Russo-Ukrainian War. Day 316: Ukrainian soldiers repel assault in the Bakhmut area

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1610722491361550336

AEW&C aircraft that helps in targeting arrived in Belarus from Russia, Ukrainska Pravda reported on 3 January, citing Belaruski Hajun [an independent Belarusian military monitoring media outlet]. “An Il-76 A-50U aircraft, designed to track air and surface targets, arrived at the Machulishchy airfield in Belarus from Russia.”

All islands in Kherson Oblast are in the grey area, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Interfax-Ukraine news agency, citing Yevhen Yerin, Head of the joint press centre for Ukraine’s defence forces on the Tavriya front. “Regarding the island [Velykyi Potomkin – ed.], I will say this: now all the islands are located in the so-called grey zone, which is not clearly controlled by our troops or the occupiers.

Accordingly, yes, our servicemen are trying to reach these islands, to carry out certain measures as part of the operation. At the same time, it is impossible to talk about [fire] control over the islands. Yerin added that the islands are not a bridgehead that should be held for the long term. He emphasised that control over the islands is possible only after gaining full control over the opposite bank [left bank of the Dnipro River].”

Ukrainian soldiers repel assault, capture enemy’s positions in the Bakhmut area, Ukrinform reports, citing the State Border Guard Service. “Soldiers of the Ukrainian State Border Guard Service, together with the military of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, repelled an enemy assault in the Bakhmut area and captured Russian forces’ positions in a counterattack. During the battle, the Ukrainian defenders killed nine Russian soldiers and wounded about 20 invaders.

According to the report, as of this time, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have advanced 300 meters and are securing new positions.”

Media report explosions near Belbek airfield in Sevastopol, Ukrinform reports. “On the morning of January 4, explosions rang out near the Belbek airfield in temporarily occupied Sevastopol, Crimea. Social media users write about explosions near the Belbek airfield in Sevastopol, RFE/RL’s Russian service posted on Telegram.

Petro Andriushchenko, an adviser to the Mariupol mayor, wrote on Telegram that the air defence system was activated in Sevastopol at least twice this morning. As reported, blasts rocked Dzhankoi, Crimea, on January 3.”

Partisans became more active in the Russian Federation, trains stopped near Krasnoyarsk, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine. “The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine records the activation of the resistance movement in the Russian Federation. On the night of 4 January in Russia, partisans once again stopped the movement of civilian trains and military trains on a section of the Trans-Siberian Railway near Krasnoyarsk. Russian media does not report anything about the incident on the railway near Krasnoyarsk.

The Defence Intelligence added that in 2023, this is at least the sixth case of destruction of alarm units, centralization and blocking on the railway in different regions of Russia, which leads to violations in the traffic schedules of military trains. According to the secret serviceʼs estimates, about 40 such cases of destruction of railway transformers and locomotives were recorded in 2022.”

Russia deploys 5 warships to Black and Azov seas – Ukraine’s Navy, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Ukrainian Navy. “The Military Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine say that Russia has three warships on combat duty in the Black Sea, and two ships in the Sea of Azov. There are 9 Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea, including 5 carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles, and a total salvo of 76 missiles.”

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1610864166084005889

1. On the war. 

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of  January 4, 2023:

Russia prepares new offensive actions, may attack from north or east, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Andrii Cherniak, a representative from Defence Intelligence of Ukraine. “According to Ukrainian military intelligence estimates, the Russians will try to continue conducting offensive operations next year. They have not managed to achieve their goal on any of the fronts. They understand that they are losing, but they do not plan to end the war. We are considering the possibility that they can attack from the north or east at the same time.”

He stressed that defenders are ready for any invader action. Cherniak also expressed a belief that the Russians will try to hold the land corridor to Crimea and seize the whole of Donetsk Oblast. At the same time, he believes that the invaders will not be able to cross the Dnipro River to recapture the city of Kherson.

