Daily overview — Summary report, July 17
A map of the approximate situation on the ground in Ukraine as of 00:00 UTC 17/07/22.
There have been no notable changes to control since the last update. pic.twitter.com/drr8h9vZ3z
— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) July 17, 2022
The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, July 15, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below.
Military Updates
Russia is preparing for a new stage of offensive – Ukrainian intel
"The enemy is activizing along the entire front…Undoubtedly, preparations are now underway for the next stage of offensive actions"- Ukrainian Intel Directorate representative Skibitskyihttps://t.co/9PDplL9Xt6 pic.twitter.com/nzmnLd9ijq
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) July 17, 2022
A senior Pentagon official said during a briefing, “We assess that Russian forces are limited to incremental, if any, gains around the northern Donbas, held off by Ukrainian defenses. Russian forces continue to deploy indiscriminate artillery bombardment, along with air missile strikes.
Near Kharkiv, we assess that the Ukrainians are continuing to defeat Russian attempts to gain ground. In the vicinity of Izium, and Sloviansk, it’s generally the same. So you know, pretty strong defenses from the Ukrainians and the Russians have stated publicly that they want to move on Sloviansk, but still have not been able to do so. And then we certainly assess that they continue to employ artillery attacks around Seversk. […]
In the south in Mykolaiv and Kherson, nothing really to update you with on the ground, as both sides are continuing to defend or really, no real progress there.
On the maritime domain, I think a number of you have reported that we did see the Vinnytsia missile attack yesterday came from what we believe or has been reported and we believe there’s no reason to suggest otherwise– was submarine-launched missiles from the Russians. What we know for a fact is that they hit and killed a number of civilians. And I think all told over the week, again, through your reporting, I think we’re looking at between 100, 150, somewhere in there, civilian casualties, civilian deaths, this week in Ukraine as a result of Russian strikes.
Ukraine will use HIMARS to strike Russian military objects in occupied Crimea – intel
GUR rep Vadym Skybitskyi: Crimea has become a Russian weapons hub & launchpad of the Black Sea fleet; therefore objects there need to be hit to ensure safety of Ukrainehttps://t.co/I69z1bOIUV pic.twitter.com/PeVMD0ksvQ
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) July 16, 2022
In terms of HIMARS, I know there’s continuing to be a lot of interest about how the HIMARS are performing. […] I’ll let the battlefield videos and the Ukrainian reports speak for themselves. They are having an effect, […]
We continue to train Ukrainians. We continue to provide aid, as you know, with our continued flow.”
Regional Updates
School, kindergarten, medical college & сhildren's art center were the targets of 3 Russian missiles and multiple artillery attacks in Donetsk Oblast last day, Oblast head informed. https://t.co/PjRsAsAMU2 pic.twitter.com/lUA0reIrC6
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) July 17, 2022
In the Donetsk Oblast, the Russian military attempted to establish control over the territory of the Vyhlehirska thermal power station but the Ukrainian soldiers forced the enemy to retreat. Russians also launched a missile attack on Pokrovsk, hitting civilians twice with an Iskander-M ballistic missile. At least 27 houses were damaged. There are dead and wounded, and the numbers of casualties are being specified.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1548351885664350214
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1548404588306264064
In the Luhansk Oblast, the Ukrainian military stopped the Russian army’s attempt to seize the highway between Lysychansk and Bakhmut. Russians have been trying to seize the strategically important road for more than two months but they still cannot control several kilometers of this road. The occupying forces continue to launch artillery strikes, as well as rocket and air strikes.
In the Kharkiv Oblast, as a result of a missile attack on Chuhuev, 3 killed. A school, a shop and several houses were also destroyed.
In the Cherkasy Oblast, a village was hit, no casualties reported, after Russians launched 6 X-101 (X-555) missiles at Ukraine from Tu-95 bombers from the Caspian Sea area. 4 were shot down by air defense.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1548332846690865158
In the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, 6 missiles were fired at Dnipro from Tu-95 MS bombers. Air defense forces shot down 4 enemy Kh-101 missiles over Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia. The school building, vocational schools, pharmacies, administrative and storage buildings, a bus, two cars, 12 five-story buildings, 13 private houses in Dnipro were damaged. Yuzhmash enterprise, a world-leading producer of rocket and space projects, was damaged. 3 people, 15 injured. The invaders spent about $78 million on yesterday’s missile attack on the Dnipro. The launch of one X-101 rocket costs about $13 million. Russians also fired 53 rockets from Grads at Nikopol, 2 killed.
In the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, a convoy of Russian military equipment up to 100 units drove towards Zaporizhzhia through Mariupol. It consisted mainly of BMD-4s and armored personnel carriers. In addition, a large number of Russian soldiers brought by KAMAZ trucks were settled in the villages of Nikolsky and Mangushsky districts bordering on the Zaporizhzhia region.
In the Mykolaiv Oblast, incessant air strikes and artillery fire continue.
#Russia threatens deportation from #Kherson & #Zaporizhzhia oblasts for pro-#Ukraine views and for ‘discrediting’ the invaders #StandWithUkraine #RussiaWarCrimes #StopRussia https://t.co/iBQV6Ea7iw pic.twitter.com/YGTZ28jMFN
— Halya Coynash (@halyapuff) July 16, 2022
In the Kherson Oblast, Ukrainian forces are advancing.
In the Odesa Oblast, Russians launched a missile strike from the Tu-95. A missile hit a warehouse of a manufacturing and trading company, a fire broke out with an approximate area of 1000 m2.
