No former Soviet republic has been more worried than Ukraine about the consequences for itself of the election of Donald Trump as US president, given the his statements during the campaign about his admiration for Vladimir Putin, his willingness to lift sanctions against Moscow, and the possibility that he will recognize Crimea as part of Russia.
But Kyiv analyst Denis Popovych argues that despite such fears, there are many reasons to think that in the end Trump may turn out to be a friend of Ukraine and that at the very least fears of an American betrayal are “premature.”
Indeed, he argues, there are two reasons for believing that “Donald Trump may present Putin with a number of unwelcome surprises” as far as the Kremlin leader is concerned: the candidate’s own words and the three traditional positions of the Republican Party concerning national defense and Russia.
With regard to the first of these, Popovych says,
Thus, he points out, candidate Trump not only said that Putin hadn’t invaded Ukraine but that
With regard to the second, Popovych points to what he calls “three facts”:
- First of all, he says, “one of the chief ideological positions of the US Republican Party which nominated Trump for president is increasing spending on defense and national security and also a tough foreign policy.”
- Second, he continues, “it is extremely difficult to call the Republican friends of the Soviet Union and of the Russian Federation which arose on its ruins.” It was Ronald Reagan who helped bring down the USSR and his successor George H.W. Bush supervised its dismemberment.
- And third and most important, Popovych concludes, is the following: “Republicans have always spoken in support of Ukraine.” George W. Bush pushed for a membership action plan for Ukraine to eventually become a member of NATO, and in response to Russian aggression against it, Republicans like John McCain sharply criticized Obama for “insufficient attention to ‘the Ukrainian question” and urged that Washington supply Kyiv with lethal weapons.
Consequently, Popovych says, Ukrainians should not fear an American betrayal now or be so disappointed by Trump’s election. Instead, he says, they should feel exactly the opposite because the elections of Republicans to the presidency mean “a strengthening of the foreign expansion of the US, efforts to bring Ukraine in its orbit, and various stages of cooling in relations with Russia.”
“There is no reason to think that now will be different,” Popovych says.
Related:
- Trump’s energy and trade policies may hurt Russia more than Western sanctions do, Moscow analyst say
- Waking up in a new world
- How Kyiv can make Trumps victory become a chance for Ukraine
- Reaction in former Soviet space to Trump victory ranges from fears of a sellout to belief US policy won’t change
- Why we shouldn’t be afraid of Trump
