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WP: Soviet-era maps, war risks stall US mineral projects in Ukraine

Experts say US access to Ukrainian resources remains years away due to security risks, damaged infrastructure, and a lack of modern geological surveys.
byYuri Zoria
04/05/2025
3 minute read
antagonistic tone marks us-ukraine minerals deal talks says ukrainian trump has called proposed one “rare earths” though likely meant critical ukraine lacks major rare earth reserves holds some world’s largest
Ukrainian minerals. Trump called his proposed deal one on “rare earths,” though he likely meant critical minerals, as Ukraine lacks major rare earth reserves but holds some of the world’s largest deposits of graphite, lithium, titanium, beryllium, and uranium, all classified as critical by the US, per CNN. Map: CNN, based on Ukrainian Geological Survey, US Geological Survey, The Institute for the Study of War with AEI’s Critical Threats Project
WP: Soviet-era maps, war risks stall US mineral projects in Ukraine

The high-profile US-Ukraine mineral extraction deal—promoted earlier as a breakthrough in strategic partnership—faces serious obstacles due to outdated geological data, war risks, and weak rare earth reserves, according to industry experts cited by the Washington Post on 3 May.

US President Donald Trump is urging Ukraine to begin negotiations with Russia amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. Additionally, he pushed an initially one-sided mineral deal giving the US exclusive control over profits and imposing 4% interest, while retroactively converting past US aid into debt. Ukraine has signed reportedly a more balanced version, though the documents are unpublished and require parliamentary approval.

The deal, which includes US extraction rights to Ukraine’s mineral, oil, and gas resources, is designed to help repay future US military aid to Kyiv and the reconstruction of Ukraine. But analysts say actual shipments of critical materials like titanium, lithium, and graphite may not materialize for at least a decade.

“This absolutely is not a solution to these immediate problems,” said Reed Blakemore of the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, referring to US dependence on China for metals vital to weapons, electronics, and battery production.

Ukraine’s mining sector has seen little investment in decades, and most data on underground deposits come from obsolete Soviet-era maps. CDM Engineering Ukraine teams are still only beginning groundwater testing at sites like the Polokhivske lithium deposit in Kirovohrad Oblast.

ukraine seeks changes trump's proposed lifetime-reparations minerals deal telegraph ukrainian critical raw materials request significant sweeping new version president donald administration including requesting more investment person familiar matter spoke bloomberg
Infographic: The Telegraph

Ukraine lacks confirmed reserves of the 17 rare earth metals critical to defense and electronics. Despite Trump-era claims of $500 billion in rare earth value, experts call such figures unfounded. Conventional resources face hurdles too, with key oil and gas fields in war zones and infrastructure badly damaged. High costs of extraction and logistics continue to deter investors.

Former Biden official Zumwalt-Forbes and SAFE minerals expert Abigail Hunter both emphasized that even confirmed lithium reserves are modest and largely located in Russian-occupied territory. Hunter noted that infrastructure damage further erodes investor returns.

 

Despite these setbacks, some analysts still see political value in the deal.

“It signals that the US is engaged in Ukraine’s economy as a strategic partner,” said Jay Truesdale of TD International, acknowledging possible long-term investment gains.

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