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Russo-Ukrainian War. Day 353: Ukrainian air defense destroys 61 of 106 Russian missiles

Article by: Zarina Zabrisky

Russia launches another massive missile attack on Ukraine. Of 106 missiles, including 32 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles, 74 air- and sea-launched cruise missiles, 61 destroyed by Ukrainian air defense. Russian missile overflights of NATO territory are highly unlikely to prompt an escalation. Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and around Kreminna, in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk and conducted a limited ground attack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Daily overview — Summary report, February 11

The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 18.00 pm, February 11, 2023 is in the dropdown menu below:

Situation in Ukraine. February 10, 2023. Source: ISW.

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Day 353 of the russian full-scale invasion has begun.
During the day of February 10, the adversary unleashed another massive missile attack on the territory of Ukraine, launching 106x missiles, including at civilian infrastructure. In the attack, the enemy employed 32x S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 74x air- and sea-launched cruise missiles, 61x of which were destroyed by Ukrainian defenders. In addition, the russian occupant forces launched 59x air strikes, 28x of them employing Shahed-136 UAVs. 22x drones were shot down. The adversary also made over 90x MLRS attacks.
The threat of strikes by the russian federation on civilian targets across Ukraine remains high.
Despite significant losses, the enemy continues its offensive operations on Kup’yans’k, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka axes.
During the day of February 10, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled occupant forces’ attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Kreminna, Shypylivka, Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast), Krasna Hora, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, and Paraskoviivka (Donetsk oblast).
Kharkiv Battle Map. February 10, 2023. Source: ISW.
Volyn, Polissya, Sivershchyna, and Slobozhanshchyna axes: no significant changes, no signs of the formation of offensive groups were found.
At the same time, the enemy units remain stationed in the areas bordering Ukraine. Shelling of the positions of Ukrainian troops and settlements near the line of contact does not stop. During the day of February 10, russian troops shelled the settlements of Sen’kivka, Khrinivka, Leonivka (Chernihiv oblast), Porokhon’, Studenok, Bilokopytove, Vovkivka, Stari Vyrky, Shpyl’, Pavlivka, Ponomarenky (Sumy oblast), Udy, Chervona Zorya, Strilecha, Hlyboke, Luk’yantsi, Ohirtseve, Ternova, and Fyholivka (Kharkiv oblast).
Kup’yans’k and Lyman axes: the adversary fired mortars and artillery at the vicinities of settlements of Novomlyns’k, Hryanykivka, Dvorichna, Zakhidne, Syn’kivka, Kucherivka, Pishchane, Krokhmal’ne, Berestove (Kharkiv oblast), Makiivka, Ploshchanka, Dibrova, and Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast).
Donetsk Battle Map February 10, 2023. Source ISW.
Bakhmut axis: the vicinities of settlements of Mykolaivka, Spirne, Vasyukivka, Vesele, Berestove, Bilohorivka, Berkhivka, Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka, Chasiv Yar, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Bila Hora, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, Toretsk, Pivdenne, and Maiors’k (Donetsk oblast) came under tank, mortar, and artillery fire.
Avdiivka and Novopavlivka axes: the vicinities of Avdiivka, Pervomais’ke, Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Mar’inka, Bohoyavlenka, Novomykhailivka, Zolota Nyva, Prechystivka, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast) were shelled with tanks, mortars, and artillery.
Zaporizhzhia Battle Map. February 10, 2023. Source: ISW.
Zaporizhzhia axis: the vicinities of settlements of Vremivka, Novopil’ (Donetsk oblast), Ol’hivs’ke, Malynivka, Hulyaipole, Stepove, Shcherbaky, Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Charivne (Zaporizhzhia oblast) came under fire.
Kherson axis: Antonivka (Kherson oblast), the city of Kherson, as well as Ochakiv (Mykolaiv oblast) were subject to enemy artillery fire.
Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map. February 10, 2023. Source: ISW.
In the city of Melitopol’, collaborators working in the occupation administration were suggested to renounce their Ukrainian citizenship in writing.
In certain settlements of the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast, russian occupiers continue to exert pressure on local residents, impose curfews, and search houses.
In Starobil’s’k (Luhansk oblast), the surgical department of a local hospital has been re-arranged as a military hospital due to the large number of wounded occupants. In certain settlements of Luhansk oblast, enemy mobile crematoria were reported to operate earlier.
During the day of February 10, the Ukrainian Air Force launched 12x air strikes on the concentrations of the enemy, as well as 4x strikes on the positions of its anti-aircraft missile systems.
Missile troops and artillery units hit 2x concentrations of manpower, 1x ammunition depot, 1x position of the anti-aircraft missile system, as well as 3x other important enemy targets.

