ISW found Russian forces seized 29% less territory in the six months to March 2026 than in the same period a year earlier, advancing at 10.66 km² per day versus 14.9 — a pace that makes Russia's two-month ultimatum on Donetsk Oblast a cognitive warfare tool, not a military reality.
"Novorossiya is an integral part of Russia," Putin recently declared, with his spokesperson Dmitry Peskov defining the region as encompassing eastern and southern Ukraine including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts—far beyond currently occupied territories.
Russian forces are losing up to 1,500 soldiers per day in 2024 while gaining minimal territory, marking the least efficient force-to-territory ratio in modern military operations.