Victory Day ceasefire: Ukrainian forces unveil Russia’s tactical intent

Past Russian “truces” resulted in documented 25% artillery surges the very next day, revealing how ceremonial peace gestures serve as operational covers for battlefield preparation—a pattern Ukraine now anticipates in Moscow’s upcoming Victory Day ceasefire.
russian troops ukraine
Russian troops in Ukraine. Image by Ukrainska Pravda
Victory Day ceasefire: Ukrainian forces unveil Russia’s tactical intent

The three-day “ceasefire” in May, like the previous Easter truce, will be used by Russian forces for regrouping, strengthening their defensive positions, and enhancing logistical support, says Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesperson for the Southern Defense Forces, UkrInform reports. 

Russia’s unilateral three-day ceasefire proposal, timed to coincide with its Victory Day celebrations, is widely seen by Ukraine and its allies as a manipulative gesture rather than a genuine step toward peace. Moscow has repeatedly rejected the US-backed 30-day truce, which Ukraine accepted, and continues to insist on maximalist demands, including halting Western military aid and ceding territory, which are non-starters for Ukraine. Earlier, the “Easter truce” saw continued Russian attacks, with Ukraine documenting nearly 3,000 violations. 

Voloshyn states that the Russian “Easter ceasefire” was only a facade. During this time, Ukrainian forces observed the occupiers reinforcing their defenses, evacuating their losses, and conducting logistical operations.

“The very next day, we saw a 25% increase in artillery shelling, along with a rise in the amount of ammunition used. Additionally, there was a 12-15% increase in kamikaze drone strikes.

I emphasize—this happened the very next day. In other words, the enemy exploited the ceasefire to conduct these regroupings and logistical reinforcements without interference,” Voloshyn says.

He adds that Russian forces did not cease reconnaissance activities and attempted to breach minefields at specific locations, though the Defense Forces successfully thwarted these efforts. In his opinion, the ceasefire announced by Putin for 9 May will similarly be used by Russian forces to strengthen their positions.

“During these three days, which the Russian leadership has proposed for the ‘ceasefire,’ I believe the enemy will also use it to reinforce themselves simply,” Voloshyn emphasizes.

Earlier, Putin declared a “ceasefire” on 8-10 May to honor Russia’s Victory Day, during which all combat operations by Russia were reportedly supposed to stop. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that there is no need to wait until 8 May, as Putin announced, and that a ceasefire could be implemented immediately if Russia really wants to halt its aggression against Ukraine. 

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