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Russo-Ukrainian War. Day 461: Russia conducts another series of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine

Article by: Zarina Zabrisky

Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones. Putin signed a law to strengthen further the martial law regime in occupied areas of Ukraine. Russia deployed more S-400 air defense systems (probably at least a battery) to Belarus.

Daily overview — Summary report, May 30

The situation in Ukraine. May 29, 2023. Source: ISW.

The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 18.00 pm, May 30, 2023 is in the dropdown menu below:

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Day 461 of the full-scale russian military aggression continues.
The russian federation, suffering heavy losses, continues to wage a war of aggression. They continue to use terror tactics, trying to intimidate the population of Ukraine, bombing and shelling not only military, but also civilian objects.
During the day of May 30th, the russian federation carried out another massive airstrike on the territory of Ukraine, in particular, on the capital of our country, using the “Shahed-136/131” strike UAVs. 29x out of 31x drones were destroyed by our defenders.
Unfortunately, there are victims among the civilian population, private houses, other civil and administrative infrastructure have been damaged.
In general, the enemy carried out 44x air strikes and 1x missile strike, launched about 20x MLRS attacks on Ukrainian settlements and Ukrainian Defense Forces.
The threat of missile and air strikes remains high across Ukraine.
The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on attempts to completely occupy the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. During the day, Ukrainian Armed Forces forces repelled 11x enemy attacks.
Volyn’ and Polissya axes: the operational situation remains stable, there are no signs of the formation of offensive groupings.
Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna axes: the enemy continues to maintain a military presence in the areas bordering Ukraine.
Today, the enemy made an unsuccessful attempt to penetrate the DRG through the State Border of Ukraine in the area of Zelene settlement of Kharkiv Oblast. He also carried out an airstrike in the area of the village of Udy. Carried out mortar and artillery shelling of Yanzhulivka and Karpovychi settlements of Chernihiv Oblast; Seredyna-Buda, Fotovizh, Velika Pisarivka, Sumy Oblast.
Kup’yans’k axis: the enemy forces carried out unsuccessful offensives west of Masyutivka in the Kharkiv Oblast and on the Novoselivskyi axis in the Luhansk Oblast. Kam’ianka, Novomlyns’k, Dvorichna, Zapadne, Kislivka, Kotlyarivka, Berestov in the Kharkiv Oblast were shelled by enemy artillery and mortars.
Donetsk Battle Map. May 29,2023. Source: ISW.
Lyman axis: russian forces did not conduct offensive operations. They carried out airstrikes in the vicinities of Belogorivka, Luhansk Oblast, and Yampolivka, Donetsk Oblast. Nevs’ke, Belogorivka of the Luhansk Oblast and Spirne of the Donetsk Oblast were shelled by artillery fire.
Bakhmut Battle Map. May 29, 2023. Source: ISW.
Bakhmut axis: the enemy forces did not conduct offensive operations. He carried out an air strike in the Vesely area and a missile strike in the New York area of the Donetsk Oblast. Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Khromov, Ivanivske, Bila Gora, Severnye, Zalizne and New York of the Donetsk Oblast suffered from enemy artillery shelling.
Avdiivka axis: the adversary carried out offensive operation near Severne, albeit without success. Enemy airstrikes recorded in the
Avdiivka area. russians shelled Avdiivka, Orlivka, Pervomais’ke and Netaylovo in the Donetsk Oblast.
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defenders repelled all enemy attacks in the vicinities of Mar’inka, as well as near Pobieda and Novomykhailivka. At the same time, the enemy forces carried out an airstrike near the Mariinka area. Georgiivka and Pobeda of the Donetsk Oblast were shelled by artillery.
Shakhtars’k axis: the enemy launched an airstrike in the area of Velika Novosilka. They shelled Vugledar, Novoukrainka, Prechistivka, Zolota Niva, and Shakhtars’ke.
Zaporizhzhia Battle Map. May 29, 2023. Source: ISW.
Zaporizhzhia and Kherson axes: russian forces are on the defensive. They carried out an airstrike in the Orikhov Oblast of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Shelled the settlements of Zelene Pole, Novopil, and Temyrivka in the Donetsk Oblast; Olhivske, Gulyaipole, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanilivka, Orihiv, Novoandriivka and Stepove of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast; Sadove, Komyshany, Kizomys, Kherson Oblast.
Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map. May 29, 2023. Source: ISW.
Ukrainian Air Force conducted 8x strikes on manpower and military equipment concentration areas.
Ukrainian missile and artillery units hit 3x control points, weapons and military equipment concentration, 4x artillery units at firing positions, an anti-aircraft missile system, 3x warehouses of fuel and lubricants, and a radio-electronic warfare station.

