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ISW: Russian troops make no gains around Avdiivka, may focus shifts to Chasiv Yar

Russian forces did not advance in the Avdiivka area on April 30, a possible sign they are regrouping for a new offensive thrust towards Chasiv Yar.
Chasiv Yar 30 April
Assessed control of terrain around Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast as of 30 April. Credit: ISW
ISW: Russian troops make no gains around Avdiivka, may focus shifts to Chasiv Yar

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances in the Avdiivka area on 30 April, while Ukrainian sources stated they repelled a higher number of Russian attacks in the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar direction than near Avdiivka.

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Ukrainian forces repelled 47 Russian attacks near Avdiivka and 57 Russian attacks around Bakhmut throughout the day.

According to the ISW, Russian forces may be slowing down the rate of attacks around Avdiivka while re-committing to offensive pushes around Chasiv Yar.”

Chasiv Yar is an operationally significant objective as it would provide Russian forces with a staging ground to launch offensive operations against Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka, which form the fortress belt of four major cities in Donetsk Oblast.

ISW reports that Russian forces have focused on building tactical success near Ocheretyne and Novokalynove since around April 20, but “the rate of confirmed advances appears to have slowed as of April 30.”

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets provided details on the Russian units operating in various areas around Avdiivka.

The report notes that “Russian forces may decide to push from their salient north of Avdiivka towards the Toretsk area to complement Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, which would likely require Russian forces to conduct a tactical pause to concentrate forces for such a drive.”

However, an advance towards Toretsk would require longer pauses for Russian forces to reinforce units and redeploy additional troops to the Ocheretyne area, according to Mashovets. He stated the Russian Central Grouping has created a tactical reserve of three small infantry regiments in the Avdiivka direction.

Ukraine’s military reported earlier in April that the situation has intensified in recent days, with the Russians attempting to capture the settlement of Ivanivske and the outskirts of Bohdanivka, while also trying to break through to the town of Chasiv Yar.

As per a report by Politico, the strategic city of Chasiv Yar, located just 10 kilometers from the embattled town of Bakhmut, has become the latest focal point in Russia’s offensive, with Ukrainian officials warning that its fall could jeopardize the security of the remaining Ukrainian-held cities in the Donetsk Oblast.

Other takeaways from the report:

  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a short-range MGM-140 ATACMS strike against targets in occupied Crimea on the night of 30 April.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, and Robotyne.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on 30 April that Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov and First Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov inspected a drone testing ground in an unspecified area of occupied Ukraine.

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