Russo-Ukrainian War. Day 529: Russia attacked Ukraine with Kinzhal missiles

Russia attacked Ukraine with Kinzhal missiles. Ukraine conducted 39 attacks on Crimea with drones and missiles in June-July 2023. Ukrainian marine drones are improving, recent attack on Novorossiysk shows. Daily overview — Summary report, August 6

According to information from the General Staff as of 06.00 06.08.2023, supplemented by its [18:00 assessment].

Military Updates

Drone developer: “Even if only one out of ten marine drones reaches the target, this is a very successful case”. Even if only one out of ten Ukrainian marine drones reaches the target, this is a very successful case, said one of the founders of the project of Ukrainian marine drones, a member of the UA Dynamics development team Maksym Subotin in an interview with Ukrainian Radio. The main task now is to scale up production. “This is a phenomenal case that can turn the surface Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation to the underwater status,” Subotin said, commenting about the Ukrainian strikes which hit the Russian oil tanker SIG and military ship Olenegorskiy Gorniak. Such successful strikes are “absolutely wonderful for Ukraine” regarding the control over the Black, Subotin said. Russian tanker which was damaged by Ukrainian drone performed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense — Black Sea Monitoring Group. Russian tanker SIG (IMO 9735335), which was attacked by a Ukrainian naval drone on the night of 5 August 2023, south of the Kerch Strait, has been violating sanctions numerous times while its owner likely has contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense on delivering fuel to the Russian army in Ukraine and Syria, Black Sea Monitoring group reveals. According to the director of this Ukrainian service monitoring shipping in the Black Sea, Andriy Klymenko, the Black Sea Monitoring Group first recorded the tanker as a violator of Crimean sanctions on 05 December 2017. Then it delivered 6,500 tons of diesel fuel to the Feodosia oil depot in Crimea from the Russian port of Novorossiysk. At that time, there was no Kerch bridge, and fuel was transported to the occupied Crimea by sea. Russia likely withdraws large part of aviation from Belarus after months of presence — Belarusian Hajun. On 5 August 2023, 9 Russian fighter jets and 11 helicopters left Belarus, heading back to Russia after months of their presence in Belarus. This was reported by Belarusian Hajun, a project which monitors the movement of military equipment. Around 13:30, 9 Su-34 and Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces took off from the Baranovichi airfield in Belarus. They proceeded through the Mogilev region to Russia, Belarusian Hajun writes, noting that most of the planes spent 202 days in Belarus since 15 January 2023. Russia attacked Ukraine using Kinzhal missiles. At around 16:30, Russia attacked Ukraine using its high-speed Kinzhal missiles and ordinary ballistic and cruise missiles. Air alert was announced all over Ukraine. According to Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s Air Force, Russia aimed at the Starokostiantyniv airfield in the west of Ukraine and the Motor Sich plant in the south. Ukraine’s Air Force notifications show Russia launched at least three Kinzhal missiles toward central Ukrainian regions. Most likely, kinzhals were directed towards Ukraine’s strategic Starokostiantyniv airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, where Ukraine’s aircraft was based. Ukrainian marine drones are improving, recent attack on Novorossiysk shows. August 4, 2023, marks a significant day for Ukraine: the Ukrainian defense forces successfully carried out an impactful attack on the Russian port and naval base in Novorossiysk, a location previously deemed a safe haven for Russia. The Ukrainian kamikaze marine drones demonstrated their capabilities once again, covering a distance of at least 700 km without interference from Russian sea and air assets, physical defenses, or electronic warfare systems, Defense Express notes. Ukrainian forces achieved a convincing victory in another naval battle, significantly damaging the Russian assault landing ship “Olenegorskiy Gornyak” and possibly sinking the anti-diversion boat “Suworowetz.” According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours):

• The annual celebrations of Russia’s Airborne Forces (VDV) Day on 2 August 2023 have been overshadowed by an apparently unsanctioned disclosure of the scope of the casualties the elite force has suffered in Ukraine.

• In a recorded address for VDV Day, the VDV’s Commander-in-Chief General Colonel Mikhail Teplinsky said that 8500 paratroopers had been wounded and later returned to duty or had refused to leave the front line at all. The video was quickly deleted from the Russian MoD’s official channels. He did not comment on how many troops had been killed or were too seriously wounded to return to duty.