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Military Updates

Shelling by Russian Troops. Icelandic Data Analyst.

Festival in Kyiv celebrates legacy of heroic soldier and activist Roman Ratushnyy. A festival has been inaugurated in Kyiv in honor of the fallen Ukrainian soldier and activist, Roman Ratushnyy. The event took place in the meadow of Protasiv Yar, an area that Roman had staunchly defended from encroaching development, with intentions of establishing it as a nature reserve.

Russian forces bomb gas station in Donetsk Oblast: one killed, nine injured (photos). Russian forces launched an airstrike on a gas station in Toretsk, resulting in one death and nine injuries. According to the investigation of Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor’s Office, on May 29th at around 11:30, the Russian military once again shelled the city of Toretsk in the Donbas region, possibly deploying FAB-250s. One of the airstrikes hit a local gas station, killing a 28-year-old worker. In addition, preliminary reports indicate that eight civilians – six women and two men – sustained injuries of varying severity.

Frontline report: Ukrainians make tactical gains in two directions near Bakhmut

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours): 

British Intelligence map.

  • On 25 May 2023, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported that Russian military spending grew by 9.2 per cent in 2022 to USD $86.4 billion. SIPRI assesses this equates to 4.1 per cent of Russia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
  • Russia’s true military spending is highly uncertain due to the increased use of classified budget lines, especially since February 2022, and the lack of transparency.
  • Russia has only recently resumed publishing headline expenditure breakdowns after suspending this in May 2022. It is almost certain that military spending remains elevated, and this is putting pressure on Russian government finances.

Losses of the Russian army 

Losses of the Russian Army. Source: ISW.

Humanitarian 

Human toll of Russian attack: 1 fatality and 10 injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. In a recent attack by Russian forces, one woman was killed and 10 people were hospitalized on May 29th after the shelling of the Pokrovsk community in the Synelnykove district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Among the victims is an 11-year-old boy, Head of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration informed. Three of the injured are in critical condition, while the rest are in a moderate state of severity. People have gunshot wounds, fractures, lacerations, and head injuries. Two private houses were destroyed.

Children flee to shelters amid explosions during Russian attack on Kyiv (video).

Children flee to shelters amid explosions during Russian attack on Kyiv (video)

Support

Denmark commits additional 2.6 billion USD in military aid to Ukraine amid critical war stage. Denmark plans to increase its military aid to Ukraine with an additional $2.6 billion in funding over this year and the next, amid a critical point in the war. This move signals the Danish government’s commitment to supporting Ukraine as it navigates an intense period of war. “The war in Ukraine is at a very critical point, with a serious situation on the battlefield, and therefore Ukraine needs all the support they can get,” said Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in an interview with DR News. She pointed out that the usage of weapons and ammunition is “unfortunately very, very high” due to the high level of aggression from the Russian side, highlighting the need for further funds.

Poland suspends freight traffic registered in Belarus and Russia. Mariusz Kamiński, Minister of the Interior and Administration in Poland, issued a regulation that suspends freight traffic on the border with Belarus for vehicles registered in Belarus and Russia, according to Polska Agencja Prasowa. It applies to trucks, tractors, trailers, semi-trailers and vehicle combinations. Kamiński signed and published the regulation on Monday in the Journal of Laws after he added 365 representatives of the Belarusian regime, 20 entities and 16 entrepreneurs, most of which are linked to the Russian capital, to the sanctions list. He announced his decision on Friday, following the Belarusian Supreme Court’s confirmation of the eight-year sentence for Andrzej Poczobut, a Polish minority activist, in a maximum security prison.

