Kremlin denies “provocative messages” about upcoming second mobilization wave – ISW

Soldiers Russian mobilization

Mobilized Russians. File photo: TASS 

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In its December 6 Russian offensive campaign assessment, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War says that the Kremlin directly responded to Russian rumors of a second wave of mobilization in an apparent effort to manage growing societal concern and recentralize information about the war with the Russian government and its authorized outlets.

Russia preparing for further covert mobilization even as the fall conscription cycle underway – ISW

Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov on December 6 urged Russians to rely on communications from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the president and to ignore the “provocative messages” published on social media platforms such as Telegram regarding a second wave of mobilization.

Peskov’s statement is likely aimed at discrediting the growing influence of both Russian opposition and pro-war Telegram channels that have been consistently reporting on indicators of the Kremlin’s intention to resume mobilization in 2023.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is also increasing measures to prevent mobilized men and their families from complaining about mobilization problems. Putin, for example, signed a law banning rallies in government buildings, universities, schools, hospitals, ports, train stations, churches, and airports—likely to suppress riots and protests among mobilized men and their families.

Also, the ISW noted that the Kremlin seems to be departing from the limited war messaging it has been using to reduce concerns among the general Russian public about the war, likely in an effort to condition the public for future mobilization waves.

According to ISW, Putin’s decision to order a second wave of mobilization, general mobilization, or even announce a formal declaration of war with Ukraine will not fix the inherent constraints on Russian military power available for the war in Ukraine in the short term. The Kremlin’s force generation efforts remain contingent on its ability to invest time and supplies into its personnel, requirements that are badly at odds with the Kremlin’s lack of long-term strategic planning.

Read also:

Russia may soon need new wave of mobilization as mobilized Russians are not trained – Zelenskyy

UK sanctions Russian officials behind mobilization, prisoner recruitment into Wagner PMC

Russia’s Defense Minister announces end of mobilization in Russia, decree not signed yet

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