Springtime muddy conditions to benefit Ukraine’s defending forces – British intel

In its March 2 intelligence update, the British Defense Ministry says that as Ukrainian troops are on the defensive in Donetsk's Bakhmut, the muddy springtime conditions may provide some military advantage to defenders by limiting the attackers' cross-country movement as the final thaw will humper "the off-road movement of heavier armoured vehicles, especially over churned-up ground in the Bakhmut sector."

The ministry wrote:

• "As Ukrainian forces continue their defence of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, rising temperatures are now creating the muddy conditions known in Ukrainian as ‘bezdorizhzhia’, limiting cross country movement (CCM). Poor CCM typically provides some military advantage to defending forces."
• "Daytime soil temperatures have risen and are now largely above freezing. As experienced since mid-February 2023, overnight freeze and daytime thaw remains likely until next week. Forecast warmer than average conditions for the remainder of winter and spring will further reduce CCM."
• "It is almost certain that by late-March, CCM will be at its worst following the final thaw. This will add further friction to ground operations and hamper the off-road movement of heavier armoured vehicles, especially over churned-up ground in the Bakhmut sector."

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