The new consensus: a “Novorossiya” as a Russian protectorate?

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2014/06/30 • Featured, News, Politics

Ihor Kolomoisky supports Viktor Medvedchuk for governor of Donetsk Oblast

by Vitalii Usenko and Dmytro Usenko

Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration Head Ihor Kolomoisky is sure that the appointment of Viktor Medvedchuk as governor of Donetsk Oblast is the last chance to avoid a full-scale war in Donbas, as reported by Oleksandr Tkachenko, CEO of the 1+1 media holding. Ligabusinessinform reports that Ihor Kolomoisky is the owner of this holding. War will be the only alternative to this deal, concludes Tkachenko on his Facebook page.

 

“Not only do I support Medvedchuk’s appointment as governor of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, now I aggressively advocate for it. And if the separatist leaders will not approve his candidacy, this will mean that they ignore Vladimir Putin, the godfather of Medvedchuk’s child,” Kolomoisky said in a telephone conversation with Tkachenko.

As Lifenews reported, “According to Ukrainian media, Vladimir Putin is the godfather of Viktor Medvedchuk’s daughter Daria. She was baptized in 2004 in the Kazan Cathedral in St. Petersburg. Svetlana Medvedeva [wife of future Russian Federation President Dmitri Medvedchuk] was the girl’s godmother.”

Tkachenko reported that Kolomoisky called Medvedchuk’s appointment “the last chance to establish peace in Donbas.”

Borys Filatov, Kolomoisky’s deputy in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast State Administration, confirmed on his Facebook page that the conversation between his boss and Tkachenko indeed took place. “Yes, this conversation really happened. I do not comment my boss’s considerations. I do not like to speak for others. It is against my rules to do so,” wrote Filatov.

Earlier, media reported that Viktor Medvedchuk and Nestor Shufrych may soon lead Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts as a compromise between the Ukrainian government leaders, the terrorists in Donbas, the Russian leadership, and the leaders of the West. Viktor Medvedchuk and Nestor Shufrych are close friends and have been connected to each other since at least 1998, the era of the United Social-Democratic Party.

These developments are quite realistic. The issue is that Kyiv, weakened by contradictions, does not fully control Ukraine’s Southern and Eastern regions. Note that all these regions (Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, etc.) each have their own versions of local armies which support Ukraine; e.g., the Donbas Battalion, Dnipro Battalion, and so on. These military formations arose due to Kyiv’s inability to protect the citizens of these regions from the Russian invasion or from Russian-backed terrorists. In his articlePoroshenko’s Zugzwang: The short sad history of a promising president,” Yuriy Romanenko called the execution of a similar scenario “Bosnia 2.0,” drawing an analogy with the state model which has been established in Bosnia and Herzegovina since the war of 1992-1995. It is characterized by the weakness of the state, which has insufficient resources to solve the contradictions between the various regions of the country.

On top of that, more and more voices are being raised in the US and the EU on the unproductiveness of sanctions against Russia, which are supposedly unnecessary if Russia does not further instigate war in Ukraine. President Poroshenko said during discussions in the framework of the EU summit: “We do not need sanctions [against Russia] for the sake of sanctions; we do not need some damage inflicted to Russia. We need peace and we need open dialogue and implementation of obligations taken.” Therefore, it seems that a consensus has been reached between the US, the EU, Russia, and Ukraine to establish a sort of “protectorate” on the Ukrainian regions that Putin christened by the historically obsolete name of “Novorossiya.” Such a “protectorate”, which could well mean full control over the region, is an unlikely reason for sanctions against Russia, as opposed to Russia’s current war-instigating activities. Furthermore, such a combination will not give Russia reason to enact its own sanctions against enterprises in the respective Ukrainian regions, and they can trade without barriers with both the East and West after the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement is implemented. Trilateral consultations with Russia on the implementation of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement are to be held in Brussels on July 11. Earlier, German Chancellor Angela Merkel pointed out that “without agreeing with Russia, the EU-Ukraine Association will not work.”

Let’s remember the goals of Russian defense enterprises, which could be jeopardized were Ukraine to steer fully toward the EU. This approach will preserve Russia’s access to the Ukrainian defense enterprises in Eastern Ukraine. As mentioned in the article “Slavic Brothers in arms and in money” from March 18, 2014, “The geography of the Ukrainian defense enterprises, with which Russia links its strategic doctrine, strikingly coincides with the geography of the points of instability in Ukraine.”

