Ukraine anticipates Russian provocations on 23-24 February
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Tags: Bakhmut, British intelligence
