Russo-Ukrainian war, day 686: NATO vows ‘billions’ in arms for Ukraine in 2024 while EU aims to create €100 billion defense fund

Exclusive

“No support for Ukraine and its army”: PepsiCo restricts mentions of war in its PR?. Does Pepsi think it can ignore reality?

Russia left out in the cold as US sanctions torpedo LNG project. Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project now needs alternative investors, carriers, and equipment: its partners chose to leave over face the wrath of US third country sanctions

Military

Russian-launched guided bomb kills woman in Kharkiv Oblast. Russians have struck the village of Olkhovatka near the city of Kupiansk, which they try to seize. Russian strike on coal mine in Donetsk Oblast kills one. Last week, Russian troops shelled a nearby village, killing 11, including five children. Media: Two drones attack Russian Engels-2 strategic bombers’ base 630 km from Ukraine. Two drones reportedly struck Russia's Engels-2 strategic bomber base in Saratov Oblast over 600km from Ukraine, attack extent is unclear but base hosts bombers launching devastating missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. UK intel: Ukraine’s attacks on Russian bases indicate durable Crimea defense failures by Russia. Ukrainian raids on Russia's military targets in ocupied Crimea on 4 January likely degraded Russian air protections there, underscoring issues defending critical locations even after enhancing defenses, per UK intelligence. Exiled mayor exposes new Russian defense expansion over kilometers in southern Ukraine. Although Russian propaganda claims victories, forces build many new fortifications across occupied Zaporizhzhia to block Ukraine's advance, reveals exiled Melitopol mayor Ivan Fedorov. As of 09 Jan 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 365990 (+820)
    • Tanks: 6036 (+5)
    • APV: 11203 (+9)
    • Artillery systems: 8672 (+6)
    • MLRS: 954 (+1)
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 638
    • Aircraft: 329
    • Helicopters: 324
    • UAV: 6823 (+1)
    • Cruise missiles : 1805 (+18)
    • Warships/boats: 23
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 11552 (+10)

Intelligence and technology

EU market chief aims for €100 bn EU defense fund, ensures million shell production for Ukraine by spring. EU Internal Market Commissioner insists on meeting target of manufacturing 1 million shells for Ukraine by spring, unveils €100 billion EU defense fund to boost military capacity. UK intel: Russia’s accidental bombings point to deeper issues within Russia’s air forces. Russia's military aircraft accidentally discharging aerial bombs over Russian and Ukrainian villages in three incidents since April 2023 reflects systemic inadequacies like poor training, crew fatigue, and unsafe tactical execution, per UK intelligence.

International

NATO pledges ‘billions’ in 2024 arms for Ukraine. The statement announced this after the emergency Ukraine-NATO Council meeting in Brussels. Time for incisive diplomacy in Ukraine, said Italy’s defense minister. Guido Crosetto urges Ukraine-Russia negotiations for the third time in recent months. Ukraine and Lithuania launch security guarantee agreement talks. Lithuania has become the 9th country to engage in security guarantee talks with Ukraine. Ukraine to receive $200 million in military aid from Lithuania. The new package will include American armored command post vehicles, as well as ammunition and generators.

Humanitarian and social impact

Kadyrov’s Way: Chechen militants reward schoolkids with Mars sweets for aiding Ukraine war. Mars is one of the largest revenue generators and top taxpayers in Russia, earning 20% more in the first year of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Political and legal developments

Majority of Russians support Putin and war in Ukraine, poll shows. An independent poll shows that more than the majority of Russians support Putin's foreign policy and Russia's aggression in Ukraine. Bloomberg: Italian PM Meloni secretly urges Hungary’s Orban to unlock aid for Ukraine. In December 2023, Orban blocked €50 billion in aid for Ukraine. EU leaders will seek to reassess this issue during the emergency summit on 1 February. Read our earlier daily review here.