Donald Trump Caricature by DonkeyHotey
One can only wonder how, literally up to this very morning, nearly the whole world was confident Hillary Clinton would win the US presidential election, despite opinion poll displaying varying results and often approaching the margins of statistical error.
In fact, the gap between Trump and Clinton is just within this statistical error. Clinton’s defeat can hardly be called a defeat – she could have won this election. But the winner was Donald Trump.
This naturally raises concerns among those who hoped that the new President of the United States would be a predictable representative of the US political establishment and would continue Barack Obama’s course. However, the new President is a man that had presented himself as a destructor of the foundations, as a fighter against the system.
But the situation is paradoxical because, after he accedes to the post of President of the United States, Donald Trump will become part of the system that he wanted to destroy.
The USA is not an absolute monarchy. It is a country where the government is based on a complex system of checks and balances. And, of course, on the interaction between the President and Congress. Both Houses of Congress – and this is also the result of today’s election results – will contain a Republican majority.
If the US president wants to succeed – and such an ambitious man as Trump, of course, wants to succeed – he will have to cooperate effectively with Congress. With the Congress where the majority are members of his own party. And such a cooperation is a guarantee against any adventurism and emotional decisions.
However, the Congress will interact with not only Donald Trump but also with members of his administration, whom he will select from the same Republican camp. And all these people in positions of responsibility must also be approved by Congress. Thus, the US government will is not be headed by some eccentric businessman who decided to try himself in politics. The US government will be headed by the Republican administration. With all ensuing consequences.
I would not indiscriminately consider these effects to be negative. In any case, it was the Republican presidents that gave America the energy and rigidity making it a leader in the modern world during its newest history.
However, there is one holdback. Party affiliation is important, but Trump gave absolutely clear promises to the people who voted for him. He promised them to make America “great again” – that is to protect their work and return them their jobs. But how?
It’s very simple – by defending the American market with protectionism, trade barriers, and duties. This means slower economic growth, both in the country that is being protected and the countries from which it is protecting itself. First of all, this is the USA itself, and of course, China.
This isn’t very good for the world. Not very good for America, China, Russia. But for Ukraine, it’s not that bad. Because it would mean a further decline in oil prices. Another trigger reduction – Trump desire to promote American energy production, promote the achievement of “shale revolution” against the fears of environmentalists. Here they say that Trump has agreed with Putin. First, do not agree. And secondly, this decline in oil prices he did finish off.
And, of course, Trump’s victory means that people are more and more afraid of globalization and vote for decisions that are supposed to protect them from its effects. It’s no coincidence that Donald Trump’s victory is so often compared to Great Britain’s vote to withdraw from the EU – the new American President, by the way, was an active supporter of this decision. Now the world has to verify how effective this protection is and what the defenders are capable of after being granted with trust.
Donald Trump doesn’t know himself what kind of president he will be. But his election to the “highest office of the land” carries historical significance – now, people themselves will have a chance to verify how effective their faith in the possibility of turning back the clock actually is. By the way, Donald Trump may be the first one who will review the postulates of this faith.
Read also: Trump Revolution: From Russia With Revenge
- Waking up in a new world
- How Kyiv can make Trumps victory become a chance for Ukraine
- Reaction in former Soviet space to Trump victory ranges from fears of a sellout to belief US policy won’t change
- How a Trump victory would affect the economy of Ukraine
- “Putin is a Russian Trump” and other neglected Russian stories
- Trump Revolution: From Russia With Revenge
- Wondering how Trump could happen? Look to Russia