Russian forces have moved toward “a long-term, defensive posture” on the front lines in Ukraine. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and along the Kreminna-Lysychansk line, and limited ground assaults in Kherson Oblast. Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast. Russia’s security services are working to undermine Moldova’s pro-Western government. Ukraine has brought home 10 Ukrainian POWs and recovered the body of a dead American volunteer. Poland dismantled four monuments glorifying the soviet-era Red Army. Polish Senate designated the Russian government “a terrorist regime.”
Daily overview — Summary report, October 29
The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, October 28, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below.
The enemy is trying to hold the temporarily captured territories, concentrates efforts on restraining the actions of the Defense Forces in certain directions, while at the same time not stopping offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.
During the day, units of the Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of populated areas: Andriivka, Bilohorivka, Luhansk oblast; Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Vremivka, Zelenopillya, Soledar, Mayorsk, Mariinka, Nevelske, Novobakhmutivka, Pervomaiske, Yakovlivka of the Donetsk oblast.
The enemy is shelling the positions of our troops along the line of contact, carrying out fortification equipment of positions in certain directions, in particular, on the left bank of the Dnipro River, actively conducting aerial reconnaissance.
Violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of war, it continues to strike critical infrastructure and the homes of the civilian population.
During the day, the enemy launched fifteen air strikes and one missile attack, carried out more than forty MLRS attacks. The settlements of Bilohirka, Nova Kamianka, Novohredneve in the Kherson oblast, Stepove in the Zaporizhzhia oblast, and Mariinka and Pavlivka in the Donetsk oblast were affected by this.
In the Volyn and Polissya directions, the situation remains without significant changes. The republic of belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine, providing its territory, airspace and infrastructure. There is still a threat of missile and air strikes, including the use of attack UAVs.
The enemy shelled in other directions:
- in the Siversky and Slobozhansk directions – from the territory of the russian federation, using artillery of various types, in the areas of the settlements of Boyaro-Lezhachi, Vodolahi, Hirky, Pysarivka and Ryzhivka of the Sumy oblast and Vilkhuvatka, Vovchansk, Okhrimivka and Staritsa of the Kharkiv oblast;
- in the Kupiansk and Lyman directions – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Druzhelyubivka and Petro-Ivanivka settlements of the Kharkiv oblast; Zarichne, Yampolivka of the Donetsk oblast and Makiivka and Nevsky in the Luhansk oblast;
- in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks and artillery of various calibers, in the areas of the settlements of Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Verkhnyokamianske, Opytne, Rozdolivka, Soledar, Mayorsk and Yakovlivka;
- in the Avdiivka direction, the enemy fired mortars, barrel and rocket artillery near Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Mariinka, Nevelske, Novomykhailivka, and Pervomaiske in the Donetsk oblast.
- In the Novopavlivsky and Zaporizhzhia directions, the enemy carried out artillery fire in the areas of 15 settlements. Among them are Bilohirya, Hulyaipole, Dorozhnyanka, Zaporizhzhia oblast, and Vuhledar, Novosilka, Pavlivka, and Prechistivka, Donetsk oblast.
Areas of 20 settlements near the contact line were damaged by fire in the South Buhka direction.
According to detailed information, damage to the enemy’s manpower and equipment in the previous days has been confirmed. Thus, 8 units of weapons and military equipment of various types were destroyed and up to 120 servicemen were wounded in the Zaporizhzhia oblast. On the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson oblast, about 100 wounded occupiers were delivered to medical facilities.
The command of the Russian occupying forces, in order to avoid panic among the personnel, tries by all means to hide the real losses of servicemen.
The so-called “evacuation” from the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson oblast continues. Considerable attention is paid to the export of medical equipment and property of, as the occupiers say, “nationalized” enterprises. Thus, from the settlement of Bilozerka, the equipment of the local hospital is taken to the cities of Skadovsk and Henichesk. At the same time, the strengthening of the enemy group on the right-bank part of the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region by mobilized military personnel numbering up to 1,000 people is noted. They are resettled in the homes of local residents who have left these areas.
Aviation of the Defence Forces carried out 29 strikes during the past day. It was confirmed that 21 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment of the enemy, 3 strongholds and 5 positions of anti-aircraft missile systems were destroyed. Air defence units shot down 2 enemy helicopters Ka-52 and one Su-25 attack aircraft.
