Russian military forces are making significant territorial gains in Ukraine, moving at their most rapid pace since the initial stages of the invasion in 2022, multiple independent sources report.
According to the independent Russian news group Agentstvo, Russian troops have set “new weekly and monthly records for the size of the occupied territory in Ukraine.”
The analysis suggests that in the past week alone, the Russian army captured almost 235 square kilometers, which represents a weekly record for 2024.
Military analyst Pasi Paroinen from Finland’s Black Bird Group estimates that Russian forces have taken control of approximately 667 square kilometers this month, potentially including some delayed October gains.
The advances are mostly concentrated in the Donetsk Oblast, with Russian forces strategically pushing towards the towns of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove.
Russian war bloggers suggest that if Ukrainian defenses around Kurakhove are breached, Russian forces could potentially advance westward towards Zaporizhzhia while securing their rear.
Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, claimed on 26 November that Russia now holds “the complete strategic initiative on the battlefield.”
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also reported on 26 November that the Russian military’s territorial gains have shown a notable acceleration in recent months, though still significantly slower than the initial stages of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russian forces have captured 574 square kilometers since November 1, 2024, averaging approximately 22 square kilometers per day. This rate stands in stark contrast to the early months of the invasion, when Russian forces were gaining around 1,265 square kilometers daily in March 2022.
Ukrainian military officials acknowledge the current situation in the east as the most challenging this year. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attributes this to delays in equipping brigades, partly due to prolonged deliberations in the US Congress over military assistance packages.
The war is entering what some Russian and Western officials describe as potentially its most dangerous phase. This includes reports of North Korean troops potentially being involved and Ukraine using Western-supplied missiles to strike targets inside Russia.
Current territorial control shows Russia occupies 18% of Ukraine, including all of Crimea, over 80% of Donbas, and more than 70% of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts.
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