Polish experts: Ukraine will not survive a third Maidan



Article by: Yury Savitsky
Translated by: Mariya Shcherbinina
Warsaw – How does Poland see Ukraine after the elections to the Verkhovna Rada? What kind of developments to Polish experts hope to see in Ukraine? Will Putin try to construct a land corridor to Crimea? These issues were discussed at the Ukraine After Elections meeting in Warsaw, organized by the Polish International Affairs Institute. 

Michał Kacewicz, observer with Newsweek Polska has a positive attitude towards the fact that Ukraine has elected mostly moderate politicians to the Parliament. “During these elections, radicalism perished as a political project. It is the object of big concern in Russia, because the Russians were counting on the nationalists to have a great representation in the Parliament and that would give them an opportunity to blame Ukraine for everything and spread propaganda saying Ukraine is fascist,” says Kacewicz.

On the other hand, expert Katarzyna Kwiatkowska-Moskalewicz calls the results of the elections in single-mandate districts quite pessimistic. She says that compromised politicians passed to the Verkhovna Rada through single-mandate districts. Michał Kacewicz considers the bane of Ukrainian political life to be the local oligarchical clans which push their representatives to the Parliament. The Polish observer says: “They have all the local governors, the police, the media in their pockets, as well as money, so they can construct the local political scene the way they want and the definitely influence what is happening in Kyiv. It is a powerful army of people, and this problem will undoubtedly exist in Ukraine for many years to come.”

Will it be difficult to rescue Ukraine from the oligarchs? 

Kwiatkowska-Moskalewicz shares her fears as to the new Ukrainian Parliament. She says: “I am afraid that it may so happen that the politicians who have spoken so much about reforms will resort to the smallest amount of resistance and approve reforms which will land the biggest blow to society. I am talking about what Tetyana Chornovol said, that a structure is being built to hit small and average businesses, but not oligarchs.”

Polish TVP correspondent Arleta Bojke shares Kwiatkowska-Moskalewicz’s opinion. She noted: “Influential political parties were financed by oligarchs, so it looks like it will be difficult to rescue Ukraine from them.”

Such an undesirable scenario for Ukraine, says Kwiatkowska-Mosckalewicz, may cause Maidan 3.0. And this, according to the expert, is very dangerous, as the enemies of Ukrainian statehood would take advantage of internal instability. “Everyone should find it obvious that this country cannot survive a third Maidan. If it began, this would have been used by Russia and the separatists for their own benefit. I hope that all the players of Ukrainian political life comprehend this more or less,” the expert noted.

Michał Kacewicz shares his thoughts on the probability of Russia creating a so-called land-based corridor to Crimea. “I think President Poroshenko will not have enough courage to suspend the land-based corridor to Crimea, on the contrary, when Russians have more and more problems with connection through the strait of Kerch, this land-based transportation will be increased, because Kyiv understands very well that as soon as they start blocking land-based connections to Crimea, Russians will start conquering Mariupol,” thinks Kacewicz.

Polish experts also spoke about the lustration law that was recently passed in Ukraine. According to Wojciech Konończuk from the Polish Institute for International Affairs, the Ukrainian lustration legislation was approved hastily and is incomplete. According to the expert, this may cause various negative consequences, for example, the emergence of corruption schemes which would weaken the effect of lustration.

Translated by: Mariya Shcherbinina

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