Ukraine’s Skelia Regiment says it pushed Russia out of Kostiantynivka — city Moscow claimed to have taken on 3 July
Ukraine's 425th Skelia Assault Regiment says it cleared Kostiantynivka and the city is under Ukrainian control.
Browsing Tag
fortress belt
23 posts
Kostiantynivka: Why one city in Donbas matters so much that Putin lies about having captured it
Putin declared the city “liberated” while Ukrainian troops still held it, a lie aimed at the negotiating table, not the battlefield
ISW: Russia gains ground in Kostiantynivka but Fortress Belt stays out of reach
Russia's strategy of stacking armies on one Donetsk Oblast city is producing slow infiltration, not the operational breakthrough Moscow needs to crack the fortified chain, ISW says.
ISW: Russia’s grand territorial ambitions are divorced from battlefield reality
The think tank noted that Russian forces first infiltrated Kostiantynivka in October 2025 and have made no significant tactical gains in six months, even as Peskov restated Moscow's withdrawal demand on four oblasts.
Moscow’s offensive has lost ground since it started — yet Russia’s top brass declared Luhansk Oblast fully seized for the fourth time
Gerasimov claimed Russia seized 1,700 km² in 2026 and controls 70% of Lyman, but ISW’s evidence shows gains of only about one fifth of that area, none of the city, and territorial losses since 1 March.
Russian advance is slowing — and ISW’s numbers prove the Kremlin’s demands on Donetsk have no basis on the battlefield
ISW found Russian forces seized 29% less territory in the six months to March 2026 than in the same period a year earlier, advancing at 10.66 km² per day versus 14.9 — a pace that makes Russia's two-month ultimatum on Donetsk Oblast a cognitive warfare tool, not a military reality.
Russia’s spring offensive has stalled at Ukraine’s Fortress Belt — ISW says it won’t break through in 2026
The 3rd Combined Arms Army, the only Russian force positioned to push directly on Sloviansk, hasn't gained ground in a week after a month of tactically significant advances east of the city.
ISW: Russia has likely begun its anticipated spring-summer 2026 offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast
ISW assessed on 21 March, adding that Russian forces are unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026 but will likely make some tactical gains at significant cost.
Reuters: US pushes Ukraine toward a March peace deal with Russia and unrealistic May elections
The Witkoff-Kushner negotiating team has pressed Kyiv to move fast, warning that Trump will have less political capital for a deal as congressional midterms approach, according to sources familiar with the talks.
US peacekeepers could monitor Donetsk ceasefire—but Russia demands Ukraine surrender cities first
Moscow insists Kyiv cede Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka before any deal.
ISW: Russia unlikely to rebuild battlefield losses and create strategic reserves at the same time
Only a fraction of Moscow’s planned new units were actually formed, and those divisions appear undermanned and under-equipped.
ISW: Russian milbloggers finally admit Ukraine’s gains in Kupiansk sector and accuse military of misleading the top leadership (MAPS)
Commanders are said to tailor reports to satisfy superiors, creating a self-destructive feedback loop.
ISW: Russia’s top general promises fast victory — but even his boasts prove the opposite
Belousov insists the Fortress Belt is key to a rapid takeover, yet even his own timeline suggests years of grinding warfare.
ISW: Russia’s army can’t sustain multi-pronged offensives due to manpower and equipment strain
A push toward Ukraine’s heavily fortified Fortress Belt would force Moscow to drain even more troops and equipment.
Putin claims Russia seized Pokrovsk — ISW finds no sign of that (MAP)
The think tank's latest assessment says there is no evidence confirming the complete Russian seizure of Pokrovsk.
ISW: Russia’s rate of advance “does not indicate that Russian forces will imminently seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast”
The Kremlin’s belief in inevitable victory ignores battlefield realities where major cities remain out of reach.
ISW: Russia overstates gains to pressure Kyiv and West to hand over Donetsk Oblast
Russian forces have not yet faced heavily fortified cities like Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, ISW notes.
ISW: Trump’s reported peace plan is “fundamentally the same as Russia’s 2022 Istanbul demands”
The proposed deal would give Russia vital Ukrainian territory and allow it to conserve resources for future aggression, according to ISW.
ISW: Russian forces try to apply Pokrovsk-style tactics in Siversk and Lyman against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt
The Kremlin is using a mix of weather-aided raids, artillery-coordinated drones, and forward infiltration near key defense axes.
So you think Ukraine can just leave Donbas? It’s the shield forged in steel — and paid in blood
The Donbas fortress belt has held for years against Russia’s army. Surrendering it would open the road west.