Analysis: Targeting strategy changed for Ukrainian air attacks inside Russia

Defense forces executed 66 successful strikes against Russian military bases, oil hubs and arms factories during a four-month air assault campaign.
analysis targeting strategy changed ukrainian air attacks inside russia 2024 through 2025 map-ukrainian-strickes-on-russia airstrikes russian territory have evolved significantly over past four months outlet texty collected analyzed strike data here’s
Ukrainian air attacks on Russia in October 2024 through January 2025. Infographic: Texty
Analysis: Targeting strategy changed for Ukrainian air attacks inside Russia

Ukrainian airstrikes on Russian territory have evolved significantly over the past four months. Ukrainian outlet Texty collected and analyzed strike data from October 2024 to January 2025. Their findings, supplemented by additional information from Euromaidan Press, reveal key developments and new targeting priorities.

Ukrainian forces have intensified their strikes on Russian military installations, industrial hubs, and energy infrastructure over the past four months. According to collected data, over the four months, Ukraine launched at least 66 successful attacks on strategic targets inside Russia.

Distilleries added to the mix

In October 2024, Ukrainian forces began striking Russian distilleries supplying alcohol to the defense industry. Within a month, five distilleries were hit in Belgorod, Voronezh, Tula, and Tambov. These facilities produce alcohol for aviation fuel and explosives. One of the most significant attacks was on the Biokhim plant in Russia’s Tambov Oblast, hit in late October 2024, supplies alcohol to Russian defense, aerospace, naval, and nuclear industries.

The alcohol is used in aviation fuel production, aircraft anti-icing systems, and explosive components manufacturing, Texty says.

Debut strikes on Caspian port

On 6 November 2024, Ukrainian drones targeted Dagestan’s Caspian port of Kaspiysk for the first time, located about 1,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The drones damaged at least two Russian Gepard-class frigates, the Tatarstan and Dagestan missile ships. The attack was carried out by the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR). Texty notes that Iran supplies weapons to Russia through this port.

A second attack on the Caspian port on 30 November forced Russian authorities to temporarily shut down the nearby Makhachkala airport.

Assaults on Russian military facilities intensify

Military installations became primary targets during this period, with half of the 66 successful strikes focusing on these facilities, according to Texty. Ukrainian forces targeted airfields, drone assembly bases, training facilities for soldiers and foreign mercenaries, command posts, protected bunkers, and ammunition depots.

Texty notes that previous strikes had been more dispersed, targeting infrastructure, radar sites, and energy-generating facilities, alongside purely military infrastructure. Since October, Ukraine has struck a Russian energy facility only once – on 23 January 2025, causing a major fire at Novo-Ryazanskaya thermoelectric power plant. Before September 2024, multiple regional power stations and substations were damaged.

Military industry under fire

Strikes on Russian military factories have also become more frequent over the past four months.

On 14 January 2025, the Armed Forces of Ukraine conducted an operation against the Bryansk Chemical Plant in Seltso. The facility produces explosives for various types of ammunition. The attack resulted in hours-long explosions and damaged Tor and Buk anti-aircraft systems, which were supposed to intercept drones, Texty wrote. The same day saw fires at multiple strategic facilities, including the Kristall plant in Engels, Kazanorgsintez plant in Tatarstan, and Saratov refinery.

Explosives factory targeted allegedly with ATACMS in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast

On 24 January, a fire broke out in Bryansk after a drone attack targeted the Kremny EL microelectronics plant, which produces components for Topol-M and Bulava ICBMs, S-300 and S-400 air defense systems, and combat aircraft electronics.

Other attacks targeted aircraft plants in Smolensk and Kazan, the Tambov gunpowder factory, and a weapon factory in Kaluga, to name a few.

Oil infrastructure attacks intensify

Oil industry attacks intensified between October 2024 and January 2025, comprising nearly half of all strikes, as per Texty. Drone strikes damaged at least 25 Russian oil industry facilities in January.

Previously, Ukrainian drones targeted mainly oil refineries and, less frequently, oil depots. In January 2025, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and Special Operations Forces (SSO) expanded their targeting to include major oil pumping hubs. On 29 January 2025, they struck the Andreapol station in Tver Oblast, a crucial component of the Baltic Pipeline System 2 that pumps oil to the Ust-Luga port. After sanctions on Russian oil, the port became a key export hub where Moscow’s shadow fleet is loaded.

Additionally, in late December, two transformers were destroyed at an oil pumping station of the Transneft-Druzhba pipeline in Bryansk Oblast.

The attacks triggered fires at oil depots in Oryol Oblast, Krasnodar Krai, Voronezh Oblast, Smolensk, and fuel storage facilities in Rostov Oblast, among others.

Two drone assaults a few days apart on Russia’s Engels 600 km from Ukraine’s borders triggered days-long fires at a fuel depot. The facility supplies fuel to the Engels-2 military airfield, a base for Russian strategic bombers, launching regular long-range missile attacks against Ukraine.

New drone attack hits oil depot in Russia’s Engels (video)

Within days, drone assaults struck an oil refinery in Nizhny Novgorod oblast more than 800 km from Ukraine, Russia’s fourth largest, and the third-largest Ryazan refinery. The latter suspended operations due to the damage. One of the attacks successfully targeted an oil refinery in Tatarstan, over 1,000 km from the Ukrainian northern border.

Texty says Russian oil refining declined to its lowest level in 12 years at 267 million tons, though the industry remains operational.

Gas infrastructure attacks

Among the new type of targets was a gas facility, the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant. The factory halted operations for at least several months after sustaining severe damage from a Ukrainian drone strike overnight on 3 February

Ukraine’s systematic strategy against Russian war logistics

According to Ukraine’s General Staff, strikes on Russian infrastructure aim to disrupt supply chains supporting Russian forces. Targets include military manufacturing plants, ammunition depots, fuel storage facilities, and command centers. Officials state that these operations will continue until Russian forces are unable to sustain combat operations in Ukraine.

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