Russian forces are advancing in Donetsk Oblast, but the pace does not suggest they are close to seizing the rest of the territory, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). A US official told CBS on 23 November that Russian President Vladimir Putin believes he will take all of Donetsk “one way or another,” through talks or force.
This comes amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, as Russia continues to demand that Ukraine give up the rest of Donetsk Oblast. Recently, US President Trump resumed pressing Ukraine to accept Russia’s de facto capitulation demands, including the ceding of Donetsk Oblast.
Kremlin spreads inevitability claim amid slow advance
ISW reported on 24 November that the Kremlin is pushing the false narrative of an inevitable Russian victory to pressure Ukraine and the West into concessions. However, Russian troops are still advancing "at a foot pace," even after the past three months of relatively quicker progress on the battlefield.
The think tank noted that "Russia’s imminent seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not guaranteed":
"ISW continues to assess that the Russian effort to seize Donetsk Oblast will be a yearslong battle that would cost Russia significant amounts of manpower and matériel," the Institute wrote.
Fortress Belt still holds after years of Russian failures
The Institute for the Study of War said Russian forces have not shown the ability to seize “large population centers like those in the Fortress Belt,” which it described as “the backbone of Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk Oblast,” and noted they have tried and failed to capture the Fortress Belt itself since 2014.
