The Institute for the Study of War reported on 13 March that Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the ceasefire proposal that the US and Ukraine recently agreed upon in Saudi Arabia and “offered an alternative proposal that undermines US President Donald Trump’s stated goal of securing a lasting peace in Ukraine.”
While claiming he “agrees” with the temporary ceasefire proposal and that the “idea itself is correct,” Putin insisted that any cessation of hostilities “should be such that it would lead to long-term peace and eliminate the initial causes” of the war, effectively rejecting one of the main principles of the US-Ukrainian proposal — that the temporary ceasefire precede formal negotiations to end the war.
Putin questioned several aspects of the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal, including what would happen to the remaining Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and whether Ukraine would be allowed to continue to mobilize forces, train newly mobilized soldiers, and receive military aid from its partners and allies.
Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported that a source close to the Russian Presidential Administration said Putin wants to remove Ukraine from talks so Russia can engage in negotiations with the United States alone while also “correcting the situation on the front” to strengthen Russia’s position.
“Putin is offering an alternative ceasefire agreement that is contrary to the intentions and goals of the US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal,” ISW says.
The US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal calls for a renewable 30-day cessation of combat operations along the entire frontline, a moratorium on long-range missile and drone strikes, and a cessation of operations in the Black Sea. It allows for Russia and Ukraine to extend the ceasefire and assumes the continuation of US intelligence sharing and military assistance to Ukraine.
“Putin’s envisioned ceasefire agreement would grant Russia greatly disproportionate advantages and set conditions for the Kremlin to renew hostilities on terms extremely favorable to Russia,” ISW wrote.
Putin’s ceasefire agreement would likely require the United States and Ukraine’s other supporters to pause military assistance to Ukraine and require Ukraine to stop recruiting and training personnel. According to ISW, such terms would begin to disarm Ukraine if renewed for a long period by preventing its military from reconstituting, training, and equipping itself.
ISW notes that Putin did not suggest Russia would also cease military recruitment efforts, the production of military equipment, and the receipt of military aid from Russia’s allies. This asymmetry would allow Russia to resume offensive operations with better manned and equipped units at a time of its choosing.
Analysis and implications
ISW assesses that Putin’s attempt to introduce a new ceasefire agreement on terms that asymmetrically benefit Russia ignores Trump’s stated intention that the ceasefire set conditions for negotiations toward a more comprehensive peace agreement.
According to ISW, an agreement along Putin’s suggested lines would undermine the Trump administration’s objective of bringing about a sustainable peace in Ukraine, would reinforce Putin’s belief that Russia can militarily defeat Ukraine, and would incentivize Putin to resume military operations rather than making concessions in formal negotiations.
ISW continues to assess that Putin is disinterested in good faith peace negotiations to end the war. The organization believes Putin remains committed to accomplishing his long-term goals of installing a pro-Russian puppet regime in Ukraine, undermining Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against future Russian aggression, and preventing Ukraine’s accession to NATO.
“Putin’s rejection of the ceasefire proposal underscores Putin’s commitment to securing his objectives in Ukraine, particularly Ukraine’s demilitarization, and disinterest in any pause in fighting that does not result in Ukrainian capitulation or at least set conditions for a successful renewal of Russian offensive operations in the future,” ISW concludes.
Related:
- Politico: Starmer’s diplomatic heavyweight works to repair Trump-Zelenskyy relations
- Trump’s Ukraine stance worrying for Russia’s neighbors, says David Cameron
- WP: Leaked document reveals Kremlin’s hardline Ukraine negotiation strategy
- What is the value of US security guarantees? Here’s what history shows
- Putin’s aide says Russia does not want a temporary truce
