"However, such massive barrages, as was the case last October, November, and December, when they launched 70-100 rockets simultaneously – are most likely not going to happen again. The Russians realize that they may not achieve their goal but instead deplete their reserves, as was the situation last year," noted Deputy Head of GUR Vadym Skibitskyi.Skibitskyi further emphasized that Russia seems to have grasped the potential limitations of their approach, understanding that their resources could be depleted without achieving their intended objectives, much like the situation experienced last year. As the situation evolves, GUR anticipates potential shifts in Russia's tactics. Skibitskyi disclosed that Russian reconnaissance efforts are underway, focusing on identifying vulnerabilities in Ukrainian energy facilities and pinpointing anti-aircraft defense systems, likely to determine optimal launch routes for missiles. It's speculated that Russia might opt for a strategy involving 1 to 3 targeted strikes on a single facility or resort to mass drone and missile attacks. Ukrainian military officials believe that Russia's strategy will depend on its ability to accurately identify critical targets. While instances of widespread rocket barrages are expected to decline, more precise strikes remain a potential threat. Colonel Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Air Force Command, added his insights, suggesting that in future energy facility attacks, Russia might emphasize the use of drones.
"We know that Russia is ramping up its missile production. However, this alone might not be enough to maintain the same intensity of strikes as seen last autumn and winter – with weekly or bi-weekly barrages of 70 to 100 rockets over five months. Therefore, in my opinion, in case of new energy facility attacks, the enemy will likely resort to using strike UAVs more frequently," Ihnat stated.
