Russo-Ukrainian war, day 37: Russian forces partially retreat yet still hold on to territory in Kyiv, Chernihiv oblasts; oil depots destroyed in Belgorod

[[There is a threat of Russian use of missiles against the defence-industrial complex and logistical infrastructure of Ukraine. Additional units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation are being relocated to Ukraine to conduct hostilities. At the same time, some military units of the Russian enemy have already exhausted the possibilities of forming reserves.]]

[The Russian forces, having suffered significant losses in personnel and equipment, did not succeed in blocking and capturing the city of Kyiv. The occupiers were forced to temporarily abandon this task.]

[In the Volyn direction it is without changes. Russia brought up to 5 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) to the territory of the Republic of Belarus.]

• [[According to the information received, on March 29, 200 mercenaries were transferred to the Gomel military airfield. In addition, Russia continues to transfer missile units to the Republic of Belarus to increase the intensity of ballistic missile attacks on settlements and infrastructure in Ukraine. Thus, in the Gomel region, three Iskander missile systems and two S-300 air defence systems were detected to cover them.]]
• [[The Russian enemy is taking measures to regroup and form groups of the armed forces of the Russian Federation to conduct an offensive in the Eastern Operational Zone. The transfer of part of the enemy’s troops and equipment from the territory of the Republic of Belarus to the territory of the Russian Federation by rail was recorded.]]

The units of the Russian occupation forces continue to partially withdraw from the north of Kyiv oblast towards the state border with the Republic of Belarus. It is noted the movement of joint columns of equipment of different quantities of Russian enemy. The convoys also include civilian vehicles (trucks, buses, minibuses, cars) that were stolen by Russian invaders during the temporary occupation of the territories. In addition, the enemy carries out the removal of looted property.

Russian forces around Kyiv are retreating en masse, leaving behind wrecked armour and possibly trapped pockets of troops as the Ukrainian army advances.

This map shows settlements confirmed recaptured today (blue) and yesterday (yellow).

The siege of Chernihiv is also lifted. pic.twitter.com/eINXgPpyJr

— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) April 1, 2022

[In the Polissya direction, the Russian forces are regrouping troops.]

• [[In the Polissya direction, the enemy’s main efforts are focused on withdrawing units from the territory of Ukraine, restoring their combat capability and, probably, transferring them to other directions. In particular, the enemy is moving units of the 35th, 36th All-Military Armies and the 76th Airborne Assault Division of the Airborne Troops from the Polissya Operational District.]]
• [[To ensure the withdrawal of troops, the occupiers are conducting artillery fire on the positions of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and carrying out remote mining of the area by means prohibited by international conventions. Due to the critical situation, the withdrawal of units of the 35th All-Military Army is personally organized by the commander of the army, Lieutenant General Oleksandr Sanchyk.]]

[[In the Brovary direction, the enemy continues to withdraw units, probably to the border areas with the Russian federation.]]

• [[Some units remain at positions and checkpoints along the transport corridors and on the approaches to temporarily occupied settlements, mines areas and civilian objects.]]

[In the Siversky direction, the occupiers are withdrawing part of the troops under the cover of individual units of the 1st Tank Army.]

• [[In the Siversky direction, the Russian enemy operates with the help of separate units of the 2nd, 41st All-Military Army and 90th Tank Division of the Central Military District.]]
• [[The Russian occupiers continue to block and carry out artillery shelling of Chernihiv. They are fixed on the occupied frontiers and regroup. The Russian enemy uses UAVs to conduct reconnaissance and adjust artillery fire.]]

[In the Slobozhansky direction, the Russian forces continue to blockade the city of Kharkiv, launching artillery shelling to destroy the city’s infrastructure and residential areas. In the area south of the city of Izium, the Russian forces are trying to break the resistance of Ukrainian defenders, expel units of the Defence Forces from their positions and continue the offensive in the direction of Sloviansk. It is not successful.]

