In an interview with Le Temps, Sviatlana Tsikhanoŭskaya says that at present, the Belarusian opposition has “lost the streets” and cannot withstand the force being used by the regime of Alyaksandr Lukashenka but will recover its position in the spring.
[boxright]“I must acknowledge that we have lost the streets,” the Belarusian opposition leader says. “We do not have any chance to struggle with the force being used by the regime against the protesters. They have arms and force and at present it seems that we have lost. I know that Belarusians are tired and afraid.”
[/boxright]How Alyaksandr Lukashenka stole the Belarus presidential election
Now, Tsikhanoŭskaya says, “the opposition is preparing itself for the future struggle. We are working to connect various opposition initiatives which have arisen” so that we will be able to subject the regime “to constant pressure” even though for the present people are not going into the streets sometime this spring.
Asked to compare the movement in Belarus with the one in Russia led by Aleksey Navalny, the Belarusian leader says that they are fundamentally different. “In Russia, these are meetings against corruption … In our country, we want free elections.” Russia has not reached the same “point of nonreturn.”
In fact, she points out, “in Russia demonstrations are taking place but in Belarus, there is a revolution.” Revolutions, especially those in pursuit of democracy, take longer but also have deeper roots.
Despite Tsikhanoŭskaya’s brave words, many analysts have concluded that the suspension of mass protests, even though some continue both inside Belarus and outside, means a victory of Lukashenka and will give him greater freedom of action in his negotiations with Vladimir Putin.
Andrey Rezchikov of Moscow’s Vzglyad newspaper surveys the views of some Moscow analysts. Minsk political scientist says Tsikhanoŭskaya’s failure to achieve change with large protests means that she is unlikely to do so now that they have ebbed, whatever she predicts about the future.
He does not exclude the protests may resume, but they almost certainly will do so under new leadership.
Vladimir Zharikhin of the Institute of CIS Countries says that Tichanoŭskaya has “not passed the test of the streets” and thus is losing her role as leader of the opposition. But Kirill Koktysh of MGIMO says that the demonstrations have failed and are unlikely to be renewed anytime soon under some new leader.
Read more:
- Strategic thinking and a fight for Belarusian democracy
- Former Berkut riot police from Ukraine now dispersing anti-Lukashenka protests in Belarus
- The lessons of Euromaidan: why the Belarusian revolution is at a stalemate
- Why don’t Belarus protesters shun Russia?
- Three months of Belarusian gridlock: do the protesters have a chance?
- Collective ‘network’ action is why protests in Khabarovsk and Belarus are lasting so long, sociologist suggests
- Lukashenka’s crackdown on protesters is increasingly brutal, over 1000 detained this Sunday (October 2020)
- Hybrid War in Ukraine and Belarus: same thing and potentially smae disastrous outcome
- The world’s first Telegram revolution: how social media fuel protests in Belarus
- Belarusian government reckons with two months of protests
- Why are protesters in Belarus using the white-red-white flag
- Lukashenka jails and expells all opposition leaders but Belarus protests show no sign of decline (September 2020)
- How Alyaksandr Lukashenka stole the Belarus presidential elections
- What you need to know about the unprecedented Belarus presidential election, in a nutshell (August 2020)