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Military Updates

Shelling by Russian Troops. Icelandic Data Analyst.

Russians use dead comrades as shields to advance on Bakhmut – a Ukrainian defender. Ukrainian journalist Illia Berezenko joined the ranks of the Ukrainian territorial defense units in Kyiv, participated in the defense of Kyiv Oblast, and later fought at one of the most difficult positions near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region. He was wounded in November 2022 while holding a position surrounded on three sides. After two months of treatment, he returned to the front.

In his interviews with censor.net and espresso.tv, translated below, he described what the battles in Bakhmut looked like. On some days, the Russians tried to advance to Ukrainian positions 3-4 times a day. Although their attempts mostly failed with terrible losses, many Ukrainian servicemen were also killed by Russian artillery and mortar fire, he says.

Russia launched 35 S-300 missiles which cannot be destroyed by air defenses – Ukraine’s Air Force. On 10 February, Russia’s occupiers launched a massive attack with S-300 anti-aircraft missiles from the districts of Belgorod (Russia) and Tokmak (occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast), Air Force of Ukraine informs. Up to 35 anti-aircraft guided missiles (S-300) were launched into Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, which cannot be destroyed in the air by means of air defense.

Ukraine Air Force destroyed 5 Russian Kalibr cruise missiles and 5 Shahed drones. On 10 February 2023, Russia struck the cities and critical infrastructure facilities of Ukraine. Seven Shahed-136/131 kamikaze drones from the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov and six Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles from a Russian frigate in the Black Sea were used.

Russian air defense vulnerable to Ukrainian drones that can hit Moscow. A Ukrainian kamikaze drone Tu-141 that crashed near Kaluga (Russia) on Monday revealed the mystery behind Ukraine’s long-range strikes deep inside the Russian territory. Ukraine could have used modified Tu-141 “Stryzh” (Martlet) and Tu-143 unmanned aerial vehicles several times last year to strike military targets on the territory of the Russian Federation and in the temporarily occupied Crimea. Still, there was no solid evidence to confirm that Ukrainian forces really resorted to such old-fashioned Soviet-era weapons to break through the Russian air defense.

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours): 

  • On 09 February 2023, Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin stated that Wagner had halted its prisoner recruitment scheme.

 

  • Data from the Russian Federal Penal Service had already suggested a drop-off in the rate of prisoner recruitment since December 2022. News of the harsh realities of Wagner service in Ukraine has probably filtered through to inmates and reduced the number of volunteers.

 

  • A key factor in the termination of the scheme is likely increasingly direct rivalry between the Russian Ministry of Defence and Wagner. The regular Russian military has likely now also deployed the vast majority of the reservists called up under ‘partial mobilisation’.

 

  • The Russian leadership faces the difficult choice of either continuing to deplete its forces, scale back objectives, or conduct a further form of mobilisation.

Losses of the Russian army 

Losses of Russian Army. Source

Humanitarian 

Ukraine sends “unarmed heroes” right from the war zone to quake-ravaged Türkiye. Right from the war zone, Ukraine has dispatched seasoned search and rescue experts. In total, Ukraine sent 87 personnel, 18 vehicles, and ten search and rescue dogs to mitigate the effects of the powerful earthquake in Türkiye, as reported by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine’s (SESU) Telegram channel.

Environmental

75% of Ukraine’s thermal power plants don’t work due to continuous Russian missile attacks. Almost two dozen power units of thermal power plants remain damaged due to constant Russian missile attacks against Ukraine’s power grid, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated during the meeting of the government.

The water level in Dnipro dropped by 1.5 meters due to damage by Russians and fish dying en masse. Due to the damage by the Russian occupiers to the shut-off valves of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power plant, the water level in the Dnipro is decreasing. As of January 19, the Department of Environmental Protection of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration noted that the water level in the Kakhovskyi Reservoir has dropped by almost 1.5 meters, but the water continues to drain. In the floodplain of the Dnipro, shallow water channels are drying up, and fish that remain in these channels are dying en masse.