• However, extrapolating Teplinksy’s figures endorses the assessment that at least 50 per cent of the 30,000 paratroopers who deployed to Ukraine in 2022 have been killed or wounded.

Losses of the Russian army

Humanitarian

Ukrainian fencer Kharlan says Russians threatened her with death after she refused to shake hand of her Russian competitor. Ukrainian fencer Olha Kharlan says she received calls and messages from Russians who threatened her, even wished her to die, after she refused to shake hand of her Russian competitor Anna Smirnova at the World Championship. She spoke about this in her interview with Football Hub. “The threats reached me,” she said. “That country is half the size of the planet but there are very few normal people. I can’t say that I expected these [threats]. There were some messages where photos of dead fighters were sent to me. And then I started to get really worried because I don’t want to see it. There were messages like “die” or something. They tried to call.Many times, from different numbers from different countries.“ New female uniform introduced in Ukrainian Forces; female body armors next. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has approved and officially supplied the new field uniform for women in the Armed Forces. According to Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, procurement and supply procedures for the uniform will begin shortly. The updated uniform design took into account feedback and suggestions from female military personnel who participated in military trials in 2022. Mariupol’s stolen tiger dies in Russian circus. In May of this year, a three-month-old tiger cub was taken from Mariupol Zoo and transported to a circus in Moscow, Mariupol City Council reports. The young tiger, known as “Mariupolske tyhrenia,” was placed under the care of Russian animal trainer Edgard Zapashny, known for his support of the war against Ukraine. Recent information has come to light that the animal has passed away. Zapashny himself confirmed the tiger’s death, stating that it had congenital kidney problems.

Environmental

Wildfires devastate most valuable steppe area on Dzharylhach island, occupied by Russia, warns UNCG. Wildfires continue to ravage the most valuable steppe area within the Dzharylhach National Nature Park for the past five days, according to a recent release by Ukrainian Nature Conservation Group–UNCG. Since the full-scale invasion began, Dzharylhach island has fallen under occupation, and the special administration of the national park is unable to ensure its preservation. The burning area is an ecologically sensitive zone with restricted human access, harboring a significant portion of the island’s steppe ecosystems and rare steppe animals’ populations.

Legal

Support

Lithuania will provide NASAMS launchers and other military aid to Ukraine. Lithuania will provide NASAMS air defense launch systems, anti-drone equipment, logistic equipment, and various other support to Ukraine. It will be handed over soon, according to the statement of the Lithuanian Defense Ministry. “Lithuania continues to provide uninterrupted military support to Ukraine,” the statement reads. During the first seven months of 2023, the military support transferred by Lithuania includes:

• Mi-8 helicopters.
• L-70 anti-aircraft guns with ammunition.
• M113 armored personnel carriers.
• Millions of cartridges of ammunition.
• Ammunition for grenade launchers.

New Developments

Ukraine conducted 39 attacks on Crimea with drones and missiles in June-July 2023. In the first two months of the summer of 2023, Ukraine conducted 39 attacks on Crimea, using drones and missiles, the Black Sea Monitoring Group has analyzed. The goal of the attacks was military infrastructure and transport facilities. At least 10 of the attacks had a direct impact on road and/or rail transport. Along with damaged logistical support for the frontline, the attacks also significantly decreased the number of tourists in Crimea. Even though the main resort and tourist region of Crimea — the South coast near Yalta and Alushta — was not on the map of air attacks, it does not mean that Russian tourists feel safe there. Ukraine and Saudi Arabia invite 40 Global South nations to talks about war. Ukraine is embarking on a significant and renewed diplomatic effort, spearheaded by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to weaken Russia’s position in the ongoing war. The initiative began this weekend at a gathering in Saudi Arabia, where diplomats from approximately 40 countries, including China, India, Brazil, South Africa, and several oil-rich Gulf nations, were invited to talks in the Red Sea port of Jeddah, NYT writes. Of notable interest are nations that have maintained a neutral stance throughout the war, refraining from taking sides. For them, the war has been framed as a contest between global powers, and they have cautiously avoided direct involvement. Despite the event’s fast-approaching date, it remains unclear how many nations will attend.