Ukrainian missile forces and artillery struck 4 areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment and 1 warehouse with enemy ammunition.
Military Updates
- The Turkish defense company Baykar is planning to complete the construction of its UAV manufacturing plant in Ukraine in two years, its chief executive Haluk Bayraktar said on 27 October, Reuters reported.
- Polish general Piotr Trytek has become the commander of the EU mission to train Ukrainian troops, RMF24 reported.
- Vladimir Putin said that he directly ordered his defense minister to make a series of calls to top Nato commanders this week over the potential detonation of a “dirty bomb” in Ukraine.
- Putin keeps rejecting Ukrainian sovereignty in a way fundamentally incompatible with serious negotiations – ISW
- Russia has launched more than 30 drones against Ukraine in the past two days, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday night.
- A top aide to Putin has traveled to the occupied southern city of Kherson, an official installed by Moscow said Thursday, as Russian forces brace for a Ukrainian offensive to recapture the region.
- On the afternoon of October 27, a large-scale fire broke out again in the occupied Shakhtarsk, Donetsk Oblast at an oil storage facility.
- Russian forces have moved toward “a long-term, defensive posture” on the front lines in Ukraine over the past six weeks, according to the British Defense Ministry.
- South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol told reporters that Seoul had not supplied lethal weapons to Ukraine. Earlier Putin said that relations between Seoul and Moscow would be destroyed should South Korea arm Ukraine.
- Ukraine presented its Delta digital system, which integrates all intelligence data, provides real-time monitoring of the battlefield, and enhances interoperability, at the NATO TIDE Sprint conference, an event to “solve tomorrow’s interoperability challenges today.” The conference took place on 24-28 October 2022. TIDE Sprint is NATO’s Think-Tank for Information Decision and Execution Superiority (TIDE).
- The United States has accelerated the fielding of a more accurate version of its mainstay nuclear bomb to NATO bases in Europe, according to a US diplomatic cable and two people familiar with the issue, Politico says.
- US-trained special forces Afghan veterans, abandoned by the US and Western states when Afghanistan fell to the Taliban, say they are receiving offers to join the Russian military, Foreign Policy reports, citing its sources in the Afghani Army and intelligence.
- The OSINT project Belaruskiy Gayun, which monitors Russian military activity in Belarus, writes that the only locations in Belarus from where Russia could launch Shahed-136 drone attacks on Ukraine are two zones in the Chernobyl exclusion zone.
- YePPO [E-AirDefense], a Ukrainian app for crowdsourcing Russian cruise missile trajectories, has helped down the first Russian missile, one of its developers Hennadiy Duldin told on Facebook.
According to the intelligence update published by the UK Ministry of Defense, Russian ground forces are transitioning to a “long-term, defensive posture” in most frontline areas as the Russian units in the area are “severely undermanned”:
- Russia has “likely augmented some of its units west of the Dnipro River with mobilised reservists. However, this is from an extremely low level of manning.” According to the update, in September, Russian officers described companies in the Kherson sector as consisting of between six and eight men each, while the companies should have around 100 personnel.
- In the last six weeks “there has been a clear move from Russian ground forces to transition to a long-term, defensive posture on most areas of the front line in Ukraine. This is likely due to a more realistic assessment that the severely undermanned, poorly trained force in Ukraine is currently only capable of defensive operations.”
- “Even if Russia succeeds in consolidating long-term defensive lines in Ukraine, its operational design will remain vulnerable. To regain the initiative, it will need to regenerate higher quality, mobile forces which are capable of dynamically countering Ukrainian breakthroughs and conducting their own large-scale offensive operations,” the update reads.
Losses of the Russian army
According to the October 28 morning assessment of the Russian losses in Ukraine by Ukraine’s General Staff, the total combat losses of Russian troops from 24 February to 28 October amounted to approximately 69,700 with 480 Russian soldiers eliminated on 27 October.