As discussed earlier, Russia counts on being armed with qualitatively new missile systems by 2018-2020, with a crucial part of their production relying on Ukrainian institutions and enterprises. The dependence of Russia’s defense industry on Ukraine cannot be overcome in so short a time. Getting Eastern and Southern Ukraine under its control could resolve this issue for Russia.

Is Ihor Kolomoisky’s approach directed toward balance between US, EU, Russian, and Ukrainian interests in his understanding? Or maybe he has just been informed about the hidden consensus between the US, the EU, Russia, and Ukraine on the regional status of Ukraine’s terrorist-besieged regions. Such a consensus can be inferred from this article by political analyst Pavlo Nuss, in which he alleges that Poroshenko is being compelled to resolve the situation in the east through exclusively peaceful means. “We forget that a European ultimatum has actually been issued to the president of Ukraine, requiring him to resolve the situation in the east only through peaceful means, using diplomacy to reach a political decision. Only then will the key EU countries be ready to ratify the Comprehensive Agreement on Association and Free Trade Zone between the EU and Ukraine, which was signed on June 27,” he said.

Unofficially, the US position was discussed during Zbigniew Brzezinski’s presentation “Confronting Russian Chauvinism:” “Ukraine will not be a member of NATO. But by the same token, Russia has to understand that Ukraine will not be a member of some mythical Eurasian Union that President Putin is trying to promote on the basis of this new doctrine of a special position for Russia in the world. Ukraine will not be a member of the Eurasian Union, but Ukraine can have a separate trade agreement with Russia, particularly taking into account the fact that certain forms of exchange and trade are mutually beneficial. Agricultural products, for example, from Ukraine to Russia. Industrial products that Russia needs and are being produced in Ukraine. Not many people realize that some of Russia’s best rockets, most of the engines for Russian civil aviation, and some of the rockets used by the United States are produced in Ukraine. It’s a profitable and successful industrial enterprise. And that, therefore, should be continued under an arrangement whereby Ukraine and Russia have a special treaty,” Brzezinski added.

This scenario was first mentioned in the article “The first target of Putin’s Russia is not only Crimea, but all Eastern and Southern Ukraine” on March 16, 2014. A strong resistance by the Ukrainian army, unexpected by Russia, a failure to fully destabilize Eastern and Southern Ukraine, and unexpectedly strong pressure from the West would force Russia to consider a backup scenario. This scenario, if military intervention fails, could be to put Crimea and possibly all of Eastern and Southern Ukraine under the “protectorate” of Russia, while formally leaving them a territory of Ukraine.

Some experts could believe that the US and the EU are losing their war for Ukraine to Russia as Russia’s race for world domination only starts in Ukraine. They suppose either that Putin moving to plan “B” in Ukraine, taking advantage of tariff politics and other issues that worry Ukrainian citizens in order to destabilize the situation, wrote political analyst Pavlo Nuss in a commentary for UNN on June 28. He writes that “Putin has moved to his plan ‘B’, which calls for manufacturing internal crises resulting in another election that removes President Poroshenko and installs a pro-Kremlin government.” Insubordination by regional armies not fully controlled by Kyiv could happen even earlier. As stated by Semen Semenchenko, commander of the volunteer battalion Donbas, “If after June 30th, when the unilateral ceasefire comes to an end, the government does not take concrete steps, the citizens of the east will start saving Donbas from terrorists themselves. If after the end of the ‘ceasefire’ we don’t see real steps once more, and the east is given to the PRD and PRL (Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic–Ed.), I myself as a citizen of Donetsk Oblast will create a People’s Republic of Ukraine to reunite with Ukraine. There is a real war underway, but not all in the country understand this. The majority of Donbas citizens are ready to take up arms and protect the region from terrorists,” said Semenchenko. Another example of unrest comes from volunteer battalion Dnipro, financed by Ihor Kolomoisky. Famous activist Parasiuk, who is in Dnipropetrovsk, addressed Poroshenko: “Mr. Poroshenko, you either do something or get the hell out and continue selling your chocolates. If you fail to act, you’ll witness such a Maidan that there will be no place in the world for you to hide!”

Protest

Rallies against the truce declared by the President of Ukraine were held today in Kyiv. Participants of the meeting read out their demands and gave them to the President through Gennady Zubco, first deputy head of the Presidential Administration.

