ISW: Russia’s grand territorial ambitions are divorced from battlefield reality

Russia's "exaggerated territorial ambitions and aggressive territorial demands run completely counter to battlefield reality," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on 13 May. It can no longer forecast when Russia might seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast — or whether it can at all.

Kremlin doubles down on four oblasts as precondition for talks

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on 13 May restated Moscow's demand that Ukrainian forces withdraw from four oblasts before negotiations can resume. Russia illegally annexed Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts in 2022, but does not fully control any of them.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the same day that, despite recent US-Russia dialogue, "nothing is happening" in negotiations. Peskov's demanding the very Ukrainian land Russia has been unable to take by force.

Russian commanders briefed the Kremlin on Donbas by autumn

Senior Russian commanders pitched to Putin a full Donbas seizure by fall 2026, Financial Times reported on 13 May. The outlet cited anonymous sources close to Putin and a Ukrainian intelligence assessment.

Anonymous sources also told FT that Putin intends to add fresh territorial conditions to any future ceasefire deal. Putin's actual ambitions still stretch beyond Donbas, two back-channel negotiators told the same outlet. His wider goal is to push Russian control over everything east of the Dnipro and, if he can, into Kyiv and Ukraine's southern coast.

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Kremlin terms unchanged: Moscow repeats Putin’s 2024 demand for four Ukraine’s oblasts as peace push stalls

ISW noted that Putin's thinking has moved further and further from battlefield realities. The Kremlin likely issues orders to Russian commanders to make gains that the army cannot achieve.

The battlefield: 2.63 km² a day, six months stuck at Kostiantynivka

Russia's 2026 advance in Donetsk Oblast totals 349.89 km², ISW reported. That works out to 2.63 km² per day.

Russian troops first infiltrated Kostiantynivka, the southernmost city of Ukraine's fortress belt, in October 2025. Six months on, Russian forces have produced no meaningful battlefield progress there.

Ukrainian counterattacks since early 2026 have forced Russia to split its manpower between defending the south and pushing on the fortress belt. Heavy Ukrainian fortifications, the terrain itself, and a Ukrainian mid-range strike campaign have slowed Russian offensive movements theater-wide, ISW said.

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Russian advance is slowing — and ISW’s numbers prove the Kremlin’s demands on Donetsk have no basis on the battlefield

US President Donald Trump claimed on 13 May that he has no agreement with Putin on Russia gaining control over the entire Donbas. He made the statement in response to a journalist's question.