Ukrainian military intelligence forecasts that over the next 4–5 months, the Russian army may lose up to 70,000 more servicemen. But, according to Cherniak, the Russian leadership is ready for such losses.”

Ukraine says Russia plans new mobilisation to ‘turn tide of war’, Reuters reports. “Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia was planning to call up more troops for a major new offensive, even as Moscow was facing some of its biggest internal criticism of the war over a strike that killed scores of fresh conscripts. Kyiv has been saying for weeks that Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to order another mass conscription drive and shut his borders to prevent men from escaping the draft.

We have no doubt that the current masters of Russia will throw everything they have left and everyone they can round up to try to turn the tide of the war and at least delay their defeat, Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address on Tuesday. We have to disrupt this Russian scenario. We are preparing for this. The terrorists must lose. Any attempt at their new offensive must fail. […]

Putin said last month there was no need for further mobilisation. But in a sign the Kremlin may now be considering one, a little known group claiming to represent widows of Russian soldiers released a call on Tuesday for Putin to order a large-scale mobilisation of millions of men. The Kremlin has not commented on that appeal.”

Ukrainian Armed Forces spokesperson says new wave of mobilization will not help Russians, Ukrinform reports. “The presence of a large number of military personnel is the only trump card remaining for the Russians, according to Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for the Eastern Group of Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He said on Ukraine’s television that a new wave of mobilization in Russia, which is due to begin on January 5, will not help Russia in the war because a trained and motivated Ukrainian army equipped with advanced weapons will resist this, Ukrinform reports.

Of course, all of our analytical, intelligence and information structures are working powerfully. A systematic analysis is constantly being conducted at all levels, so this [another wave of mobilization in Russia] has not been a secret for a long time, Cherevatyi said. He recalled that the large dynamics of enemy losses at the front required the renewal of their personnel, therefore a new wave of mobilization was expected.

At the same time, he added that the Defense Forces of Ukraine are successfully using the advanced models of Western weapons in the battle against a large enemy. Our motivation and training, multiplied by the latest Western equipment, can be a turning point in the war, and this can nullify any mobilization efforts of Russian forces, Cherevatyi said.”

Ukraine planning major offensive for spring, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing ABC News. “Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, said in an interview to ABC News that Ukraine is planning a major offensive for spring, and the fiercest fighting is expected in March. This is [when we will see more – ed.] liberation of territories and dealing the final defeats to the Russian Federation. According to him, this will happen throughout Ukraine, from Crimea to Donbas.

Our goal, and we will achieve it, is returning to the borders of 1991, like Ukraine is recognized by all subjects of international law, he emphasised. Budanov did not rule out further strikes on the territory of Russia but did not specify who would be behind them.

He added that the attacks would take place deeper and deeper inside Russia’s territory, but also said he’d be able to comment on who carried out these strikes only after the end of the war.”

Russia waiting for new drones and preparing missiles for next attack, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Vadym Skibitskyi, representative of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, in an interview to RBK-Ukraine news agency. “They [the Russians – ed.] will now try to use new approaches. If they do not have enough missiles for a large-scale attack, they will combine high-precision missiles, Kh-22 and S-300 [missiles], especially in front-line areas, and kamikaze drones. You see how the Russians actively used them for two days in a row. […] That is, they will combine means to maintain the pace of strikes on our civilian infrastructure facilities. […]

He noted that when [the Defence Intelligence – ed.] says that the stocks of Russian missiles is enough for another two or three strikes, they mean high-precision missiles: Kh-101, Kh-555 and Kalibrs, and large-scale attacks, with total fired missiles about 80 in each. According to our estimates, they [the Russians – ed.] can now produce approximately 30 units of Kh-101 per month. If we talk about Kalibrs, then we see 15-20 units per month, said Skibitskyi. According to him, the Russians have approximately 60 sea-based Kalibr cruise missiles and are producing them at a maximum of 20 per month. Defence Intelligence states that the Russians have approximately 160 units of Kh-22 missiles, but these are old missiles that are difficult to use now.