“On behalf of the people of Ukraine…we appeal to you with the following requirements: stop the truce, impose martial law, issue a sufficient number of weapons for volunteer battalions, and enable them to implement measures to eliminate terrorists,” said the statement.

Putin seemed to outwit the US and the EU again. This is really like Zugzwang. President Petro Poroshenko faces very hard decisions to make in a short time. Complying with EU and Russian demands discussed during today’s telephone conversation between Petro Poroshenko, Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel and François Hollande, where the third round of negotiations was declared with the possibility of a truce extension, could result in riots and insubordination of military units not fully controlled by Kyiv. Decisive actions could result in huge support within Ukraine, but it could result in dissatisfaction of the EU.

Another option for Putin, mentioned  by Stratagema Centre for political analysis director Yuriy Romanenko, is turning Ukraine into weak confederation. “This option was carefully outlined by Radoslav Sikorsky. In this case, our motherland transforms into a confederation, where the external players establish zones of their influence. Russia gets guarantees to pump gas through our territories and control over the east of Ukraine. Right-bank Ukraine is pulled into the orbit of the association with the EU. However, what is the sense in the existence of such a state? I think the driver of Ukraine’s destruction in this case would the west of Ukraine and Kyiv, which would lead to another wave of escalation in the relations between the US and Russia,” he concludes.


Written by: Dr. Vitalii Usenko, MD, MBA, expert of the Center of Military-Political Studies in the sphere of psychology of communications, and by Dmytro Usenko, student at Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto

Edited by Alya Shandra and Robin Rohrback

 

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  • Kruton

    Kill the rebels.

    • sandy miller

      Kruton…the rebels aren’t the problem…Putin and the treacherous Ukrainian Oligarchs are the problem…they need to be taken out. Find them and deal with them.

      • Kruton

        Your right in that respect but as Lincoln said “one war at a time”.If Poroshenko proves himself to his soldiers that he is for victory they will be loyal to him. Crush the commufacist thugs and the oligarchs will shake in fear!

  • sandy miller

    Ukraine forget about US and EU…they have f—ed you. Kolomoisky has f—-ed you. He’s there to protect his business interest. How could I ever believe that any of these Oligarchs would ever give a shit about the country they were born in? Medvedchuk and Shufrych will f—- you! Kharkiv was never part of Novorossiya it’s always been part of Svoboda Ukraine and Dnipropetrovsk was only part of Novorossiy for 40 years. The Ukrainian kozaks come from that area…How can you allow those bastards to take your ancient lands away from you? All my ancestors are from that area. They are turning over in their graves. They will fight Russia in all kinds of ways. Putin will not get away with this. Those of us around the world will make sure of that. all the Ukrainian oligarchs will pay for their treachery. What a laugh going under Russia’s “protectorate.” Ukraine don’t go down without a fight. Get as many of those bastards as you can before a cease fire. Take out all the Oligarchs you can sleathly. Poroschenko is a tool you’ll have to leave in place and slowly but surely make sure you’re growing some powerful leaders and than stand on your own…no EU…no russia and no US. There are other countries make them your allies.

    • gmab

      Kuchma said yesterday after those “made for Putin” meetings that “Looks like the US is Ukraine’s only Ally”. He might be right. Poroshenko wasn’t a part of the criminal Yanukovych “Family”. And he won without a Party- less hassles for him. He stood up for Ukraine today & said call me when you do something concrete- in the meantime I’ll clean up MY country from RF terrorists. That took guts!! He knows most of East wants to stay United Ukraine. US will further support Ukraine if they see they’ll fight. Canada (Harper is a strong supporter) & Australia will definitely help. Both will send weapons/arms covertly & US- a few Nuclear heads should put Ukraine on nice solid ground to move ahead with their future & away from Putin’s maniacal control. In time, Putin’s own people will take him down!!

      • Vitalii Usenko

        Fully agree with Kuchma. “Looks like the US is Ukraine’s only Ally”. But another and most potent allies – Ukrainian army and people and their will to resist. Thanks to their efforts plans and behind the-curtain deals have not been successful. Pressure of Ukrainian people on President Poroshenko and on oligarchs prevented plans of these bastards for “protectorate” or any sort of Russian control over Ukraine.

    • Vitalii Usenko

      Pressure of Ukrainian people on President Poroshenko and on oligarchs prevented plans of these bastards for “protectorate” or any sort of Russian control over Ukraine. Ukrainian people are different now and ready to fight. One can not agree behind the curtains positions as it was before. I suppose that Poroshenko realized
      that if he under the pressure of EU and Russia agrees on next truce – next day
      he would not have been President.