• [The Russian forces continue to fire, which is scattered in the area of ​​the settlements of Izium, Kamianka, and Tykhotske, in order to prepare its further advance in the directions of the settlements of Sloviansk and Barvinkove.]
• [[Russian occupying forces are trying to create a new group of troops in the Slobozhansky direction in order to establish control over parts of the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions, including the blockade of the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.]]
• [[The Russian enemy continues to attack the city of Popasna, presumably in order to divert the attention of Ukraine’s military leadership from attempts to establish control over Izium and Mariupol.]]

[The Russian forces did not conduct active offensive operations in the Donetsk direction. The forces focused on continuing the assault on the city of Mariupol. It expanded the grouping of the 58th All-Military Army by introducing the BTGr, which was made up of servicemen transferred from the 7th Military Base (Abkhazia).]

• [Attempts by the Russian forces to bypass the positions of our troops in the areas of Popasna and Novotoshkivske were repulsed.]
• [The forces of the 36th Independent Marines Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, together with units of other components of the Defence Forces of Ukraine, maintain the circular defence of the Hero city of Mariupol.]
• [The forces’ offensive in the area of ​​Marinka was repulsed.]
• [The Russian enemy intensified airstrikes with the use of operational and tactical aircraft on troops and facilities in the areas of the settlements of Lysychansk, Rubizhne, Popasna, and Kreminna. It tried to bypass our units but was unsuccessful. It strengthens the group in the Donetsk direction. The arrival of railway echelons with weapons and equipment at the Rovenky railway station was noted.]]
• The Joint Forces of Ukraine repulsed 7 enemy attacks in the Donetsk and Luhansk directions during the day. Ukrainian warriors destroyed 3 tanks, 2 armoured personnel carriers, 2 units of motor vehicles and 2 artillery systems. An Orlan-10 UAV was also shot down.

[[In the Tavriya direction, near Nova Kakhovka, the enemy deployed a logistics base and does not take active action.]] The Russian forces tried to carry out offensive actions in the direction of the settlement of Alexandrovka in the Mykolayiv area.]

[The Russian forces continue to strengthen groups of troops at the expense of units of the Eastern Military District. It is trying to form occupation administrations within the temporarily occupied districts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts.]

[In view of the above, the Russian forces are likely to try to maintain a military presence in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine in the near future.]

[[Leaving military equipment on the territory of Ukraine, the occupiers are increasingly resorting to its mining. In addition, the use of mine traps by the enemy has become more frequent.]]

[The Defensive Forces of Ukraine continues to conduct a defence operation in the Eastern, Southeastern and Northeastern directions. Stabilization operations are being carried out in other areas, and territorial defence tasks are being carried out.]

[Ukraine’s Defence Forces continue to successfully carry out their tasks, pursue the retreating forces, break through the Russian occupiers’ defensive positions and gradually liberate Ukrainian lands.]

Ukraine’s Defence Forces continue to successfully carry out their tasks, pursue the retreating enemy, break through the occupiers’ defensive positions and gradually liberate Ukrainian lands.”

Russian efforts to redeploy damaged units from the Kyiv and Sumy axes to eastern Ukraine are unlikely to enable Russian forces to conduct major gains. Russia continued to withdraw elements of the 35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies and 76 Air Assault Division from their positions northwest of Kyiv into Belarus for refit and likely further redeployment to eastern Ukraine. However, these units are likely heavily damaged and demoralized. Feeding damaged Eastern Military District units directly into operations in eastern Ukraine—predominantly conducted by the Southern Military District—will likely prove ineffective and additionally introduce further command-and-control challenges for the Russian military. Russian forces will likely attempt to retain their current front lines around Kyiv and in northeastern Ukraine and will continue to dig in on these fronts; ISW has not seen any indicators of Russian forces fully relinquishing captured territory. However, Ukrainian counterattacks are likely disrupting Russian efforts to redeploy and refit their forces and will continue in the coming days.