According to the General Staff, the Russian equipment losses are as follows:
- tanks: 2,640 (+9 on Oct 27)
- armored fighting vehicles: 5,378 (+14)
- artillery systems: 1,698 (+8)
- multiple rocket launchers: 379 (+0)
- anti-aircraft warfare systems: 192 (+0)
- aircraft: 272 (+1)
- helicopters: 251 (+2)
- operational-tactical level UAVs: 1401 (+3)
- cruise missiles: 351 (+0),
- warships / boats: 16 (+0)
- transport vehicles and fuel tanks: 4088 (+10)
- special equipment: 151 (+1)
Ukraine downed two Russian Ka-52 helicopters, one Su-25 attack aircraft on Oct 27 – GenStaff
Humanitarian
- The Deputy Head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, reported that on 27 October, oblast administrations confirmed the deaths of 10 civilians caused by the Russian attacks, 12 were injured in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. On 27 October, Russian troops also attacked residential areas in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Mykolaiv City, Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts, according to local authorities.
- The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) delivered to Ukraine 2.3 million doses of mRNA vaccine against COVID-19 Comirnaty from the Pfizer-BioNTech company, which were provided by the US government as part of the COVAX initiative, European Pravda reported.
- Russia’s security services are working to undermine Moldova’s pro-Western government, according to sensitive materials obtained by Ukrainian intelligence and, The Washington Post reports.
- A new timetable of scheduled blackouts will be introduced in Kyiv and the surrounding area over the coming days, after Iranian drones caused more damage to energy infrastructure in Kyiv region earlier, the city’s administration said.
- Elon Musk “has inserted himself in some of the world’s most combustible conflicts,” The New York Times wrote.
- As part of preparations for this winter period, Kyiv Oblast has already prepared 754 heating points, which are located in each of the 69 communities of the Oblast, as Oblast Administration reports.
- On 26 October 2022, the police of Kharkiv Oblast, together with the prosecutor’s office of the Kharkiv Oblast, began exhuming the bodies of Ukrainian soldiers buried in a mass grave who were killed during the Ukrainian retreat in April.
- Ukraine has brought home 10 Ukrainian POWs and recovered the body of a dead American volunteer, Andrii Yermak, Head of the President’s Office of Ukraine, posted on Telegram
Environmental
- The International Energy Agency forecast that the Russo-Ukraine war would spur countries to pursue more sustainable energy policies, helping global emissions to peak in 2025.
- On 27 October, Poland dismantled four monuments glorifying the soviet-era Red Army in four different towns, Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) reported. The dismantling of monuments was carried out under the law that prohibits the propagation of communism or any other totalitarian system amid the decommunisation of the public space ongoing in Poland.
- Ukraine’s State Nuclear Regulatory Commission reports that Russia is conducting illegal construction at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and calls on the IAEA to investigate this, acting head of SNRC Oleh Korikov says.
Legal
- The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs asks law enforcement agencies to open a case against the Russian ombudswoman, who took away and “adopted” a child kidnapped in Mariupol.
- The United States and allies slammed Russia for wasting the time of the UN Security Council and spreading conspiracies for again raising its accusation that the US has “military biological programs” in Ukraine. “How much more of this nonsense do we have to endure?” Britain’s UN Ambassador Barbara Woodward asked the council Thursday.
- The United Nations is not aware of any biological weapons programs in Ukraine, the senior official in the Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA), Adedeji Ebo said at a briefing to the Security Council on 27 October. The US and its Western allies dismissed Russia’s claims that banned biological weapons activities are taking place in Ukraine with American support, calling the allegation disinformation and fabrications.
- The suspected Russian spy arrested in Norway this week recently attended a seminar on hybrid threats that included a scenario about responding to a pipeline explosion, according to Norwegian media, a coordinator for the group that hosted the event and a photograph from the event. Paivi Mattila, a professor at Laurea University of Applied Sciences in Finland who coordinates the EU-HYBNET program, told The Washington Post that the suspected spy attended the event.
- The Russian TV personality Ksenia Sobchak – Putin’s rumored goddaughter and the daughter of Vladimir Putin’s one-time boss – has fled to Lithuania, intelligence services in Vilnius said, after police in Moscow ostensibly raided one of her homes.
- The highest number of sexual crimes committed by Russians was recorded in Kyiv Oblast, Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Kateryna Pavlichenko said during a briefing at the Military Media Center.