  • Vitalii Usenko

    There
    was a lot of internal pressure on Poroshenko to oppose plans mentioned
    in the article. Volunteer battalions not fully controlled by Kyiv
    gathered in Kyiv in protests. If Poroshenko had not introduced military
    state and stop of ceasefire he would have
    been lost control over the situation. If plans are exposed you can
    prevent them from execution. Such plans were in reality and this is very
    shameful and disgraceful that EU countries supported such plans

    • sandy miller

      It’s more than shameful but I’m not surprised. EU, US useless..Ukraine can’t depend on anyone but themselves. Get Yanukvchs money…State take over all Oligarch’s businesses just like Putin did and resell them to anyone but Europeans or Americans. You don’t need to be part of EU or Russia. Find other allies. Go alternative energy…you won’t need any of those bastards.

      • Murf

        I don’t know why you say the EU and US are useless. Both have given millions in aid and loans. not to mention massive mount of political support.
        This is in sharp contrast to Russia’s efforts.
        I am glad they haven’t gotten more directly involved. This will be Ukraine’s victory and no one else.

        • sandy miller

          Havwe they given the aid yet? Ukraine needs arms and good military training. What political support have they given and what good has it done? How can it be Ukraine’s victory? what will they win with bats and frying pans? How do they fight an experienced foe with arms and plenty of money?. US and EU couldn’t even put real sanctions against Putin and his regime. Putin has tested Europe and US and hehe has won.

          • sandy miller

            I have made a commitment to make sure just as many people as possible stop buying German cars. Germany can go to hell. They along with Russia devastated Ukraine during WW2 and never had to pay for it. How could Ukraine ever trust Germany they have shown their true colors they are the same ruthless, brutal people they’ve always been. These are the same people who pretend to be so civilized and yet they even allowed their handicapped family members to be killed. What it p with their love lovetheir love of Hitler and now Putin is that they’re still a dangerous peopel.

          • Murf

            Loan guarantees are not a small matter. It takes money and lots of to fight a war. Also the US gave 5 million a month ago. You just can’t toss cash in their laps and expect it will get to the troops. The corrupt system and ossified army command is as much a problem as anything.(Have you seen a picture of ONE Ukrainian soldier eating an MRE?) Poroshenko should retire every officer over Colonel unless they have proven effective. At this point I would rather inexperienced but aggressive leaders then old school dinosaurs who regard the Russians as their “brothers”. Even the armature National Guard battalions have been more useful than a lot of the regulars.

  • Kruton

    Without military success Poroshenko will fail,the sword has been drawn by Putin,s gangsters he must be defeated.

    • Vitalii Usenko

      Pressure of Ukrainian people on President Poroshenko and on oligarchs prevented plans of these bastards for “protectorate” or any sort of Russian control over Ukraine.
      Ukrainian people are different now and ready to fight. One can not agree behind
      the curtains positions as it was before. I suppose that Poroshenko realized
      that if he under the pressure of EU and Russia agreed on next truce – next day
      he would not have been President.

      • Kruton

        Poroshenko must arm 250,000 teen age boys and crush the bolshevik humanoid mutant alcoholics!

  • Kruton

    Obliterate the commufacist nutjobs!

  • David Henderson

    A “Novorussia” inside Ukrainian borders would be the end of Ukraine and Putin would only laugh and attack Kiev and the other remaining cities of Ukraine a few months later.

    => No sense whatever to even think about such, it would be a suicide for Ukraine. Ukraine deserves to stay as an independent country like any other country. If not, then Putin would get unofficial license to pressure, blackmail, and attack again by its military forces any other country, too.

    • http://insidetheeyelive.com Dennis Fetcho, “The Fetch”

      There is no such thing as “Ukrainian borders”: Ukraine never filed the necessary papers nor did they negotiate with Russia and any other country for that matter, as to the legal border of “Ukraine”. Putin could take the whole of Ukraine and would not be violating any international laws – legally speaking.

      Having said that – reading the comments here and it seems as Western Ukrainians are near that of animals – very much like Israeli’s with their anti-human “lets go kill anything” that opposes us mentality.

      It is no wonder that only a US Israeli run government is the only real ally of Ukraine.

      • Murf

        You mean Poland,Slovakia, Romania, Georgia, Canada, Turkey are run by Israel?