The Kremlin appears to be guiding actions in the Russian-backed breakaway republic of Transnistria, potentially laying the groundwork for a false-flag operation to destabilize Moldova, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.
The Transnistrian Ministry of State Security (MGB), considered a Russian FSB extension, released a statement on 10 January about an “incident” on 7 January involving two Transnistrians allegedly transferred to Ukraine, which is still being clarified.
This follows an interview on 9 January with Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky by Kremlin newswire TASS, where he accused Moldova of militarization and halting talks, highlighting Transnistria’s close ties with Russia. These actions by the MGB and Krasnoselsky seem to be coordinated efforts by the Kremlin to destabilize Moldova and rationalize potential Russian military actions in the region. The MGB’s 10 January press release is likely also part of such Kremlin efforts.
"Russia notably used similar justifications when it militarily intervened on behalf of separatist Transnistria in 1992," ISW notes.
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