- On October 26, the Polish Senate condemned Russian military aggression against Ukraine in a new resolution. Members of the Senate designated the Russian government “a terrorist regime” in the document and urged the international community to support investigations of Russian war crimes.
- Czechia has joined the regional ban on visas for Russians introduced jointly by Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
- In the eighth month since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and amid open mobilization, President Putin has moved Russia into a regime of “unprecedented restrictions” with the aim of boosting Russia’s war production, Moscow Times reported.
Support
- Australia will transfer 30 more Bushmaster APCs to Ukraine and send 70 instructors to the UK to train the Ukrainian military starting in 2023, the Australian Ministry of Defense confirmed. This brings the total number of gifted Bushmasters to 90.
- The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) handed over 100 generators to 22 Ukrainian communities, USAID reports on Twitter. Those will ensure the operations of hospitals, schools, and government agencies if the infrastructure is damaged by attacks by Russian troops.
Assessment
The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of 27 October 2022:
Key Takeaways
- Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to reject Ukrainian sovereignty in a way that is fundamentally incompatible with serious negotiations.
- A senior Russian official threatened that Russia could target Western commercial satellites supporting Ukraine.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and along the Kreminna-Lysychansk line.
- Russian forces are continuing to make defensive preparations along the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground assaults in Kherson Oblast.
- Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
- The Russian military sent mobilization notices to foreign citizens working in Russia.
- Yevgeny Prigozhin‘s Wagner Group may be further developing its air warfare capabilities and fielding more complex equipment on par with the conventional Russian military.
- Russian and occupation administration officials began seizing residents’ cell phones in Russian-occupied territories to support law enforcement and operational security measures.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)
Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on October 27. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and other Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked Russian positions in the direction of Mykolaivka and Orlianka, both just east of Kupiansk and about 30km northwest of Svatove. Russian milbloggers circulated footage of Russian forces firing a TOS-1 thermobaric multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) at Ukrainian positions reportedly in the direction of the Svatove-Kreminna highway. The TOS-1 is notably a military-district-level asset, which may indicate either that Russian forces are allocating higher-level artillery systems to this area due to an intent to prioritize operations in this area, or that Russian forces lack sufficient artillery systems or ammunition more appropriate for standard fire missions on the Svatove-Kreminna axis.
Russian sources also claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations along the Kreminna-Lysychansk line on October 27. The Russian MoD and other Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces launched an attack on Chervonopopivka, 6km northwest of Kreminna. Russian milbloggers reported that elements of the 144th and 3rd Russian motor rifle divisions of the 20th Combined Arms Army repelled Ukrainian attacks toward Kreminna and claimed that the BARS-13 (Russian Combat Reserve of the Country) detachment in this area is concerned about future Ukrainian assaults on Kreminna from multiple directions. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported fighting around Bilohorivka, indicating that Ukrainian offensive operations continue south of Kreminna as well.
Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)
Ukrainian military sources continued to state that Russian forces are conducting defensive operations along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in anticipation of future Ukrainian advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 27 that Russian troops are fortifying equipment in positions on the east bank of the Dnipro and conducting active aerial reconnaissance. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian forces are continuing to hold their positions and actively threatening Russian troops with artillery fire, forcing Russian forces to conduct active defensive measures.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops conducted limited ground attacks in Kherson Oblast on October 27. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian troops repelled Ukrainian attacks northwest of Kherson City and in western Kherson Oblast. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian troops are pulling reserves to the Davydiv Brid area in western Kherson Oblast and along the current frontline north of the Beryslav-Nova Kakhovka area.
Ukrainian and Russian sources continued to indicate on October 27 that Ukrainian forces are conducting an interdiction campaign to target Russian concentration areas and military assets in Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian strikes destroyed a Russian concentration area and ammunition depot around Beryslav. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command also stated that Ukrainian airstrikes hit Russian air defense forces and equipment in the Beryslav Raion on October 26. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops launched four HIMARS missiles at Kherson City, all of which Russian air defense intercepted, but ISW has not observed independent confirmation of the strike or of air defense activating over Kherson City on October 27. There is no open-source evidence that Russian forces have ever intercepted a HIMARS munition.
