Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces’ Military Intelligence Center, believes that despite significant losses on the battlefield in Ukraine, Russia has sufficient resources to continue combat operations in 2025 and beyond.
Speaking on ERR on Friday, 26 July, Kiviselg said that Russia is failing to achieve its summer offensive campaign goals, suggesting Ukraine may be able to hold its defense this summer. He cited the recent repulsion of a massive Russian offensive in the Kurakhiv direction in the Donetsk Oblast as an example.
“Perhaps this week’s attempt is another desperate attempt to push a little from the side and try to influence the rear of the Ukrainians in such a way that those other areas where active fighting is taking place, so that the Ukrainians are forced to leave there simply because their logistics routes are cut off somewhere,” Kiviselg said.
However, the Estonian intelligence representative warned against optimistic assessments about Russia exhausting its military equipment and forces.
“I cannot say that Russia will run out of military equipment in 2025 because they also have some partners or allies who will still provide or send them resources for waging war. Whether it’s North Korea or Iran,” Kiviselg explained.
He added that with the current pace of combat operations and losses, it would be “very difficult for Russia to replenish its personnel and equipment,” noting that Russia was losing between 1,000 and 1,800 people on the front daily in June alone.
“But at the same time, Russia’s population is still so large that there is no tendency for serious changes at the front yet,” Kiviselg concluded.
He said last week that Russia maintains the intensity of attacks on the battlefield in Ukraine despite significant losses and the gradual arrival of Western weapons in Kyiv.
The report also mentions that Western analysts have previously reported that Russia has recommissioned weapons accumulated during Soviet times. Still, up to 70% of old tanks “did not move,” while others were washed and passed off as new.
The Russian forces also removed artillery barrels from old equipment and installed them on self-propelled howitzers. If this continues, the Russian Federation will reach a “critical point of exhaustion” in 2025.
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