The Biden administration wants to start moving weapons to Ukraine within days after approval of the long-awaited military aid package, Reuters reported.
On 20 April, the US House of Representatives voted in favor of the $60 billion in assistance to Kyiv. The aid for Ukraine had been stalled for months over objections from hard-right Republican lawmakers.
It will reach Ukraine later than anticipated, raising concerns among analysts about future assistance. Nonetheless, officials and experts believe that the provision of artillery rounds, precision-guided missiles, and air defenses will significantly alter Ukraine’s military capabilities and change the military outlook for Ukraine.
“With the boost that will come from military assistance, both practically and psychologically, the Ukrainians are entirely capable of holding their own through 2024 and puncturing Putin’s arrogant view that time is on his side,” said CIA Director William Burns at the Bush Center Forum on Leadership in Dallas.
Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said Kyiv has suffered significant losses due to the delay in approving new supplies.
“The aid is coming way too late, as material shortages resulted in Ukraine losing the initiative in October 2023,” explained the expert.
Since then, Ukraine has lost 583 square kilometers of territory to Russian forces, largely because of a lack of artillery, said Stepanenko. She added that Russia has had time to prepare for offensive operations expected in late spring or early summer.
Retired Vice Admiral Robert Murrett of the Institute for Security Policy and Law at Syracuse University mentioned that Ukraine’s military could use the weapons, like ATACMS missiles, air defense interceptors, and artillery shells, if the Senate approves the legislation.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has asked for ATACMS missiles multiple times. These long-range guided missiles help Ukraine target Russian command posts and weapons depots in Crimea.
Ukraine is also expected to get additional missiles for the Patriot air defense system, capable of intercepting Russia’s ballistic missiles.
According to Riki Ellison, founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, US weapons manufacturers have been increasing production of Patriot defense system missiles to fulfill the demand of Ukrainian air defense and ensure quick shipment.
Looking ahead beyond 2024, Ukraine might face another uncertainties, including the potential reelection of former US President Donald Trump, who voiced skepticism over large amounts of Ukraine aid.
“Ukraine needs to use 2024 to rebuild its force for the long war.
Europe’s goal should be to put itself in a position to potentially fill a future gap left by the US should it not pass another supplemental,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
If the US package is enacted into law, it could carry significant symbolic weight, according to Jeffrey Pryce, an international lawyer and senior fellow at the foreign policy institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Pryce suggests that beyond boosting Ukrainian morale, the US initiative could encourage other nations to provide aid as well. He emphasizes that when America takes the lead, it often encourages other countries to follow suit in offering assistance.
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