Copyright © 2024

The work of Euromaidan Press is supported by the International Renaissance Foundation

When referencing our materials, please include an active hyperlink to the Euromaidan Press material and a maximum 500-character extract of the story. To reprint anything longer, written permission must be acquired from [email protected].

Privacy and Cookie Policies.

ISW: Ukraine must seize initiative on battlefield to counter Russian advantages

Waiting until 2025 to launch a counteroffensive would cede the theater-wide initiative to Russia for over a year, allowing it to shape conditions, a new report warns.
Russians poised for street battles to seize Chasiv Yar, Robotyne at risk - Deep State Analysts
Ukrainian troops on the frontline. Photo: General Staff
ISW: Ukraine must seize initiative on battlefield to counter Russian advantages

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 5 May that Ukraine should contest the theater-wide initiative as soon as possible, as ceding it to Russia for the entirety of 2024 would present Russia with several benefits.

According to the Financial Times, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that Ukraine will look to conduct a counteroffensive operation to recapture Russian-occupied territory in 2025 after using US military assistance to blunt further Russian advances in 2024.

Sullivan said that US aid will not “instantly flip the switch” on the battlefield situation and expects Russian forces to continue making marginal advances for an unspecified time.

According to the ISW, a Ukrainian “active defense” into 2025 would cede the theater-wide initiative to Russian forces for over a year, allowing the Russian command to shape preferable conditions by determining the timing, location, and intensity of attacks, and controlling the resources Ukrainian forces expend over this protracted period.

A Russian milblogger also said that Russian forces can conduct glide bomb air strikes against Ukrainian positions for the remainder of 2024 if Ukraine does not launch a counteroffensive operation that pressures Russian forces this year.

The ISW assesses that tactically significant Russian advances northwest of Avdiivka and the potential threat of a Russian offensive operation against Kharkiv Oblast are directly linked to Russia’s control over the theater-wide initiative and its ability to indiscriminately conduct glide bomb strikes along the frontline, constrained and degraded Ukrainian defensive operations.

The ISw reported that Ukraine’s ability to liberate its territory and conduct counteroffensive operations rests on the decisions in the West, Russia, and Ukraine, and any external efforts to impose a timeline on Ukrainian counteroffensive operations ignore the reality of the battlefield situation.

Other takeaways from the report:

  • The Russian military reportedly redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast as part of a larger ongoing Russian effort to gather an operationally significant force for a possible future Russian offensive operation against northeastern Ukraine and Kharkiv City.
  • The Russian military is reportedly preparing and forming the Northern Grouping of Forces from elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) to primarily operate in the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction.
  • European intelligence agencies reportedly warned their governments that Russia is planning to conduct “violent acts of sabotage” across Europe as part of a “more aggressive and concerted effort” against the West.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk and Robotyne.

Read also:

You could close this page. Or you could join our community and help us produce more materials like this.  We keep our reporting open and accessible to everyone because we believe in the power of free information. This is why our small, cost-effective team depends on the support of readers like you to bring deliver timely news, quality analysis, and on-the-ground reports about Russia's war against Ukraine and Ukraine's struggle to build a democratic society. A little bit goes a long way: for as little as the cost of one cup of coffee a month, you can help build bridges between Ukraine and the rest of the world, plus become a co-creator and vote for topics we should cover next. Become a patron or see other ways to support. Become a Patron!

To suggest a correction or clarification, write to us here

You can also highlight the text and press Ctrl + Enter

Please leave your suggestions or corrections here

    Euromaidan Press

    We are an independent media outlet that relies solely on advertising revenue to sustain itself. We do not endorse or promote any products or services for financial gain. Therefore, we kindly ask for your support by disabling your ad blocker. Your assistance helps us continue providing quality content. Thank you!

    Related Posts