Assessment

1. On the War

The Institute of Study of War has made the following assessment as of 5 August: Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil tanker on August 4 with a naval drone in the second attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea in two consecutive days. The Moscow Times identified the tanker as the chemical tanker SIG, which is currently under US sanctions for supplying jet fuel to Russian forces in Syria.[1] Sources within the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) confirmed to the Ukrainian outlet Suspilne that the SBU and the Ukrainian Navy struck the ship near the Kerch Strait Bridge using a naval drone.[2] The Russian Federal Agency for Sea and Inland Water Transport (Rosmorrechflot) reported that the strike on the SIG occurred 27 kilometers south of the Kerch Strait Bridge, and Russian milbloggers claimed that the attack caused Russian authorities to suspend traffic on the bridge.[3] Russian news aggregator Baza reported that the naval drone punched a two-by-one meter hole in the SIG’s engine room, and state Russian outlets claimed that the incident did not result in an oil spill.[4] A Russian milblogger claimed that the Ukrainian naval drone intentionally targeted the SIG’s engine room because targeting the stern creates the least likelihood of an oil spill and is where the most expensive and difficult-to-repair equipment is located.[5] The nature and location on the ship of the attack suggest that Ukrainian forces intended to disable the ship without generating significant ecological consequences. Ukrainian forces have long targeted the Kerch Strait Bridge in order to degrade Russian military logistics in southern Ukraine, and the attack on the SIG is likely part of a wider effort to disable ships involved in supplying Russian military forces and the location of the attack near the bridge suggests that it was part of a larger effort to disrupt Russian logistics along a key Russian ground line of communication (GLOC).[6] Ukrainian officials issued a notice to mariners that Ukraine may strike vessels near Russia’s Black Sea ports – a measured response to continued Russian strikes against Odesa – Ukraine's main port – since July 17.[7] The Ukrainian State Hydrographic Service at the State Service of Maritime and River Transport posted a notice to mariners on August 4 announcing a “military threat” in the vicinity of the internal and external roadsteads at the ports of Taman, Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, and Sochi, until further notice.[8] The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense also cryptically tweeted ”Two can play that game,” without further context on August 5 - likely a reference to the Russian military’s continued strikes against Odesa’s port infrastructure since July 17.[9] This Ukrainian warning may deter merchant activity and international commercial shipping to and from Russia in the Black Sea. Ukrainian naval strikes are likely part of a deliberate interdiction campaign aimed at setting favorable conditions for larger counteroffensive operations. A Ukrainian naval drone struck the Russian Olenegorsky Gornyak Ropucha-class landing ship on the night of August 3 to 4.[10]  Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Representative Andriy Yusov stated on August 5 that the damage to the Olenegorsky Gornyak is very significant and suggested that the ship will not be operational for some time.[11] The UK Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported that images of the ship show it listing at 30 to 40 degrees, which suggests either that several watertight compartments were breached by the drone strike or that the crew’s efforts to control the damage were ineffective.[12] UK MoD reported that the Olenegorsky Gornyak is typically assigned to Russia’s Northern Fleet but has lately been ferrying military and civilian traffic between Russia and occupied Crimea following traffic disruptions to the Kerch Strait Bridge caused by previous Ukrainian strikes.[13] Previous Ukrainian interdiction efforts have mainly focused on Russian military targets on land, but it seems that Ukrainian forces are now expanding their efforts to include naval targets as part of these efforts. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly stated their commitment to a deliberate interdiction campaign against Russian military targets in order to degrade Russian logistics and defensive capabilities to set favorable conditions for future Ukrainian counteroffensive activity.[14] Ukrainian forces are thus continuing to set conditions for future decisive operations via an interdiction campaign as they did before and during counteroffensive operations in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts in 2022, now striking much deeper into Russian rear areas and incorporating maritime targets. Ukrainian forces continue to draw Russian forces to the Bakhmut area and fix them there despite a slower tempo of Ukrainian operations there. Ukrainian offensive operations on Bakhmut’s southern and northern flanks have slowed in recent days, and Russian and Ukrainian sources did not report any Ukrainian ground attacks in the area on August 5.[15] The rate of Ukrainian advances in the Bakhmut area has also slowed in recent weeks. Ukrainian operations around Bakhmut have drawn additional Russian units and formations to the Bakhmut area and have kept Russian forces in the area, which was likely one of their primary objectives. Russian forces have deployed elite formations and units to support defensive operations around Bakhmut, including elements of the 98th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division, the 11th VDV Brigade, the 106th VDV Division, and the 364th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff Main Directorate).