The possibility of Russia capturing Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast for a second time may hinge on whether the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army, consisting of three divisions and five brigades with tens of thousands of soldiers, can establish a position on the western bank of the Oskil River, says David Axe in a Forbes report.
Kupiansk is a critical railway and logistical center, with multiple highways and five railway lines converging there. In 2022, Russian forces captured it in the first hours of their invasion. Ukrainian forces, counterattacking, liberated it seven months later. Now, the occupiers are attempting to seize it once again.
Control over the city would facilitate the movement of troops and supplies, enhancing Russian operational capabilities in Karkhiv Oblast. It would also provide Russian forces with a foothold for further offensive operations into eastern Ukraine, particularly targeting Donetsk Oblast. The capture of Kupiansk would also support flanking maneuvers against Kharkiv, making it easier to encircle the city.
“To capture Kupiansk, it will also be necessary to cross the Oskil River south of the city,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies explained.
The report highlights that the Russians have been making progress—several weeks ago, they crossed the river and captured the village of Novomlynsk, located north of Kupiansk. Going forward, they plan to move part of their forces across the Oskil River to the village of Dvorichna, between Novomlynsk and Kupiansk. The invaders aim to expand this foothold and construct a crossing over the Oskil River, likely replacing the pre-war bridge that was almost certainly destroyed during the past three years of fighting.
Forbes notes that efforts to build bridges could turn into a race, as when Russian engineers build pontoon bridges, the Ukrainian Air Force typically targets the floating spans.
“Given the significant concentration of forces near Kupiansk, including elements of the 1st Tank Army, our team assesses that Russian forces are preparing for a direct assault on the city,” said Frontelligence Insight group.
The analysts added that the scale of this buildup indicates that securing Kupiansk is a high-priority objective for the Russian military command. Overall, the expert said they are concerned about the situation in the city and see a real possibility of “rapid deterioration” in the coming period.
Related:
- Ukraine destroys 7 Russian vehicles near strategic hub Velyka Novosilka as UK intel confirms offensive
- UK intel: Russia continues to cut citizens off from independent media reporting on Ukraine
- UK intel: Russian forces repelled at Chasiv Yar, but advancing in Toretsk through urban warfare
- Russia switches to larger but rarer strikes on Ukraine, UK Intel says
- UK intel: North Korea pays heavy price for Russian alliance as casualties mount in Kursk Oblast
