Russia is preparing for another energy strike on Europe amid restrictions on Kazakh oil exports to Germany. According to Reuters, Russia plans to halt oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the “Druzhba” pipeline starting 1 May.
Sources indicate that an updated supply schedule has already been sent to both Kazakhstan and Germany.
This is seen as a direct form of economic warfare that could escalate, leaving the EU with limited alternatives, according to the head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD), Andrii Kovalenko.
“Russia is interested in the destruction and fragmentation of the EU, and of Germany as Europe’s leading economy. It may also be an attempt by Russia to influence the pace of the EU’s militarization,” he said.
Disruption of strategic oil supplies raises fuel shock risks
The suspension of Kazakh flows would add further uncertainty to Germany’s fuel supply, at a time when the war in Iran is already disrupting energy supplies from the Middle East, only a few years after Berlin’s long-standing energy ties with Russia were broken by the war in Ukraine.
Kazakh oil exports to Germany via the Russian “Druzhba” pipeline amounted to 2.146 million metric tons in 2025, or around 43,000 barrels per day, up 44% from 2024, and 730,000 tons in the first quarter of 2026.
A full shutdown would remove around 12 million metric tons per year, which is approximately 17% of the oil processed by Germany’s PCK refinery, one of the country’s largest, located in Schwedt in northeastern Germany. Its fuel supplies power 9 out of 10 vehicles in the Berlin-Brandenburg region.
Russia hints that decision has not yet been made
Russia’s Energy Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said he was unaware of any plan to halt oil exports.
“We will try to verify this,” Peskov told journalists during his daily briefing.
Kazakhstan has been supplying oil to PCK via the northern branch of the Druzhba pipeline, which crosses Poland, since 2023.
