The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that the Kremlin continues to insist on demands amounting to Ukraine’s complete capitulation, maintaining its hardline position unchanged since 2021.
These demands include the removal of Ukraine’s legitimate government and the country’s full demilitarization, which demonstrates the Kremlin’s unwillingness to negotiate under current conditions when Russia has the ability to continue fighting in the near future.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently outlined conditions for achieving a “just peace,” emphasizing that Ukraine cannot accept Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand to maintain only a minimal military force of 40,000-50,000 personnel – a condition first proposed during the Istanbul peace talks in spring 2022. Zelenskyy stressed that a strong Ukrainian military, Western security guarantees, and a clear perspective for NATO and EU membership are essential prerequisites for meaningful peace negotiations.
The ISW analysis highlights that Kremlin officials, including Putin, have deliberately misinterpreted Ukrainian law and constitution regarding elections under martial law. After Ukraine adhered to its legal framework by not holding elections during martial law in 2024, Russian officials have repeatedly used this to question Zelensky’s legitimacy as president.
According to Ukrainian law “On the legal regime of martial law,” passed in 2000, martial law can only be lifted when “the threat of attack or danger to state independence of Ukraine and its territorial integrity has been eliminated.” As Russia continues its attacks on Ukraine, the Ukrainian government legally cannot abolish martial law.
In related developments, Ukrainian officials are working to strengthen their defensive capabilities. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced plans to produce approximately 3,000 cruise missiles and “drone-missiles” and at least 30,000 long-range drones in 2025. The country is also developing the “Trembita” cruise missile, which has a 90-mile range and a 40-pound payload.
The ISW report also noted recent Russian military advances near Ukrainian towns of Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, and highlighted that Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported several Russian ships are scheduled to arrive at the Port of Tartus in Syria to evacuate Russian military assets to Libya.
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