[16] ISW has also observed speculation that elements of the 31st VDV Brigade are now defending Bakhmut’s southern flank and inconclusive footage suggesting that elements of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Guards Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) recently arrived in the Bakhmut direction.[17] The arrival of these units and formations in the Bakhmut area represents the commitment of a sizable amount of combat power that Russian forces could otherwise have used to support offensive operations in Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts or to reinforce Russian defensive operations in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian counteroffensive operations also appear to be successfully fixing Russian forces in this area, as ISW has yet to observe elements of these forces deploying to other parts of Ukraine. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar stated on August 4 that Russian forces are continuing to commit a large number of forces in the Bakhmut direction in hopes of recapturing recently lost dominant heights north of Bakhmut City.[18] Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks in southern Ukraine on August 5, part of a continuing pattern of limited Ukrainian ground attacks accompanying Ukrainian efforts to interdict Russian logistics and headquarters in rear areas. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in the Berdiansk (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast area) and Melitopol (western Zaporizhzhia) directions. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks in both areas and are advancing near Orikhiv.[19] Russian sources have routinely characterized Ukrainian attacks in southern Ukraine as up to a company in size with minimal armored vehicle or tank support.[20] These small Ukrainian ground attacks indicate that Ukrainian forces are continuing to conserve uncommitted reserves for larger mechanized attacks. Limited Ukrainian ground attacks can set conditions for larger mechanized attacks when the Ukrainian deep interdiction campaign has generated effects on the battlefield and can also support Ukrainian efforts to achieve an asymmetrical attrition gradient. Larger Ukrainian mechanized offensive operations have been sporadic since the start of the counteroffensive in early June, and ISW did not observe visual evidence or other observable signatures indicating a large assault near Orikhiv that Russian sources claimed occurred on July 26.[21] Russian sources may have exaggerated the Ukrainian attack in order to portray the Ukrainian counteroffensive operations as a failure. The New York Times reported that two anonymous Pentagon officials said on July 26 the ”main thrust” of the counteroffensive had begun, although it was not clear if those officials were referring to the July 26 attack, and other unnamed US officials subsequently walked those comments back.[22] Ukrainian forces are clearly not committing to large, massed mechanized counteroffensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia direction as their interdiction campaign proceeds, although they continue to conduct a series of variously-sized but relatively small attacks across the front line that are having the effects of fixing Russian forces in place, tiring them, and attriting them, as ISW has previously observed.[23] Senior officials from reportedly 40 countries, including the US, China, and India, began talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on August 5 aimed at drafting a set of key principles to guide the future settlement of the war in Ukraine. US National Security Spokesperson John Kirby stated on August 3 that the White House does not expect any “tangible deliverables” from the talks in Saudi Arabia and that the talks are a continuation of the process to promote a peace formula proposed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.[24] Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil tanker on August 4 with a naval drone in the second attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea in two consecutive days.
• Ukrainian officials issued a notice to mariners that Ukraine may strike vessels near Russia’s Black Sea ports – a measured response to continued Russian strikes against Odesa – Ukraine's main port – since July 17.
• Ukrainian naval strikes are likely part of a deliberate interdiction campaign aimed at setting favorable conditions for larger counteroffensive operations.
• Ukrainian forces continue to draw Russian forces to the Bakhmut area and fix them there despite a slower tempo of Ukrainian operations there.
• Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks in southern Ukraine on August 5, part of a continuing pattern of limited Ukrainian ground attacks accompanying Ukrainian efforts to interdict Russian logistics and headquarters in rear areas.
• Senior officials from reportedly 40 countries, including the US, China, and India, began talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on August 5 aimed at drafting a set of key principles to guide the future settlement of the war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations northeast of Kupiansk, along the Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut area, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and advanced along the Svatove-Kreminna line and the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front.
• Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and advanced along the Svatove-Kremmina line.
• Pardoned Wagner Group convict fighters continue to increase recidivism rates in Russia.
• Russian officials continue to transport Ukrainian children from occupied regions to Russia under the guise of summer vacations.