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ISW: Russia’s Avdiivka attacks aim to stop Ukraine reinforcements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast

ISW’s analysts say Russia does not have enough forces around Avdiivka to fully encircle the heavily fortified city.
Credit: ISW
ISW: Russia’s Avdiivka attacks aim to stop Ukraine reinforcements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Russia launched localized offensive operations in the Avdiivka area of Donetsk Oblast, ISW reported in its daily report on 10 October.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, this offensive is intended to pin down Ukrainian forces and prevent them from being transferred to support counterattacks in the Robotyne area, western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The Ukrainian General Staff also confirmed up to three Russian battalions conducted an attack in the Avdiivka direction

“The increased Russian offensive operations in the Avdiivka and Zherebyanky areas coincide with other localized offensive efforts in Luhansk Oblast and eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast,” ISW reported.

The think tank notes that capturing Avdiivka, one of the most heavily fortified parts of the Donbas frontline, would require far more Russian forces than currently deployed. ISW has “observed no recent Russian deployments to this line.”

Meanwhile, Ukrainian Armed Forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, reportedly with advances in that area.

Geolocated footage published on 9 October indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced northeast of Mykilske (3km southeast of Vuhledar and about 30km southeast of Velyka Novosilka).

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces achieved partial success near Andriivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).

Other takeaways from the ISW report:

  • The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed up to three Russian battalions conducted an attack in the Avdiivka direction, and ISW has observed footage of fighting in the area, but ISW has not observed any confirmation of these claimed Russian advances as of this writing.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced plans to open a new corridor through Moldova and Romania for the export of Ukrainian grain.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on 10 October.
  • The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Luhansk Oblast occupation authorities are cracking down against Ukrainian underground communication networks.

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