In general, according to regulatory documents, the strategic limit should be 30% of the entire stockpile of missiles. But they have already passed this limit for all types of missiles, for [Iskanders, Kalibrs, Kh-101, and Kh-555]. That is, they already have less than 30% of reserves. […]

Skibitskyi noted that there are “not so many” Kinzhal missiles in the Russian Federation. If they are also launched, then there will simply be nothing to scare the world with. They are now using Kinzhals for demonstration and intimidation, [to show – ed.] that they have such weapons no one will be able to shoot down. Accordingly, with this, they maintain the tension regarding the possibility of using these weapons not only against us, but also against other European countries, he said.

As for drones, Russia also has problems with them, Skibitskyi said. To date, they have deployed approximately 660 Shahed drones. The contract calls for 1,750 items. It takes time to deliver and prepare them. They have deployed a large number in recent days, and these stocks need to be replenished… Our data indicates that they will now have another shipment. How long it will be, we will be clarifying. Before that, they used to bring in batches of 250–300 items. Let’s see how it will be this time.”

 

1. Consequences and what to do? 

Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine triggers ‘soul-searching’ at western universities as scholars rethink Russian studies, RFE/RL reports. “When more than 2,000 Slavic, East European, and Eurasian studies specialists from around the world gather in Philadelphia later this year for their largest annual conference, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will dominate the discussion — or loom large over the proceedings, at the very least.

In Ukraine, Moscow’s unprovoked war has killed tens of thousands of people and laid cities and towns to waste. At universities across the West, it has thrust Russia’s history of imperialism and colonialism to the forefront of Slavic and Eurasian academic discussion — from history and political science to art and literature.

The war is forcing scholars, departments, and university officials to question how they teach the history of Russia, the former Soviet Union, and the region, what textbooks and sources they use, whom they hire, which archives they mine for information, and even what departments should be named.

The Association for Slavic, East European, and Eurasian Studies (ASEEES) has made “decolonization” — which it describes as “a profoundly political act of re-evaluating long-established and often internalized hierarchies, of relinquishing and taking back power” — the theme of its 2023 conference. “Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has led to widespread calls for the reassessment and transformation of Russo-centric relationships of power and hierarchy both in the region and in how we study it,” the association says in a notice on the convention. […]

Some faculty have questioned why an institution covering a region that spans two continents and reaches from the Atlantic to the Pacific should have only one country — Russia — in its name. […]  Many scholars say the Russian state receives too much focus in academia at the expense of the colonized nations, regions, and groups, including Ukraine, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, as well as ethnic minority communities in Russia itself. The view from St. Petersburg and Moscow – the capitals of Russia since the tsarist era and of the Soviet Union – dominates.

Proponents of decolonization or “decentering” are calling for a greater inclusion of voices from those nations and regions in the curriculum of Russian, Soviet, and Eurasian history, literature, culture, political science, and economics. Oxana Shevel, a professor of political science at Tufts University in Massachusetts and president of the American Association for Ukrainian Studies, says many scholars of the region feel that academia has “overlooked to a large extent” the trauma caused by Russian imperialism and colonialism.

The focus, instead, tends to be on the Moscow-centric view that the Russian and Soviet states brought “modernization, education, and industrialization” to those communities. “Scholars who study non-Russian regions of the former Soviet space are basically speaking with one voice for the need to decolonize Soviet and post-Soviet studies,” Shevel told RFE/RL. […]

The potential impact of the shift that has begun goes beyond the need to rewrite lectures and incorporate new material. It could also affect current and future research projects and reach back in time, as well, leading to greater scrutiny of past works. […]

Erica Marat, a professor of political science at the National Defense University in Washington and a Central Asia expert, says the push by scholars of Ukraine to challenge the status quo in academia has inspired those studying other regions ruled by Moscow. “The war in Ukraine and just how Ukrainian scholars are speaking out is really opening up a lot of space for the rest of us,” she told RFE/RL.

