Ukrainian forces made significant inroads into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, prompting a substantial increase in Russian troop deployments to the region, according to Ukrainian officials and sources.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 14 September that the Russian authorities had bolstered their force grouping in Kursk Oblast by up to three times its original size in response to Ukraine’s incursion.
Vadym Mysnyk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Pivnich (Northern) Operational Command, said on 14 September that “Russian forces had 11,000 personnel deployed in Kursk Oblast at the start of Ukraine’s incursion in early August 2024.” Mysnyk added that current estimates place the Russian grouping in Kursk Oblast “between 30,000 and 45,000 personnel.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy corroborated this significant increase in troop numbers, who on 13 September asserted that “Russian forces have concentrated 40,000 personnel in Kursk Oblast and aim to concentrate a total of 60,000 to 70,000 personnel in the area.”
The ISW notes that the exact breakdown of Russian forces in the region remains unclear.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets said on 14 September that “there are roughly 61 Russian units of various sizes comprised of roughly 35,500 Russian personnel within the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces’ Kursk Group.” According to Mashovets, this group is responsible for several regions in the Kursk Oblast.
The ISW analysis suggests that the growth in Russian troop numbers in Kursk Oblast reflects the operational pressures caused by Ukraine’s incursion. It reports that the Russian military command has been forced to redeploy elements from Ukraine to Kursk Oblast and commit newly generated forces from Russia to the area rather than sending them to the frontline in Ukraine.
The report concludes that a Russian counteroffensive to retake territory seized by Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast would likely require even more manpower and materiel than Russia has already concentrated in the area, potentially necessitating additional redeployments from Ukraine.
Ukraine started its operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast on 6 August, swiftly capturing significant territory. On 11 September, Russia launched counterattacks in this area to recapture its territory.
Read also:
- ISW: Ukrainian forces make fresh breakthrough on Russian border in Kursk Oblast
- Russia’s counteroffensive in Kursk puts Ukraine’s gambit to the test
- Frontline report: Russian forces finally sacrifice Pokrovsk offensive to defend Kursk
