ISW: Russian military recruitment surpasses targets due to financial incentives and prison recruitment
Western aid could deepen Russia’s economic and military strain, pushing Putin toward meaningful negotiations in 2025, ISW says.
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force generation
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North Korea provides 50% of Russia’s ammunition, says Ukraine’s spymaster
Moscow struggles with recruitment, cutting its military target by 100,000 as it increasingly depends on Pyongyang’s military supplies, Budanov stated.
ISW: Estonia warns of Russia’s military buildup beyond war in Ukraine
ISW says Estonia's report aligns with its assessments of Russia's ongoing military and societal preparations for a future war with NATO "in the medium to long term."
ISW: Russia expands military forces, signaling no interest in peace talks with Ukraine
Russia's military expansion continues with new divisions, deeper ties with North Korea, and expanded defense production, suggesting no interest in peace.
Ukraine faces pressure from US to lower military draft age
Current and incoming US administrations want Ukraine to lower the draft age to 18, a policy that would endanger the future demography situation.
Ukrainian intel: Up to 180,000 Russian prisoners recruited for war in Ukraine
Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence says Russian government eliminates signing bonuses for prison recruits joining Moscow's war in Ukraine amid the economic strain.
ISW: Kremlin prioritizes force generation over economic concerns for 2025
Putin's decree mandates illegal migrants in Russia pass health, language, and legal tests or join the military by 30 April 2025.
ISW: Russian army recruitment barely matches daily casualty rates
Russian Defense Minister Belousov claims 427,000 new recruits while actual casualties exceed daily recruitment numbers, challenging sustainability.
ISW: Russians resume offensive to capture Donetsk Oblast’s Pokrovsk from south
Russian forces focus on advancing through Novotroitske and Shevchenko to cut major highways and force Ukrainian withdrawal from the city.
US urges Ukraine to lower conscription age to 18 while Ukraine faces weapon shortages amid Western arms delays
Media reports the US recommends Ukraine lower conscription age to tackle mobilization challenges and improve the force generation.
Russia repurposes nuclear forces personnel as infantry amid manpower shortages
A Russian infantry regiment formed from Strategic Missile Forces personnel is now fighting in Kursk Oblast.
India secures release of 85 citizens from Russian Army, 20 still await discharge
India announced the release of its nationals allegedly deceptively recruited into Russia's army, with ongoing efforts for the discharge of 20 more.
ISW: Russia’s ability to sustain prolonged offensive operations in question
Russia faces medium to long-term constraints in force generation and military-industrial production, undermining Russia's ability to overwhelm Ukraine through attrition.
ISW: Kremlin plans to fund crypto-mobilization efforts through 2027
Russia plans to allocate almost $1 billion for military contract payments from 2025 to 2027, indicating a continued reliance on crypto-mobilization for Ukraine war manpower.
UK intel: Russia to continue forcing conscripts into post-service contracts to fight in Ukraine amid high attrition
Russia’s conscription cycle begins on 1 October, with the use of conscripts in war zones remaining a sensitive issue for the Kremlin.
ISW: Russia centralizes volunteer recruitment amid manpower struggles for Ukraine war
Russia forms a commission to centralize volunteer recruitment, signaling manpower struggles for the Ukraine war and Putin's reluctance toward further mobilization, per ISW.
Putin’s fear of societal backlash prevents new mobilization wave, ISW says
ISW reports Russia unlikely to mobilize in near term due to Putin's concerns about regime stability. Despite Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and military needs, Putin favors volunteer recruitment over mobilization, fearing societal backlash.
ISW: Russia aims for victory over Ukraine by 2026 amid growing economic challenges
Russia has economic and force generation constraints, increasingly relying on foreign military supplies, possibly considering mobilization if current efforts fail to meet operational requirements, per ISW.
Despite force generation issues, Russia could still pose serious threat to Ukraine in the future – ISW
A senior Ukrainian official warned that Russia can reconstitute itself as a serious threat to Ukraine in the…