Vitaly Chernetsky, a Ukrainian-born professor of Slavic and Eurasian languages and literatures at the University of Kansas, says that the works of experts from non-Russian regions and communities are not taken seriously enough by peers, a view shared by Marat and others. Ukraine has been “misjudged and misunderstood” in the West in part because scholars of Russia dominate the discussion, Chernetsky said.

As a case in point, he says one reason many in the field expected Kyiv to fall quickly following the Russian invasion in February was that they bought into the narrative that Ukraine was a “divided” nation with a weak sense of national identity. Universities rarely offer courses in the history or culture of Ukraine, Europe’s largest country by size and its seventh-largest by population. A major reason has been a lack of student demand — which scholars say is a result of the entrenched focus on Russia, though the war has led to a spike in interest. […]

Scholars say studies of the Eurasian regions of Russia and Soviet studies in the United States has historically been taught from a Moscow-centric perspective because of the outsized influence of Russian-born scholars who helped found the field. Clarence Manning, chairman of the Department of Slavic Studies at Columbia University and one of the few Ukraine experts of his time, made this argument in a 1957 scholarly article.

A dominant school of thought within US academia held that “every person within the old Russian empire is a Russian,” he wrote. These scholars, described as “Russia Firsters,” repeated “old traditional formulas set out by Russian scholarship before the [1917] Revolution” and treated Russia and later the Soviet Union “as a single, unified country.” […]

Susan Smith-Peter, a professor of Russian history at the College of Staten Island in New York, says that the teachings of Vasily Klyuchevsky, an imperial-era scholar and one of the founders of modern Russian historiography, were essentially transplanted to the United States.

Klyuchevsky, who died in 1911, denied the existence of Ukraine as a people and a culture distinct from Russia, she says. His students in Moscow included Michael Karpovich, who would go on to teach generations of Russia scholars over three decades at Harvard University, from 1927 to 1957. Karpovich “rejected the historiographical legitimacy of a separate Ukrainian history,” Smith-Peter wrote in a blog post this month, adding that as a result, the works of Ukrainian scholars “were often not integrated into the work of Russian historians.”

One key narrative passed on from imperial-era historians by emigres, and still widely taught in the United States today, is that Russia is the direct and sole successor to Kievan Rus — also known as Kyivan Rus, from the city’s Ukrainian name — a state that reached the peak of its power a century before Moscow was founded.

Putin, who has falsely claimed that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people” and has suggested in numerous historically inaccurate written and spoken remarks that Ukraine has no right to exist as a fully sovereign state, has used that vastly simplified notion of continuity in attempts to justify his war. His skewed version of history appears to be at the center of what numerous analysts have said is Putin’s obsession with dominating Ukraine. […]

The challenge academics now face is understanding how Russian imperialism and colonialism impact the way they think about or approach their subjects. “I think that is the most interesting shift, and probably the most controversial,” he said. As for the textbook A History Of Russia, Steinberg said he has made “some significant changes in the direction of questioning simple assumptions about Kyiv-Moscow continuities and will develop these further in the 10th edition.”

While some institutions and professors have been making changes to their classes and curricula, Chernetsky said, the field still needs “deep, structural” change. The important thing here is not to lose momentum, because big academic institutions tend to be inert, he said.”

Hans Petter Midttun: As the title implies –  Why Ukraine will win in 2023 – my last article of 2022 ended on a positive note. While it’s impossible to predict how and when Russia’s war against Ukraine will end, many wheels have been set in motion to ensure that its defeat is inevitable. 2023 will be a year of hope and victory.

In my introduction, I argued that the US, NATO and the EU have failed to define the “red lines” Russia cannot cross. They have so far failed to respond to the Russian continuous escalation of the war, including the energy war against Europe, its increased efforts to eradicate Ukrainian nationhood, its war on global food security or its destruction of the Ukrainian energy sector. They have also failed to publicly support the Ukrainian declared end-state (or define one themselves) or clarify what “support as long as it takes” means in practical terms.

