The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 16 July that Ukrainian forces are intensifying their efforts to neutralize Russian air defense systems in occupied Ukraine and along Russia’s border regions.
According to the ISW, this strategic move aims to create favorable conditions for the deployment of F-16 fighter jets, which are expected to arrive in Ukraine between Summer and Fall 2024.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi announced on 16 July that Ukrainian forces successfully struck an S-300 position in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
“Ukrainian forces have destroyed 20 S-300 launchers and 15 radar stations total in an unspecified time period,” Syrskyi said.
He also shared geolocated footage showing Ukrainian forces using cluster munitions against Russian air defense systems east of occupied Manhush, Donetsk Oblast.
The ISW notes a claim from the Council of Deputies of Krasninskoye, Volgograd Oblast, regarding the death of a Russian S-300 battery commander. The council reported that the commander was killed in a Ukrainian ATACMS strike on 12 July. However, the ISW suggests that this incident more likely occurred near Mariupol, aligning with reports of a strike against a Russian S-300 system on that same day.
Syrskyi emphasized the strategic importance of these operations, stating, “Ukrainian forces were systematically destroying Russia’s air defense capabilities to set conditions for Ukraine’s successful use of strike aircraft.” He added that F-16s are arriving “soon.”
The report also cites Kostyantyn Nemichev, founder of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) “Kraken” Regiment, who claimed that Ukrainian forces had destroyed four Russian S-300 systems used to strike Kharkiv City within an unspecified period.
Despite these efforts, the ISW cautions that the initial F-16 deliveries to Ukraine will likely be limited in number. The report states, “Materiel and training constraints will likely prevent Ukrainian forces from leveraging fixed-wing airpower at scale in 2024.”
The ISW also notes that Ukrainian officials have previously indicated their intention to use F-16s as part of Ukraine’s broader air defense umbrella.
The ISW concludes by reiterating a previous assessment that Ukraine must significantly reduce Russia’s overall air defense capabilities to effectively integrate F-16s into its combat operations.
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