New Developments

Ukrainian tennis player disappointed by crowd’s boos for not shaking hands with Belarusian player. Ukrainian tennis player Marta Kostiuk expressed surprise and disappointment when she was met with boos from the crowd following her match at the French Open in Paris. Kostiuk faced a defeat against Belarusian player Aryna Sabalenka in the opening round of the tournament. It was her refusal to shake hands with Sabalenka after the match that drew the negative reaction from spectators. The boos directed at Kostiuk came as a result of her decision to forgo the traditional post-match handshake with her opponent. The Ukrainian tennis player has been known to abstain from shaking hands with Russian and Belarusian players due to the ongoing war between Ukraine and these countries. Kostiuk sees her actions as a personal protest against the war and the actions of these nations.

Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada approves 50-year sanctions on Iran. Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada has agreed to impose sanctions on Iran, following a decision made by the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine. This information comes directly from MP Yaroslav Zhelezniak. The parliament approved bill №9333, which proposes the implementation of several sectoral economic and other restrictive measures (sanctions) against the Islamic Republic of Iran for a period of 50 years. This bill received 328 votes in favour.

Assessment 

  1. On the war. 

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of  May 31, 2022:

Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29 and during the day on May 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 40 Kh-101/Kh-555 air-based cruise missiles and 38 Shahed-131/136 drones on the night of May 28 to 29 and 11 Iskander-M/K missiles during the day on May 29.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defenses destroyed in all 36 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, 30 Shahed drones, and all 11 Iskander missiles.[2] Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces intercepted all 11 Iskander missiles, and 40 cruise missiles and Shahed drones that targeted Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast.[3] Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces also intercepted missiles and drones near the cities of Lviv, Mykolaiv, and Odesa and that Russian forces struck port infrastructure in Odesa City and a military infrastructure facility in Khmelnytskyi Oblast.[4] Russian forces launched a relatively higher number of missiles than in recent series of strikes following the largest Russian series of Shahed strikes since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on May 28.[5] ISW previously assessed that Russian forces began a new limited air campaign in recent months to degrade Ukrainian counteroffensive capabilities, but that the Russian prioritization of targeting Kyiv is likely further limiting the campaign’s ability to meaningfully constrain potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions.[6]

Russia deployed more S-400 air defense systems (probably at least a battery) to Belarus on May 28. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense released a video on May 28 showing a train with S-400 systems deploying to an unspecified area in Belarus.[7] Independent Belarusian monitoring organization The Hajun Project reported that the train with S-400s arrived at the 25th Missile Arsenal near Stoubtsi (about 60 km southwest of Minsk).[8] It is unclear whether these S-400s will enter service near Stoubtsi or deploy further to a different location. These systems will likely enter service with the Belarusian military but under Russian operational control. Russia’s and Belarus’ Joint Regional Air Defense System (established in 2009 and operational in 2016) effectively subordinates Belarus’ air defense assets to the Russian Western Military District.[9] Belarusian officials confirmed that Russian-provided S-400 in Belarus became operational and deployed on combat duty on December 25, 2022.[10] ISW forecasted in 2020 that Russia would deploy S-400s to Belarus.[11]

Former Russian Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev confirmed that he is now operating as deputy commander of the Wagner Group. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger published an interview on May 29 in which Mizintsev confirmed previous claims that he assumed the position.[12] Mizintsev stated that he has maintained good relations with Wagner for the previous 10 years, further substantiating reports that Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin used close connections with Mizintsev to secure resources for Wagner while Mizintsev was in the Russian MoD.[13] Mizintsev claimed to be in Bakhmut overseeing the ongoing relief-in-place operation and claimed that Wagner is conducting an organized withdrawal.[14] Mizintsev praised the Wagner commanders and advocated that Wagner’s structure and management become a model for the total war that Russia needs to be fighting.[15] Mizintsev declined to comment about feuds between the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Wagner but highlighted that the Russian military has struggled with ammunition provisions and conducting a large-scale mobilization of the Russian nation to win in Ukraine.[16] ISW previously assessed that Prigozhin likely appointed Mizintsev as Wagner deputy commander in an effort to retain Wagner’s access to supplies, and Prigozhin has since promoted Mizintsev as his preferred replacement for Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.[17] Mizintsev’s publicized confirmation of his position and adulation of Wagner is likely part of Prigozhin’s wider effort to advocate for more influence following the capture of Bakhmut.[18]

