ISW: Russia maintains claims on unoccupied Ukrainian territories despite peace talks

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian officials continue to maintain “maximalist territorial claims over all occupied Ukraine and significant parts of unoccupied Ukraine” even as diplomatic discussions about ending the war progress, initiated by the US Trump administration.

As of March 2025, Russia currently controls approximately 19% of Ukraine’s territory, which is roughly equivalent to the area of the US state of Virginia.

The regions under Russian control include Crimea (fully occupied since 2014), parts of Donetsk Oblast (70% under Russian control as of December 2024), most of Luhansk Oblast (99% under Russian control as of December 2024), parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast (74% under Russian control as of December 2024) and parts of Kherson Oblast.

On 16 March, US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz stated that Ukraine will receive unspecified security guarantees in exchange for unspecified territorial concessions.

The ISW reports that senior Kremlin officials, including President Vladimir Putin, consistently demanded Ukraine surrender the entirety of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhizhia, and Kherson oblasts, including areas not currently under Russian control.

These demands have been reiterated in recent weeks, with Russian state media amplifying similar sentiments from Kremlin-affiliated sources.

Putin recently claimed that “Novorossiya”(translated as “New Russia”) is “an integral part of Russia,” with Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov defining this region as encompassing all of eastern and southern Ukraine, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Mykolaiv oblasts. 

Russia currently occupies only portions of Kharkiv and Mykolaiv territories and has no control over Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, suggesting their ambitions extend well beyond current frontlines.

“Continued Kremlin statements demanding that Ukraine cede unoccupied Ukrainian territory indicate that the Kremlin and Putin remain committed to these territorial goals despite ongoing negotiations,” the ISW states.

Russian officials have shown no public willingness to compromise on their territorial or security demands. Putin has repeatedly called for Ukraine to “permanently abandon its goals of joining NATO” and reject future foreign military assistance.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently claimed Russia would reject any future deployment of European peacekeepers to Ukraine.

The ISW warns that current frontlines do not provide Ukraine with adequate strategic depth for defense against potential renewed Russian aggression. Russian forces are positioned close to major Ukrainian cities, with troops just across the Dnipro River from Kherson City, approximately 25 km (15 miles) from Zaporizhzhia City, and 30 km (18 miles) from Kharkiv City.

A ceasefire along current lines could allow Russian forces to prepare for future operations while constructing infrastructure to reinforce their hold on occupied territories.

Defending the current 2,100-kilometer (1304 miles) frontline would require significantly increased Western military aid and a substantially larger Ukrainian military.

The ISW suggests that helping Ukraine regain strategically critical territory “could significantly reduce the cost and difficulty of securing a future peace.”