ISW: Kremlin prioritizes force generation over economic concerns for 2025

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 30 December that the Kremlin appears to be prioritizing force generation requirements and domestic political stability over economic considerations as Russia approaches 2025.

Earlier, ISW highlighted that the Kremlin’s economic limitations hinder efforts to address Russia’s long-term demographic decline. ISW also noted that recruitment barely offsets casualty rates in Ukraine, with force-generation and industrial constraints likely undermining Russia’s protracted attrition strategy.

According to ISW, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on 30 December requiring illegal migrants to either obtain legal status or leave Russia by 30 April 2025. The decree outlines two main pathways to legalization: completing a comprehensive process including health screenings, passing Russian language, history, and legal examinations, and settling all debts; or signing a military service contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense.

ISW reports that Russia currently faces a labor shortage of 1.5 million workers. The new decree could exacerbate this situation if significant numbers of migrants working in food service, transportation, and other low-skilled industries either leave Russia or join the military.

The enforcement of this decree remains uncertain, ISW notes. The decision to enforce or not will likely indicate Russian authorities’ priorities in addressing various challenges. According to ISW, strict enforcement would suggest that authorities prioritize addressing ultra-nationalist concerns and regime security issues related to reported migrant crimes and terrorist acts over economic challenges.

“A decision not to enforce the decree would indicate that Russian authorities are more concerned with utilizing migrant labor to overcome Russia’s economic issues and labor shortages than messaging to the Kremlin’s ultranationalist constituency,” ISW says.

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