Throughout 2022, I have stressed that the West is not supplying Ukraine with the means it needs to defeat and evict Russian forces from Ukraine. Ukraine is being attacked from three dimensions while being enabled to fight in only one. Its international partners have until now refrained from delivering long-range fire capable of destroying critical military capabilities and enablers on Russian territory. Ukraine needs more HIMARS, NASAMS, Patriot and artillery, as well as ATACMS, F-16, American M-60 and M-1 Abrams or the German Leopard-1 and Leopard-2, and M2 Bradleys and Marders.

At the start of 2023, we already see small but important signs of a policy change.

One of the most important ones is the statements of both President Macron and Prime Minister Rutte that they will continue to support Ukraine until victory. The statements define a clear end-state and, therefore, imply a strategy to achieve it. Doing everything they can to help Ukraine not only defend itself but also win the war, means providing it with the tools it needs to evict the Russian forces.

While the two statements only represent two Heads of State, they are still in breach with what has been a remarkable unison strategic messaging from the West throughout 2022. For exactly that reason, it’s unlikely that they would commit without having most of NATO and the EU member states “on board”.

This lends credit to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s statement that

“I am still convinced that in 2023 we will receive something that, for various reasons, we could not obtain in 2022. I can confirm it. Wait for the news.”

This might already be reflected in both ongoing deliberations as well as signals of new defence aid. The US is considering delivering M2 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV) to Ukraine. While the main role of the M2 is to provide protected transport for soldiers in close contact with the enemy and offers a significantly higher level of protection than the M113 armoured personnel carrier, it is also equipped with a powerful 25 mm gun and two TOW anti-tank guided missiles.

Equally important, a US decision to supply Bradley will force Germany to deliver Marders. Introducing the two IFVs on the battlefield will increase the Ukraine Armed Force’s ability to manoeuvre, especially as the Russian inventory of “modern” main battle tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and artillery is being depleted and is experiencing a reduction in the availability of artillery ammunition.

A decision to supply modern western IFVs will be yet a case of previous “nays” inevitably being turned into “ayes”.

This means that Abrams and Leopard might be next on the line. The previously expressed fear of “escalation of the war into a broader confrontation” (which I have repeatedly stressed, is already taking place), is hopefully being replaced by the recognition that:

1. repeated Ukrainian breaches of Russian declared red-lines have not triggered the WW3 many were predicting;
2. the increasingly more advanced defence support to Ukraine – and the consequential destruction of Russia’s Armed Forces – has not escalated the full-scale war in Ukraine into a military confrontation in Europe;
3. the global “tsunami of ripple effects” from the war is not sustainable; and that
4. Russia is no longer a military threat to the world.

I have previously argued that sanctions will not work without the parallel use of military power.

“Sanctions have undoubtedly impacted Russia’s ability to wage war. They have, however, had no impact whatsoever on Russia’s willingness to use military power to achieve its strategic aim and objectives. Sanctions will only work when employed in combination with military power.”

When countering an opponent using a strategy based on the parallel and synchronized use of all means available to the state, the West must be willing to defend itself on equal terms. NATO and the EU must coordinate and synchronize their employment of both military and non-military means to counter an increasingly more aggressive Russian foreign policy.

Using non-military means only is like trying to pump empty a flooded ship compartment without closing the hole in the hull. While it might stop the ship from sinking it also turns damage control into an enduring commitment.

You could close this page. Or you could join our community and help us produce more materials like this.  We keep our reporting open and accessible to everyone because we believe in the power of free information. This is why our small, cost-effective team depends on the support of readers like you to bring deliver timely news, quality analysis, and on-the-ground reports about Russia's war against Ukraine and Ukraine's struggle to build a democratic society. A little bit goes a long way: for as little as the cost of one cup of coffee a month, you can help build bridges between Ukraine and the rest of the world, plus become a co-creator and vote for topics we should cover next. Become a patron or see other ways to support. Become a Patron!