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Analysis

378 posts

Analysis of events in Ukraine

4 minute read

Analysis

As Trump readies Ukraine peace push, Europe’s military math doesn’t add up

Only seven of Europe's NATO members now fall short of minimum defense spending targets, but they include economic powerhouses Italy ($2.0 trillion GDP) and Spain ($1.4 trillion).

byLesia Dubenko

russia braces atacms strikes airfields yet expectations should tempered cover frontelligence insight kursk oblast air bases analysis

4 minute read

Analysis

Russia braces for ATACMS strikes on airfields, yet impact may be limited

Russia fortifies airbases for ATACMS strikes after the US lifts restrictions for Ukraine, but missile limits and defenses curb the ATACMS battlefield impact.

byTatarigami

Yasni Ochi Ukraine drone warfare Chasiv Yar

5 minute read

The gist

Ukraine’s digital forces eclipse NATO arms: defense report reveals war future

As Western hesitancy forces Ukraine to lean on homegrown innovation, the UK think tank reveals what its AI edge and delayed Western aid can teach NATO about the future of war

byEddie Priymak

5 minute read

The gist

It’s not 1,000 days of Russia’s war. It’s 3,925 — and Western risk aversion is setting up the next thousand

Every Western compromise with Russia since 2014 led to more aggression. Those pushing for settlement now are inviting the next escalation.

byAlya Shandra

8 minute read

Analysis

What Ukraine really expects from Trump’s cabinet picks

Ukraine sees opportunity in Trump's seemingly contradictory cabinet picks: hawks in charge of foreign policy, while controversial anti-Ukraine nominees face Senate blockade.

byLesia Dubenko

9 minute read

Ukraine builds a bridge to Trumpland

Gone are appeals to democratic values. Ukraine's new strategy for surviving Trump's America centers on deals, strategic assets, and a surprising China card.

byMaria Tril

German luxury cars keep flowing to Putin's elite. How BMW, Mercedes, and Audi "left" Russia

5 minute read

Analysis

German luxury cars keep flowing to Putin’s elite. How BMW, Mercedes, and Audi “left” Russia

German luxury cars were once the crown jewel of Russia's premium market, with over 100,000 vehicles sold annually. Almost three years after condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine and promising to leave, each brand found a different way to define "exit."

byDenys Svyrydenkov

Ukrainian military: Russian assaults slow on three fronts as strategic Toretsk stabilizes

7 minute read

The gist

Can Ukraine win? Former Defense Minister Zagorodnyuk explains

How does a country with fewer soldiers defeat an enemy that doesn't count its dead? Ukraine's former defense minister has a three-part answer.

byAlya Shandra

5 minute read

Analysis

Yes, Ukraine can join EU while occupied – if it does the work

Just ask Cyprus - the EU knows how to handle divided territories. What it won't handle is half-done reforms.

byIvan Posylnyi

US President Joe Biden and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the White House

10 minute read

Analysis

Ukraine plans for two Americas: Harris aid or Trump peace push

As Americans swing between Trump's peace push and Harris's support vows, Ukraine races for breakthroughs in both White House scenarios.

byMaria Tril

Ukrainian tanks Defense strategy victory plan

15 minute read

Yes, Ukraine can win the war – ex-minister decodes victory plan

Zelenskyy's plan and Ukraine's victory are completely realistic, says Andriy Zagorodnyuk. But there is a crucial caveat -- the current paradigm must be changed.

byAlya Shandra

north korea gets $200 mn rice space tech joining russia's war ukraine kim jong-un sits among korean troops

5 minute read

Analysis

Kim Jong-un sends his elite forces to Ukraine -“too valuable to be cannon fodder,” says former US diplomat

North Korea's Storm Force—the unit that once tried to assassinate South Korea's president—is now Kim's choice for Ukraine, reveals former US diplomat Matt Brazil. "He wants combat experience, not casualties".

byYevheniia Martyniuk

6 minute read

Analysis

Why UN chief gambled everything on Putin

António Guterres broke protocol, declined Ukraine's peace summit, and joined Putin at the BRICS summit in Kazan - all while Russian forces welcomed North Korean troops.

byYevheniia MartyniukandbyBohdan Ben

10 minute read

Analysis

Does Russia face military collapse by 2026? Inside Ukraine’s strategic assessment

As tank reserves deplete and production stalls, intelligence analysis points to a critical deadline for Russia's war effort. Yet Putin's ability to sustain low-intensity conflict challenges this timeline

byTatarigami

6 minute read

Analysis

Russia is the last European colonial empire, but the West looks away. Expert explains why

One empire remains overlooked as the world grapples with colonial legacies: Russia. Historian Botakoz Kassymbekova warns that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine isn't mere aggression but a continuation of centuries-old colonial ambitions.

byBohdan Ben

9 minute read

Analysis

Meet “Russian disease,” the centuries-old corruption plaguing Ukraine invasion

From expired rations to sunken flagships, it echoes historical defeats, transforming Putin's "three-day" campaign into a prolonged struggle against not just Ukraine, but Russia's own systemic rot.

byOleksiy Zagorodnyuk

Russia's “Azerbaijani Gas” Ploy Threatens to Unravel EU Sanctions on Moscow

5 minute read

Analysis

Russia’s “Azerbaijani gas” ploy threatens to unravel EU sanctions on Moscow

Energy expert Mykhailo Gonchar exposes Russia's audacious plan to rebrand its gas as "Azerbaijani" for transit through Ukraine, revealing how Kyiv faces mounting pressure from Moscow's European proxies to accept a deal that could shatter Western sanctions.

byYevheniia Martyniuk

7 minute read

Analysis

Russia’s Arctic fossil fuel boom fuels Ukraine war and climate crisis

Moscow's reckless exploitation of Arctic reserves threatens global climate targets while bankrolling its invasion of Ukraine. Yet China's growing involvement complicates Western efforts to curtail Russia's destructive expansion in the region.

byOleh Savytskyi

Outdated Western thinking empowers Russia’s war machine

5 minute read

Analysis

Outdated Western thinking empowers Russia’s war machine

Decades of viewing Ukraine as a mere “buffer zone” between Europe and Russia have led to precarious Western complacency amid a roaring global conflict, experts warn.

byBohdan Ben

Inside Russia’s €150 Million Propaganda Blitz to Undermine Moldova’s EU Path

5 minute read

Analysis

Inside Russia’s € 150 million propaganda blitz to undermine Moldova’s EU path

As tiny Moldova inches closer to the EU, Russia has unleashed a financial tsunami, injecting 1% of Moldova's GDP into a sophisticated propaganda and bribery campaign. This unprecedented offensive aims to derail the country’s European aspirations and maintain Kremlin influence.

byEuropean PravdaandbyYevheniia Martyniuk