The think tank noted that Russian forces first infiltrated Kostiantynivka in October 2025 and have made no significant tactical gains in six months, even as Peskov restated Moscow's withdrawal demand on four oblasts.
Moscow's logic is internally consistent but strategically unacceptable: Ukrainian withdrawal would stop Russian casualties while giving Russia the foothold it needs for further occupation.
Kremlin media guidelines suggest Putin aims to exploit Trump’s presidency while pressuring the US to trade economic benefits for war-related concessions.