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces successfully conducted local counterattacks around Kyiv, towards Sumy, and in Kherson Oblast and will likely take further territory—particularly northwest and east of Kyiv—in the coming days.
• Russia is withdrawing elements of its damaged forces around Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy for redeployment to eastern Ukraine, but these units are unlikely to provide a decisive shift in Russian combat power.
• Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian assaults throughout Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, and Russian forces failed to take territory in the past 24 hours.
• Russian forces continue to steadily advance in Mariupol.
• Russia’s preplanned spring draft will begin on April 1 and does not appear abnormal from Russia’s typical conscription cycle. Newly drafted conscripts will not provide Russia with additional combat power for many months.
• The Kremlin is likely accelerating efforts to establish quasi-state entities to govern occupied Ukrainian territory.” 

“But in many ways, Putin has already lost. Far from being the far-sighted manipulator of events that he would have us believe, Putin has damaged himself through a series of catastrophic misjudgments.”

US and European officials said on Wednesday that Mr Putin had been misled by advisers who were too scared to tell him how poorly the conflict was going or how badly Western sanctions had hit Russia. […]

He told an event hosted by the Institute for Government think tank: “And lastly, he has failed to anticipate the unity and cohesion that exists among the free nations of the world, here in Europe and obviously far beyond.

“His actions to date have done more to galvanise than divide and have shown Ukraine to have the one thing Russia conspicuously lacks – real friends. […]

Admiral Radakin said Mr Putin’s ambitions to take Ukraine swiftly had fallen apart and that there were early indications that Russian forces were retreating, making the military open to attack from Ukrainian defenders.

He added: “It looks now that less emphasis is being placed on Kyiv and more emphasis is being placed on the east and the south.

“We are starting to see the early indications of those forces being moved back from Kyiv and retreating to both Russia and Belarus.

“That in itself is a difficult evolution for Russia because they are doing that under contact, so Ukraine armed forces will attack those Russian forces as they retreat.”

However, his analysis differs from that of NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, who warned on Thursday that Russian forces were not withdrawing but regrouping.

Admiral Radakin branded the decision by the military not to tell members of its armed forces that they would be invading Ukraine “insane”. […]

At the same time, Oleksandr Gruzevich, the deputy chief of staff of Ukraine’s ground forces said Russian forces around Kyiv had lost their offensive capacity and were changing tactics to favour long-range attacks more than direct fighting”.

By the end of March, a month into Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s military leadership finally resigned themselves to the fact that Kyiv couldn’t “be taken with little bloodshed.” That is, Russia couldn’t take the Ukrainian capital with the forces already involved in its so-called “special military operation.” This was reported to Meduza by three sources close to Vladimir Putin’s Executive Office (the Presidential Administration or AP) and two sources close to the Russian government.

According to Meduza’s sources, during the early days of the invasion, both the Russian military and President Putin himself believed the “special operation” would be a fairly easy task — they did not expect so much resistance from the Ukrainian side. […]

By early March, however, Meduza’s official sources had started to change their tune. Now, they believe Russia bringing just the Donbas under its full control is the most “likely scenario.” 

No less than five of Meduza’s sources attributed the softening of Russia’s positions in the peace talks with Kyiv to the military’s failures at the front. After the Russian and Ukrainian delegations met in Istanbul on March 29, the Russian Defense Ministry’s spokesman, Colonel General Alexander Fomin, announced that Russian forces would “drastically reduce military activity in the directions of Kyiv and Chernihiv.” [which has not yet materialised] In turn, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu declared the “liberation of the Donbas” the “main goal” of Russia’s military operations [which is aligned with the assessments of the Ukrainian General Staff, and supported by the movement of troops].

Moreover, Meduza’s sources claim that in late March, government officials showed Putin their calculations about the state of the Russian economy. According to these documents, one source said, “the country will not be able to live even remotely normally under such sanctions.”

