ISW: Putin believes Russia can slowly absorb Ukraine

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 3 September that Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains his belief that Russia can gradually subsume Ukraine through a war of attrition, despite recent Ukrainian incursions into Russian territory.

Ukraine started its incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast in early August, capturing a significant territory in its early phase. Among the claimed goals of the incursion was creating a buffer zone near the border to protect communities in Sumy Oblast from Russia’s cross-border shelling. Ukraine also aimed to divert Russian troops from the frontlines, partially succeeding as some Russian units were observed relocating from Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and, to a lesser extent, Donetsk Oblast.

According to the ISW, "Putin maintains that Russia can slowly and indefinitely subsume Ukraine through grinding advances and that Russia can achieve its goals through a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces and by outlasting Western support for Ukraine."

The think tank assesses that this belief makes Putin "averse to peace negotiations on terms other than Ukrainian and Western capitulation to his demands."

The ISW reports that while the recent Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast is having "operational-level impacts on the Russian military," it has likely not altered Putin's strategic thinking.

The report suggests that Putin's long-term strategy relies on wearing down Ukrainian forces and the resolve of Western allies supporting Ukraine.

The ISW argues that this approach indicates Putin's reluctance to engage in meaningful peace negotiations unless they align with his demands.

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