Ukraine’s energy infrastructure under attack for the 14th time as air alert was announced all over Ukraine. On February 10, an air alert was announced throughout Ukraine. It lasted for 3,5 hours until 12:05 pm. The head of the Odesa Administration Maksym Marchenko said that air defense units destroyed 13 missiles over Odesa. The mayor of Kyiv reported that 10 Russian missiles were shot down over the capital. Besides, 5 Russian Kalibr cruise missiles and 5 Shakhed drones were destroyed this morning by Ukraine’s Air Force.

Three more Belarusian “rail partisans” were convicted in Belarus, two of them to 22 years of imprisonment. Three more Belarusian “rail partisans” were convicted in Belarus for trying to damage railways used to supply military echelons to Ukraine by Russia. The Belarusian partisans Dmitriy Klimav, Uladzimir Avramtsav, and Yevhen Minkevich were involved in the destruction of two railway relay cabins near Asipovichi, the Belarusian investigation established. They were accused of “terrorism” and “treason of state,” Belarusian media Viasna reports.

Crimean Tatar political prisoner died in a Russian prison. Crimean Tatar activist Dzhemil Hafarov, previously convicted by the Russian “court” in occupied Crimea, died on 10 February 2022. He was diagnosed with kidney failure. In November 2022, he suffered a heart attack. According to Hafarov, the pre-trial detention center administration refused to provide him with proper medical care. The lawyers said detention in the pre-trial detention center was dangerous for Gafarov’s life, RFE/RL reports.

Support

Slovakia can start negotiating the supply of Soviet MIG-29 planes to Ukraine after Zelenskyy’s request – Prime Minister. Slovakian Prime Minister Eduard Heger confirmed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked him for the supply of Soviet-designed MiG-29 fighters. He added that the process of negotiating the supply can now begin. He emphasized that decommissioned fighter jets, which Slovakia will not use, can save lives in Ukraine, Minuta reports.

Ukraine officially asked the Netherlands for F-16 fighter jets. Ukraine has submitted a request to the Netherlands to supply F-16 fighter aircraft. This has been confirmed by Dutch Minister of Defense Kajsa Ollongren, Dutch media outlet NOS reports. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has asked for “wings for freedom.”

Lithuania gives Ukraine 36 anti-aircraft guns that can defeat Shaheds. Arvydas Anušauskas, Lithuania’s Defense Minister, has stated that as part of the announced assistance package from Lithuania, Ukraine will receive 36 anti-aircraft guns to combat drones, including Shaheds, reports European Pravda referencing the briefing between Arvydas Anušauskas’s and Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, Oleksii Reznikov.

New Developments 

Ukraine started selling confiscated Russian property at online auctions to collect money for the reconstruction of damaged objects. The government has approved the procedure for using funds from the Fund for Liquidation of the Consequences of Russia’s Armed Aggression. In particular, the fund will use money from selling property confiscated from Russia or Russian oligarchs in Ukraine.

35 countries will demand that Russian and Belarusian athletes be banned from the 2024 Olympics. A group of 35 countries, including the United States, Germany, and Australia, will demand that Russian and Belarusian athletes are banned from the 2024 Olympics. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy took part in the online meeting attended by 35 ministers to discuss the call for the ban, a Lithuanian sports ministry spokesperson said, Reuters reports. As was reported earlier, Ukrainian journalists called on the media to boycott the Olympic Games in case of Russian and Belarusian participation.

IOC hints at consequences for Ukrainian athletes Olympics’ boycott plans.  Ukraine Olympics team’s boycott plans for the 2024 Olympics in France have been met with strong criticism from International Olympic Committee’s (IOC) President, Thomas Bach. He even alluded to the possibility of punishment against Ukrainian athletes, as reported by German journalist Hajo Seppelt on Twitter, referring to the 31 January Bach’s letter to Vadym Huttsait, President of Ukraine’s National Olympic Committee (NOC).

Romania doesn’t confirm Ukrainian claims that Russian missiles crossed its airspace. The Romanian Defence Ministry said in a statement on Friday that the Russian missile had „at no time” crossed Romanian airspace, G4media reports. At the same time, Ukrainian Commander in Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said that two Russian missiles crossed the airspace of Romania before re-entering Ukrainian airspace during the massive Russian missile attack against Ukraine on 10 February 2022.

