Bulgaria holds its eighth parliamentary election in five years today, with the frontrunner being a politician whose record on Ukraine raises significant concerns, RBC-Ukraine analyzed. Rumen Radev — former president and founder of the new Progressive Bulgaria coalition — leads polls at 29–31%, but his ability to translate that into governing power remains highly uncertain.
Radev and the race
Radev resigned as Bulgaria's president in January — the first such resignation in the country's post-communist history — and founded Progressive Bulgaria, a left-leaning coalition of three parties, quickly building it into the election's frontrunner.
His main rival is the right-wing GERB-SDS bloc led by former prime minister Boyko Borisov at around 20%. Other significant contenders include the pro-European Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) at 10%, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms linked to oligarch Delyan Peevski sanctioned by the US and UK, the openly pro-Russian Revival party, and the Bulgarian Socialist Party.
Bulgaria is a parliamentary republic — its government, not its president, holds the most power. During the political crisis of recent years, Radev remained formally outside the fray while serving as head of state, RBC-Ukraine noted.
Radev's record on Ukraine
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As president, Radev opposed military assistance to Ukraine, arguing that Bulgarian weapons deliveries would not change the battlefield situation. He also criticized the 10-year security agreement with Ukraine that Bulgaria's caretaker government signed in March 2026 — a deal Radev had blocked throughout his presidency. He also opposes Bulgaria's integration into the eurozone and has declared his intention to restore relations with Moscow.
Radev withheld his signature from the October 2022 Bucharest Nine declaration over language on Ukraine’s future NATO membership, while backing its other provisions, and in December threatened to block a new EU sanctions package over nuclear fuel restrictions and called for ceasefire talks, but ultimately supported the final text, according to RBC-Ukraine.
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Whether Radev can govern
Even 30% of the vote — what polls currently project — does not give Radev enough mandates to form a government alone. Both GERB-SDS and PP-DB have said they will not form a coalition with Progressive Bulgaria. If they eventually did, Radev would likely avoid the Ukraine issue to prevent tensions with coalition partners, RBC-Ukraine assessed.
Radev could in theory seek a coalition with Revival and the socialists, but RBC-Ukraine sees that as unlikely because of Revival’s toxicity, while the pro-European parties remain too divided to unite, making another failed mandate and a new caretaker government before fresh snap elections the most likely outcome.
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