The talks between President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel, President of France Francois Hollande and the head of Russia Vladimir Putin show that a new “Molotov-Ribbentropp pact” is being drawn up in regard to our country.
This was written by director the “Stratagema” Centre for political analysis Yuriy Romanenko on his Facebook page.
He notes that Merkel’s proposal to accept Viktor Medvedchuk as the spokesperson for the DNR and LNR, as well as the statements regarding the necessity to give power to the regions, the emergence of Russian observers together OSCE representatives at ATO roadblocks testifies that that Merkel and Putin are playing an accordant game.
According to Romanenko, the new Molotov-Ribbentropp pact may look as follows.
- A porous state with a weak centre after amendments to the Constitution.
- Russia controls the east based on local barons, feeds its economy with orders, oligarchs give almost nothing to Kyiv.
- Russia gets guarantees to pump gas, most probably in the form of control over the gas transportation system in collaboration with the EU (Germany).
- Aid from the IMF and other western institutes will not be given to subsidies for Donbas. It will be given to the part of the country which will be involved in the Association with the EU.
- Russia will try to broaden its loyalty belt using the mechanisms of control over state institutions.
- This will encounter resistance from the US. Shapes, stages and instruments I will think of and provide later.
In the article “Poroshenko’s Zugzwang. The short said history of a perspective President” Yuriy Romanenko called the execution of a similar scenario Bosnia 2.0 drawing the analogy with the state model which has been established in Bosnia and Herzegowina after the 1992-1995 war. It is characterised by the weakness of the state, which has insufficient resources to solve the contradictions between the various regions of the country.
Such an option “may become a form of continued agony of our Ukrainian centaur,” notes Romanenko.
“This option was carefully outlined by Radoslav Sikorsky. In this case out motherland transforms into a confederation, where the external players establish zones of their influence. Russia gets guarantees to pump gas through our territories and control over the east of Ukraine. Right-bank Ukraine is pulled into the orbit of the association with the EU. However, what is the sense in the existence of such a state? I think the driver of Ukraine’s destruction in this case would the west of Ukraine and Kyiv, which would lead to another wave of escalation in the relations between the US and Russia,” he concludes.
Translated by Mariya Shcherbinina