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied former Russian officer Igor Girkin’s May 27 accusation that Prigozhin could stage a military coup against the Kremlin by arguing that Wagner lacks the personnel needed to start a coup. Prigozhin stated on May 29 that there are different types of coups across the globe – including a “chaotic military coup” in Sudan – which take too long and result in major conflicts.[19] Prigozhin argued that Wagner does not have a large enough army required to carry out a coup and claimed that Wagner has good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Prigozhin vaguely implied that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu could stage a coup as he has access to the Russian Special Forces. Prigozhin added that while some individuals in Russia are expecting a revolution Wagner is only advocating for select corrections to the Russian system. Prigozhin’s response to Girkin notably follows his response to a media inquiry in which he hypothesizes about who could have authorized the reported ban on mentions of Wagner on the Russian state media, and even considered Putin.[20] Prigozhin then stated that there is an effort in Russia to avoid recognizing the legitimate heroes of this war and that “the officials-bureaucrats who run the Russian state today must remain the heroes and they are the only ones who can be thanked.” He added that “if they aren’t thanked, then they say, ‘Fine, heck with it, praise the president,’” implying that Putin is receiving unearned praise and thanks because of the unwillingness of Russian bureaucrats to honor those who truly deserve it. Prigozhin has dramatically increased the number of direct references to Putin since May 9 – after he indirectly criticized Putin during the Victory Day holiday.[21]

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning denied a Wall Street Journal report that Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui urged European officials to end the conflict in Ukraine before it escalates.[22] Mao claimed that European officials acknowledged China’s “positive role in promoting peace talks” and appreciated China’s “calling for sovereignty and territorial integrity.”[23] Mao claimed that the war in Ukraine is “now at a critical juncture” and that China continues to attempt to work with all parties to resolve the “crisis.” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that European officials did not confirm reports that Li urged them attempt to end the war or consider recognizing Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine as Russian territory.[24] Kuleba also stated that Ukraine will continue to engage with China on the basis of three principles: mutual respect for territorial integrity, no proposals of territorial concessions, and no suggestions of freezing the conflict.

Russian authorities continue to forcefully integrate dioceses of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC MP) in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast into the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) demonstrating the integral connection of the ROC with the Russian state. Zaporizhzhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that the Russian Bishop of Bronnitsky, Luka, held the first liturgy of the Russian Orthodox Church in Berdiansk Cathedral, which the Russian Orthodox Church had taken control over on May 16.[25] Rogov claimed that Russian Orthodox Church Head Patriarch Kirill appointed Bishop of Bronnitsky Luka as head of the Berdiansk and Prymorsk dioceses of the ROC. The Berdiansk and Prymorsk dioceses were previously part of the Russian-affiliated UOC MP, and their forced integration with the ROC emphasizes the close relationship between the ROC and the Russian state.[26]

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29 and during the day on May 29.
  • Russia deployed more S-400 air defense systems (probably at least a battery) to Belarus on May 28.
  • Former Russian Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev confirmed that he is now operating as deputy commander of the Wagner Group.
  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied former Russian officer Igor Girkin’s May 27 accusation that Prigozhin could stage a military coup against the Kremlin by arguing that Wagner lacks the personnel needed to start a coup.
  • Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning denied a Wall Street Journal report that Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui urged European officials to end the conflict in Ukraine before it escalates.
  • Russian authorities continue to forcefully integrate dioceses of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC MP) in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast into the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) demonstrating the integral connection of the ROC with the Russian state.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupiansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • The tempo of Russian offensive operations in and around Bakhmut remains notably low.
  • Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, particularly focusing on Marinka.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast and are expanding fortifications in Mariupol.
  • Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled limited Ukrainian reconnaissance in force operations in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • The Russian military command appears to be introducing doctrinal organization to some of its irregular formations.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on May 29 that will further strengthen the martial law regime in occupied areas of Ukraine.
  • Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely not hospitalized as of May 29.
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