According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours):
- Russia is reinforcing its defensive positions across the occupied areas of the South of Ukraine. This includes the movement of manpower, equipment and defensive stores between Mariupol and Zaporizhzhia, and in Kherson. Russian forces in Melitopol are also increasing security measures.
- Ukrainian forces have been applying pressure on the Russian defensive line in Kherson Oblast for over a month now, and recent political statements from both Zelenskky and the Deputy Prime Minister have warned of forthcoming offense operations to force Russia out of the areas it currently controls. Russian defensive moves are likely a response to anticipated Ukrainian offensives, to demands made by Defence Minister Shoygu on a recent visit to the Donbas, and also to the attacks Ukraine is launching against command posts, logistic nodes and troop concentrations. Given the pressures on Russian manpower, the reinforcement of the South whilst the fight for the Donbas continues likely indicates the seriousness with which Russian commanders view the threat.
Losses of the Russian army
As of 16 July, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:
https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1548225061869326336
Humanitarian
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1548412908975128576
️️Environmental
Legal
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1548486141086679040
Ukraine calls to brand Russia a terrorist state after missile strike kills 21 in Vinnytsia
Support
7th sanctions package in preparation. Who cares? #EU has now sent exponentially more money to #Russia in oil, gas and coal purchases than it has sent #Ukraine in aid. Oil prices are up. Ruble is even stronger. Some are still concerned about ‘provocative’ restrictions. Lamentable.
— Linas Linkevicius (@LinkeviciusL) July 16, 2022
The EU is preparing a “golden package” of sanctions against Russia. The 7th package of sanctions, in addition to a ban on gold imports, will impose personal sanctions on individuals close to Putin. Their assets will be frozen.
New Developments
Russia is trying to trace routes by which Ukraine receives weapons from Europe — Intelligence Service
For this, it recruits ppl connected to weapons transportation, pro-Russian. However, Europeans report such proposals to the police – https://t.co/h2MzfAWMK2 pic.twitter.com/B4ATPqefpB
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) July 17, 2022
The special services of the Russian Federation stepped up their activities in the countries of Eastern Europe. In order to determine the delivery schemes and the number of weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian military attaches in the EU countries received an order to recruit police officers and citizens involved in the transportation of weapons, intelligence reports.
Assessment
- On the war.
The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of Saturday 15 July, 2022:
The Russian Defense Ministry announced that the Russian operational pause has concluded on July 16, confirming ISW’s July 15 assessment.[1] Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu ordered Southern Group Commander General of the Army Sergey Surovikin and Central Group Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin to increase offensive operations on all axes on July 16, but the tempo of the resuming Russian offensive will likely fluctuate or stutter over the coming days.[2] Russian forces conducted fewer ground assaults on all axes on July 16 than on July 15, but maintained increased artillery and missile strikes on July 16.[3]
Shoigu indicated that Surovikin and Lapin will both continue to command forces on the Eastern Axis even though a force concentration and effort of this size should only require a single, very senior overall commander. Surovikin should in principle be in overall command because he outranks Lapin. Shoigu has not even named Surovikin as the head of Russia’s Southern Military District (SMD) despite the likely ousting of SMD Commander General of the Army Alexander Dvornikov and despite Surovikin’s experience commanding the Southern Grouping in Ukraine. Lapin, in contrast, has been and remains commander of the Central Military District.[4] The Kremlin‘s failure to use the operational pause to reorganize the Russian military command structure in Ukraine and its decision to instead retain an ad-hoc command structure is very odd. The apparent dual command of two very senior generals over operations in a very small area may hinder Russian operations going forward.
Ukrainian HIMARS strikes against Russian ammunition depots, logistics elements, and command and control are likely degrading Russian artillery campaigns. Ukrainian officials confirmed that American-supplied HIMARS arrived in Ukraine on June 23.[5] Ukrainian operators have been using the HIMARS to strike multiple Russian targets – notably ammunition depots – since June 25.[6] The destruction of these ammunition depots has likely degraded Russian forces’ ability to sustain high volumes of artillery fire along front lines. Detected heat anomalies from NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) remotely sensed data decreased significantly in Donbas starting around July 10.
Ukraine’s destruction of Russian ammunition depots using HIMARS is likely one of several factors that reduced the quantity of observed heat anomalies in Donbas between July 10-15. The reduced number of observed heat anomalies also corresponds in part to the assessed Russian operational pause from July 6 – July 15.[7] The number of observed heat anomalies began increasing on July 15 – the day ISW assessed that Russian forces began emerging from their operational pause.[8] The intensity of Russian artillery attacks along the Sloviansk-Bakhmut axis in the coming days may clarify the degree to which the reduction in intensity was due to the operational pause or the result of Ukrainian attacks.
Key Takeaways
- The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the cessation of the operational pause, confirming ISW’s July 15 assessment that Russian forces are likely resuming ground attacks along multiple axes of advance. The cessation of the operational pause is unlikely to lead to a massive increase in ground attacks across Ukraine but will rather likely be characterized by continued limited ground assaults focused on the Sloviansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.
- The Kremlin may have ordered Russian forces to take control of the entirety of Kharkiv Oblast, despite the extraordinary low likelihood of Russian success in such an effort.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults around Siversk and Bakhmut and otherwise fired on Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure across Eastern Ukraine.
- Russian occupation authorities likely are responding to the perceived threat of Ukrainian partisan activities by strengthening administrative regimes in occupied areas.