“There are [government] meetings going on in various sectors with approximately the same content: we can hold out on old reserves for several months. What will happen after, if at least some of the sanctions aren’t lifted, isn’t clear to anyone. Rather, it’s clear that everything will be very bad. Infrastructure problems will begin, and problems with transport,” explained a Meduza source close to the Cabinet of Ministers. 

Three sources close to the Presidential Administration all underscored that Putin has yet to make a final decision on what to do next. 

According to one of these people, the president is currently “influenced by different groups and people.” And he himself “would like to see a semblance of public discussion” about the war in Ukraine. This desire for “public discussion” implies that Putin is ready to hear out those who insist on peace with Ukraine, as well as those who call for the continuation of a full-scale war. […]

… officials in the Presidential Administration now fear that a “possible truce with Ukraine will impact Putin’s ratings.” “The citizenry has been overheated by the propaganda. Let’s say a decision is made to stop at the territory of the Donbas. What about the ‘Nazis’? Are we no longer fighting against them? This word has been hammered into people so much that I can’t imagine how we can stop at the Donbas without losing the authorities’ ratings,” said a spin doctor working with the Kremlin. 

A Meduza source close to the AP foresaw problems stemming from another propaganda line — the swift “capture of Kyiv” and holding a “parade on Khreshchatyk” (the city’s main street). “And what do you say after that? That we changed our minds about taking Kyiv? Why? Yes, there aren’t so many real, staunch supporters of war to the very end, but this is a very vocal part of society, it’s already begun to make noise [after the negotiations in Istanbul],” he explained, pointing to the many comments from outraged “patriots” after the announcement about scaling back the assault on Kyiv. 

As Meduza reported previously, since mid-March, Putin’s administration has been using sociological surveys to determine how the population really feels about the war and which problems concern Russians most. A Meduza source familiar with the AP’s findings said that Putin’s ratings have actually gone up against the backdrop of the “special military operation.” […]

Nevertheless, what will happen next remains unclear. And whether the possibility of “abandoning” the plan to take Kyiv will provoke opposition from the pro-Kremlin electorate is unclear, as well.

“Among the [supporters of the war] are ‘armchair patriots’ who say they support it but won’t take to the streets for the continuation of hostilities. Women 40+ make up another portion of the core support for the ‘operation.’ They support it, but when asked the question: ‘Are you prepared to send a member of your family to fight?’ they immediately declare that they aren’t prepared to do so,” said Meduza’s source, referencing the results of the Kremlin’s opinion polls. The source added that most often, Russians cite the “threat from the West” as the reason they support the war — echoing “what they’re told on TV.” 

Against this backdrop, the AP held a meeting to discuss strategies for explaining possible peace talks with Ukraine to the Russian population, Meduza’s sources said. Allegedly, no “effective strategies” came out of this meeting. “So much coal has been thrown into the locomotive’s furnace, it won’t be possible to stop it right away,” one political strategist said at the meeting, according to Meduza’s information. The way the AP sees it, the difficulty lies in the fact that some Russian propagandists are openly demanding that the war continue […].”

Two Meduza sources close to the AP stressed that the disappointment among the “patriotic public” may be very great […] Accordingly, the domestic political bloc is already preparing for an inevitable drop in the authorities’ ratings after the end of the war and amid the worsening economic crisis. Especially in Russia’s largest cities — namely, in Moscow and Saint Petersburg. According to the results of the AP’s classified polls, no more than half of the residents of these cities currently support the war. 

According to Meduza’s sources, political strategists close to the authorities have already been tasked with dreaming up a “new ideology for the country” and “some new national idea.” As one source put it: “There will be peace in some form anyway, and people will ask questions: what was this for? Kyiv hasn’t been taken, the majority of the sanctions haven’t been lifted, living under them [sanctions] is bad. Why put up with all this? This void needs to be filled so that it won’t be filled by someone else.”