Russia paid with more than 46,000 casualties, and the front moved the other way, ISW finds
September ended with a net Russian territorial loss, the think tank says.
Browsing Tag
fortress belt
32 posts
They say Dobropillia is encircled, but they are actually 10+ km away: ISW publishes map disproving Russia’s claim
Russia is using this to divert attention from its setbacks north of Lyman, the think tank says.
Russia fabricates Dobropillia encirclement to strengthen its case for Kyiv’s capitulation at UN – ISW
Ukrainian officers describe active fighting around the Donetsk Oblast transport hub.
Russia grinds up the eastern approach to Sloviansk after its northeastern push stalled
Russian troops pushed to the edge of Pyskunivka and infiltrated Mykolaivka, the village that would give them a dry approach to the city.
Ukrainian intelligence units will not help: Analyst warns that once Russia breaks into Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, reinforcing them only delays inevitable
Russian forces are 12 to 13 km from Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and could begin infiltrating the fortress-belt cities by late 2026.
Take Lyman, then Sloviansk, then Kramatorsk: Russia’s plan is still stuck on step one, the Ukrainian military says
Russian commanders treat the town as the necessary launchpad, yet their infantry cannot hold ground inside it, according to the report.
ISW: First Pokrovsk, then Huliaipole—now Russia points its logistics-killing air campaign at the Fortress Belt
The 2025 version took months to set up advances, and this one is expected to move just as slowly.
ISW: Russia’s long push toward Sloviansk gains no ground as Ukraine counterattacks
Its assaults across northern Donetsk Oblast produced no confirmed advances in the newest DC-based think tank's war assessment, an offensive now grinding into its fifth month.
Russia is bombing Kostiantynivka to rubble while pushing its infantry into it on foot
Artillery and guided glide bombs hit the city as small Russian groups try to dig into whatever buildings they can reach.
Ukraine’s Skelia Regiment says it pushed Russia out of Kostiantynivka — city Moscow claimed to have taken on 3 July
Ukraine's 425th Skelia Assault Regiment says it cleared Kostiantynivka and the city is under Ukrainian control.
Kostiantynivka: Why one city in Donbas matters so much that Putin lies about having captured it
Putin declared the city “liberated” while Ukrainian troops still held it, a lie aimed at the negotiating table, not the battlefield
ISW: Russia gains ground in Kostiantynivka but Fortress Belt stays out of reach
Russia's strategy of stacking armies on one Donetsk Oblast city is producing slow infiltration, not the operational breakthrough Moscow needs to crack the fortified chain, ISW says.
ISW: Russia’s grand territorial ambitions are divorced from battlefield reality
The think tank noted that Russian forces first infiltrated Kostiantynivka in October 2025 and have made no significant tactical gains in six months, even as Peskov restated Moscow's withdrawal demand on four oblasts.
Moscow’s offensive has lost ground since it started — yet Russia’s top brass declared Luhansk Oblast fully seized for the fourth time
Gerasimov claimed Russia seized 1,700 km² in 2026 and controls 70% of Lyman, but ISW’s evidence shows gains of only about one fifth of that area, none of the city, and territorial losses since 1 March.
Russian advance is slowing — and ISW’s numbers prove the Kremlin’s demands on Donetsk have no basis on the battlefield
ISW found Russian forces seized 29% less territory in the six months to March 2026 than in the same period a year earlier, advancing at 10.66 km² per day versus 14.9 — a pace that makes Russia's two-month ultimatum on Donetsk Oblast a cognitive warfare tool, not a military reality.
Russia’s spring offensive has stalled at Ukraine’s Fortress Belt — ISW says it won’t break through in 2026
The 3rd Combined Arms Army, the only Russian force positioned to push directly on Sloviansk, hasn't gained ground in a week after a month of tactically significant advances east of the city.
ISW: Russia has likely begun its anticipated spring-summer 2026 offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast
ISW assessed on 21 March, adding that Russian forces are unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026 but will likely make some tactical gains at significant cost.
Reuters: US pushes Ukraine toward a March peace deal with Russia and unrealistic May elections
The Witkoff-Kushner negotiating team has pressed Kyiv to move fast, warning that Trump will have less political capital for a deal as congressional midterms approach, according to sources familiar with the talks.
US peacekeepers could monitor Donetsk ceasefire—but Russia demands Ukraine surrender cities first
Moscow insists Kyiv cede Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka before any deal.
ISW: Russia unlikely to rebuild battlefield losses and create strategic reserves at the same time
Only a fraction of Moscow’s planned new units were actually formed, and those divisions appear undermanned and under-equipped.