Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence says Russian government eliminates signing bonuses for prison recruits joining Moscow's war in Ukraine amid the economic strain.
Russia faces medium to long-term constraints in force generation and military-industrial production, undermining Russia's ability to overwhelm Ukraine through attrition.
Russia plans to allocate almost $1 billion for military contract payments from 2025 to 2027, indicating a continued reliance on crypto-mobilization for Ukraine war manpower.
Russia forms a commission to centralize volunteer recruitment, signaling manpower struggles for the Ukraine war and Putin's reluctance toward further mobilization, per ISW.
ISW reports Russia unlikely to mobilize in near term due to Putin's concerns about regime stability. Despite Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and military needs, Putin favors volunteer recruitment over mobilization, fearing societal backlash.
Russia has economic and force generation constraints, increasingly relying on foreign military supplies, possibly considering mobilization if current efforts fail to meet operational requirements, per ISW.