Ukrainian journalists call on the media to boycott the Olympic Games because of Russian and Belarusian participation. On January 25, 2023, the International Olympic Committee published a statement that Russian and Belarusian athletes will be able to participate in the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris after the Asian qualification. “Such a cynical detour is tried to be softened by the fact that Russians and Belarusians will perform with neutral flags and without using national symbols. However, as the President of Ukraine noted, “any “neutral” flag of Russian athletes is stained with blood,” Ukrainian media organization Internews writes.

Zelenskyy says he warned Sandu about Russia’s plan to destabilize Moldova (updated). In his speech at a special meeting of the European Council on 9 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian intelligence recently managed to intercept Russia’s plan about its intention to destroy the political order in Moldova, and these data had been handed over to Moldovan President Maia Sandu, Ukrinform reports.

Assessment 

  1. On the war. 

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of  February 10, 2022:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-10-2023*

Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on February 10. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched over 100 missiles against critical and civil infrastructure throughout Ukraine including S-300 surface-to-air missiles in ground attack mode and air and sea-based Kh-101/Kh-55 and Kalibr-28 cruise missiles.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces also launched seven Shahed-type drones and that Ukrainian air defense intercepted 61 of the cruise missiles.[2] Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat noted that Russian forces struck Kharkiv Oblast with S-300 missiles from the direction of Belgorod Oblast and Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.[3] Russian milbloggers widely lauded the wave of strikes and claimed they hit energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, Pavlohrad, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, and Kharkiv oblasts.[4] Russian claims of the scale and effectiveness of the strikes are overblown in comparison to official Ukrainian statements, and Russian forces continue to expend already limited stocks of precision munitions on such strikes.

Russian missile overflights of NATO territory are highly unlikely to prompt an escalation, and ISW continues to assess with high confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to risk a direct conflict with NATO. Russian forces fired two cruise missiles from the Black Sea that reportedly crossed Romanian and Moldovan airspace before entering Ukrainian airspace.[5] Russia’s ongoing campaign of missile strikes in support of its illegal invasion of Ukraine will continue to generate peripheral risks outside of Ukraine, such as these overflights or the risk of air defense incidents (as in Poland on November 15, 2022). However, ISW assesses that NATO (and individual member states) are in full control over its responses and the degree to which it chooses to escalate in response to accidental or intentional Russian overflights or other provocations. ISW also continues to assess with high confidence that Putin does not seek a war with NATO and is unlikely to directly risk an escalation.

Recent footage of a failed Russian assault near Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast has become the latest point of neuralgia in the Russian information space. Milbloggers latched onto the footage to launch several critiques of Russian military leadership.[6] Russian milbloggers claimed that the same Russian commanders who oversaw highly attritional assaults by the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade on Pavlivka (near Vuhledar) in November 2022 are responsible for the effort to capture Vuhledar, and argued that the video illustrates that these commanders continue to make the same costly mistakes.[7] One Russian milblogger specifically stated that Eastern Grouping of Forces commander Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov is responsible for Russian tactical failures around Vuhledar.[8] Another Russian milblogger called for public trials to punish high-ranking officers who repeatedly fail on the battlefield and argued that Russian forces will continue to repeat the same mistakes if these commanders remain in their positions.[9] Footage shows these Russian forces engaging in highly dysfunctional tactics that are far more indicative of the fact that the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade is likely comprised of poorly trained mobilized personnel than of poor command.[10] Russian milbloggers likely blamed Russian commanders to downplay the fact that the systemic poor training of Russian mobilized personnel will likely continue to result in similar tactical failures throughout Ukraine. Russian milbloggers have routinely accused Russian commanders of being responsible for tactical failures throughout the war, likely to shift the overall Russian military failure in Ukraine from the Russian military as an institution onto individuals.

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine.
  • Russian missile overflights of NATO territory are highly unlikely to prompt an escalation, and ISW continues to assess with high confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to risk a direct conflict with NATO.
  • Recent footage of a failed Russian assault near Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast has become the next point of neuralgia in the Russian information space and demonstrated the systemic poor training of Russian mobilized personnel.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and around Kreminna.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas as well as in western Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces reportedly conducted a limited ground attack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Russian authorities are likely placing restrictions on movement in and out of Russia to support crypto-mobilization efforts.
  • Russian officials and occupation authorities are intensifying measures to integrate children in occupied territories using government-funded civic organizations.

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