Hans Petter Midttun

445 posts

Hans Petter Midttun, independent analyst on hybrid warfare, Non-Resident Fellow at the Centre for Defense Strategies, board member of the Ukrainian Institute for Security and Law of the Sea, former Defense Attaché of Norway to Ukraine, and officer (R) of the Norwegian Armed Forces.

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A Swedish Army drone operator launches a reconnaissance drone on Gotland Island during Exercise Aurora 26 in Sweden. Ukraine's Armed Forces sent drone operators to the exercise to pass on lessons learned to their NATO counterparts and to act as a challenging opposing force for Allied soldiers. More than 18,000 soldiers from 13 countries took part. (Photo: NATO)

11 minute read

Opinion

Europe and Ukraine already have the force to stop Russia. What’s missing is the alliance.

The war may reach Europe by 2027; NATO won't be ready until 2035. The fastest deterrent already exists: a declared alliance with Ukraine's combat-proven force.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, center, and U.S. President Donald Trump's envoys Jared Kushner, right, and Steve Witkoff, left, walk prior to their talks in Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, Sept. 6, 2026. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

7 minute read

Opinion

The West has tried everything except ending the war

Diplomacy, sanctions, 200 rounds of talks—Russia used all of it to buy time. Diesel prices in America are just the tsunami's latest wave.

8 minute read

Opinion

A US-Russia deal won’t end the war. It will start the next one

Two American processes are converging on the same point: the cost to Russia of attacking NATO. A peace on Moscow's terms lowers the political price; a US troop drawdown lowers the military one. Moscow is waiting to read both before it moves.

Svalbard in the crosshairs on a map. Collage: Euromaidan Press

12 minute read

Analysis

NATO vows to defend every inch. Svalbard is where Russia plans to prove it won’t.

The CIA chief’s visit to Moscow gave rise to warnings that Russia may be preparing to strike the Baltics. However, Russia has an easier target for the goal of paralyzing NATO.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, 7 July 2026. Photo: Ukrainian President's Office

12 minute read

Interview

NATO no longer deters Russia. A new coalition could

A formal declaration of Ukraine's alliance with European military powers would radically change Russia's calculus

Russian drone strike Geran on Kyiv's Unesko cathedral

8 minute read

Opinion

Russia is firing more missiles and drones than Ukraine can stop, and the gap is widening

Ukraine downed just one in twenty ballistic missiles in the last two big attacks. Patriots are rare, and the one workaround—striking the launchers—stays blocked.

russia keeps hitting ukraine's couriers—so ukraine went after russia's amazon oil depot warehouses hit near moscow · post warehouse burns ukrainian drone strike oblast morning 20 2026 пожежа у московській

12 minute read

Opinion

Russia and Ukraine justify their strikes the same way. Only one justification holds up

Ukraine is now hitting Russia's power grid, ports, shipping and warehouses — the same categories Russia hits in Ukraine. Both call the targets military. The facts decide who is right.

Ukraine rewards drone units for racking up the most kills

6 minute read

Opinion

Ukraine is turning Crimea into an island. It just fired the minister who armed the effort

The same pattern that cost Zaluzhnyi his job in 2024—success, popularity, a Syrskyi clash, a possible rival.

A drone operated by Ukraine’s ALASTOR special unit, part of the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade, strikes two Russian soldiers hiding inside the wreckage of military equipment in Pokrovsk. Donetsk Oblast, January 2025. Source: Sternenko.

16 minute read

Analysis

Russia now loses more soldiers than it recruits. But the war won’t end because of that.

For the first time, Russia’s losses outrun its recruits—four years of General Staff data explain why that still won’t end the war.

russia blacked out europe's largest nuclear plant 15 times since occupying 2022 · post zaporizhzhia power energoatom znpp russian-occupied (znpp) again lost external 40th anniversary chornobyl disaster said same day

6 minute read

Opinion

Russia won’t start a nuclear war. It might cause a nuclear disaster.

For the first time in history, a major war is being fought around 15 nuclear reactors. The West fears a Russian strike; the real danger is the disaster it has chosen not to see.

Ukrainian drones bombing Moscow in 2026 and the London Blitz in 1940

5 minute read

Opinion

Is Ukraine about to repeat Hitler’s mistake with the London Blitz?

The West left Ukraine one exit. It's the wrong one.

12 minute read

Opinion

NATO is dead. Meet CALM.

Discussing alternatives to the Alliance has long been taboo. That changed in 2026.

4 minute read

Opinion

Kyiv Security Forum agreed Russia’s threat is existential. It did not discuss how to defeat Moscow.

The reason was the elephant the Forum could not name: an America that no longer behaves like an ally.

NATO soldiers at the training. Source: Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE)

13 minute read

Analysis

NATO’s generals warn of war by 2029. Europe won’t be ready until 2035.

The gap between threat timeline and readiness timeline is not a planning error. It is a window.

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Hans Petter Midttun

Europe and Ukraine already have the force to stop Russia. What’s missing is the alliance.

The West has tried everything except ending the war

A US-Russia deal won’t end the war. It will start the next one

NATO vows to defend every inch. Svalbard is where Russia plans to prove it won’t.

NATO no longer deters Russia. A new coalition could

Russia is firing more missiles and drones than Ukraine can stop, and the gap is widening

Russia and Ukraine justify their strikes the same way. Only one justification holds up

Ukraine is turning Crimea into an island. It just fired the minister who armed the effort

Russia now loses more soldiers than it recruits. But the war won’t end because of that.

Russia won’t start a nuclear war. It might cause a nuclear disaster.

Is Ukraine about to repeat Hitler’s mistake with the London Blitz?

NATO is dead. Meet CALM.

Kyiv Security Forum agreed Russia’s threat is existential. It did not discuss how to defeat Moscow.

NATO’s generals warn of war by 2029. Europe won’t be ready until 2035.

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