As European leaders convened in Kyiv to advance a proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine set to begin Monday, former US envoy Kurt Volker warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains unwilling to end the war—at least for now.
The ceasefire initiative, coordinated during a phone call with US President Donald Trump, received backing from all participants. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine’s readiness to implement the truce, contingent on effective monitoring mechanisms. The Kremlin has yet to issue a formal response.
“Putin isn’t ready. He doesn’t want a ceasefire,” Volker said in an interview with Radio Liberty during the summit in Kyiv. “He wants to keep fighting, attacking, and bombing Ukrainian cities. He’s waiting to see if his forces can gain ground in a summer offensive.”
Despite Putin’s current posture, Volker believes shifting conditions could force his hand.
“Eventually, financial and military pressure will force Putin to say, ‘Okay, now’s the time for a ceasefire.’ That moment could come in autumn or later—I think we might reach it by the end of the year,” he said.
New channels for US military support
Volker expressed skepticism that the Trump administration would approve new direct military aid packages for Ukraine, citing political and fiscal constraints.
“I’m almost certain we won’t see new appropriations that involve spending US taxpayer money on aid to Ukraine,” he said.
However, he outlined several alternative paths for continued support:
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Lend-lease agreements, modeled after those used during World War II
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Loans to finance arms purchases
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Leveraging a newly signed US-Ukraine mineral extraction agreement to facilitate defense cooperation.
“US military support is likely to continue,” Volker concluded, “just through different mechanisms.”
International oversight key to peace
Volker warned against direct bilateral negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, arguing they would enable Russian misinformation and leave Ukraine vulnerable to manipulation.
“If Ukraine and Russia are alone in a room, Russia will walk out and blame Ukraine for everything. It would only sow confusion,” he said.
He also rejected Russian demands that Ukraine renounce NATO ambitions and reduce its military strength.
“Putin has an endless list of demands,” Volker noted. “Trump’s only demand is to end the war. Just stop the war. And Putin refuses to do even that.”
On speculation that the US might recognize Russian-occupied territories, including Crimea, Volker was unequivocal.
“It’s a nonsensical proposal,” he said. “If Ukraine doesn’t recognize Crimea as Russian—and neither does the rest of the world—why should the United States? What would that even accomplish?”
As Kyiv hosts a renewed international effort to de-escalate the war, Volker’s assessment underscores a sobering reality: while global momentum for a ceasefire is building, meaningful progress still depends on a single unpredictable factor—Putin’s willingness to stop the war.
